You are using an out of date browser. It may not display this or other websites correctly.
You should upgrade or use an alternative browser.
You should upgrade or use an alternative browser.
Tomorrow's Chart Today-Part 2
- Thread starter interdim
- Start date
Emanuel Derman on Uncertainty
“….In physics you have absolute values. If you want to shoot a rocket to the moon, you can use Newton's laws and the gravitational constant. In finance you can't make absolute predictions. You try to figure out the value of something by relating it to the value of something more simple…”
Thought I would toss that in...Smile. Market jumped 2 points, trend traders immediately sold it but will they succeed in keeping it down? Going to be harder for them to do so.
Back to Derman's comments, keeping this simple has always been an objective. I can tell and come pretty close to determining when 2 polynomials are going in the same direction or not, and at about what data point in time they begin or end going in the same direction or not.
“….In physics you have absolute values. If you want to shoot a rocket to the moon, you can use Newton's laws and the gravitational constant. In finance you can't make absolute predictions. You try to figure out the value of something by relating it to the value of something more simple…”
Thought I would toss that in...Smile. Market jumped 2 points, trend traders immediately sold it but will they succeed in keeping it down? Going to be harder for them to do so.
Back to Derman's comments, keeping this simple has always been an objective. I can tell and come pretty close to determining when 2 polynomials are going in the same direction or not, and at about what data point in time they begin or end going in the same direction or not.
Whenever I see the polynomials opposing each other in the charts I posted it tells me that a good trend is not likely to develop. My bias is still to the upside. I did finally buy it at 57.00 during the 1230 retrace and if they get through the 5 Minute Bollinger Band Moving Average I might hit my target of 5 points. I already have a break even stop at 57.00, so they have to break the 1330 30 minute low of 57.25 to take me out. You can easily see why 1230 was a retrace in the charts.