Shoyou says:Housing peaked in 06, likely a couple more years before the bottom. Take a look at the chart and the double top
The probability of a "freefall" or precipitous market decline at this point is small, there is tremendous short interest right now.
New highs in August on weak volume is likely
Thanks for contributing something intelligent Shoyou. You could be wrong, but at least your comment is reasonable. It would seem that the next move of the Fed will likely be up not down, as real inflation is substantial as reflected in the weak dollar, driven by our government's attempt to monetarize the debt. So if we look a little beyond august and the likely disappointment of some shorts, we may well see some further decline in the market. But it is anyone's guess when the Fed will act. If I had to guess though, i'd say before 2007 is out. I expect the market is anticipating this and reflecting it in relatively high short interest. I just returned from Brazil where the dollar dropped from 1.95 Reais to 1.89 in the brief period i was there.