Tomorrow's Jobs Report..

[PohPoh]

Consensus is 115,000
The range is 50,000-147,000
Watch prior month's revisions..they could be a doooozy..

So..let's GOOOO to the videotape..

Jobs number BELOW Consensus range (sub 50,000)
The stock markets will groan initially, move back down to 1510-1515 level, and then continue rallying up to the 1580-90 level basis the ESZ...

Jobs number ABOVE Consensus range (above 147,000)
Markets selloff sharply, in anticipation of no more rate cuts..

Jobs number WITHIN consensus (50,000-147,000)
Markets continue to grind higher...

The big wildcard will be revisions to last month..
My guess is that we have a weak number this month (45,000)
But the revisions to last month will be UP 52,000...

 

[S2007S]

Quote from PohPoh:

Consensus is 115,000
The range is 50,000-147,000
Watch prior month's revisions..they could be a doooozy..

So..let's GOOOO to the videotape..

Jobs number BELOW Consensus range (sub 50,000)
The stock markets will groan initially, move back down to 1510-1515 level, and then continue rallying up to the 1580-90 level basis the ESZ...

Jobs number ABOVE Consensus range (above 147,000)
Markets selloff sharply, in anticipation of no more rate cuts..

Jobs number WITHIN consensus (50,000-147,000)
Markets continue to grind higher...

The big wildcard will be revisions to last month..
My guess is that we have a weak number this month (45,000)
But the revisions to last month will be UP 52,000...

-45,000 for the month of sept??

thats pretty significant.

Im going to pay attention to the revisions.

Anything north of 100k and forget about any kind of rate cut. They usually like to cut a few times in a row, but this job number can really take things into a different perspective.