Today's jobs numbers and the market's (over)reaction. EPI calls BS.

PlusMinus · Dec 4, 2009

Some excerpts from this report, which I take with some grain of salt since it refers to the canard of saving or creating jobs, which is a measure that is removed from any serious analytical method. Nonetheless, the rest makes sense and I believe the market bulls are navigating their boats into a storm that will devour them in Q1 2010:

http://www.epi.org/analysis_and_opi...arket_though_unemployment_remains_in_double_/

Since the start of the recession in December 2007, an estimated 8.0 million jobs have been lost. This number includes both the 7.2 million jobs lost in the payroll data as currently published and the preliminary annual benchmark revision (released on October 2nd), which showed an additional 824,000 jobs lost from April 2008 to March 2009. But even this number understates the magnitude of the hole in the labor market by failing to take into account the fact that the population is always growing. To keep up with population growth, the economy needs to add approximately 127,000 jobs every month, which translates into 2.9 million jobs over the 23 months since the start of the recession. This means the labor market is currently 10.9 million jobs below the level needed to restore the pre-recession employment rate. In order to fully fill in the gap in the labor market in the next two years (by November 2011), employment would have to increase by an average of 581,000 jobs every month between now and then. This kind of sustained employment growth hasnât been seen in nearly 60 years (1950-51), when gross domestic product grew at a 9.2% annual rate.

And..

Although layoffs are moderating significantly, hiring is not yet picking up, and thus unemployed workers are not able to find jobs. In November, an additional 293,000 jobless workers had joined the ranks of those unemployed for over six months. Of the 15.4 million unemployed workers in this country, 5.9 million (38.3%) have been jobless for over six months. This is 3.8% of the total labor forceâfar surpassing the previous peak of 2.6% set in June 1983. Currently, the average unemployment spell is over six months (28.5 weeks), and the median unemployment spell is nearly five months (20.1 weeks), both of which break previous records.

And...

The labor force declined by another 98,000 workers in November. In the last six months, the size of the labor force has declined by 1.2 million workers, when we would have expected it to increase by around 800,000 over that period. When these missing workers start reentering the workforce, it will push the unemployment rate up.

Furthermore, the official unemployment count understates slack in the labor market by excluding both the jobless who want work but have given up looking (âmarginally attachedâ workers) and people who are working but canât get the full-time hours they want (âinvoluntary part-timeâ workers). In November, there were 2.2 million marginally attached workers, 9.2 million involuntary part-timers, and 15.4 million unemployed workers in the United States, for a total of 26.9 million workers who are either unemployed or underemployed. This represents 17.2% of U.S. workers, up from 8.7% at the beginning of the downturn in December 2007.

But yeah uhm, it's all good. Nothing to see here.

EMRGLOBAL · Dec 4, 2009

Economic numbers such as ISM and today's Unemployment Report are pointing to a Recovery, faster than expected.

Non-Manfacturing numbers where weak on the Service Sector side but that is expected, with the consumer still nervous.

Never the less, you can't argue with the current data and the market.

I'm long CL (Crude) as of today. I expect a rally in the next week or so.

However, the over all economy is looking stronger than I expected.

There are still risk present. But, all in all, we may be coming out of this depression faster than even I thought. Time will tell.

jnorty · Dec 5, 2009

emrglobal i don't like to say it but you're full of shit. the economy is a disaster. BASICALLY YOU'RE SAYING BECAUSE THE # TODAY BEAT SOME RIGGED LIEING BULLSHIT ESTIMATE ITS GOOD. go do your homework. at this month during the last recovery in 2003 the economy was adding over 200k jobs a month and the weekly claims were under 350k. oh and p/e's were 1/2 what they are now and the mkt was up 35% off its lows versus 70% now. whats been lost during this whole 8 month rally is the way wall street has shaped peoples expectations to accept super low ball ests. so wall street has had the power to use any ests they want and as long as the company beats it no matter how low it is
everyone gets excited and they sky the stock. this whole mkt and economy is a farce.

PlusMinus · Dec 5, 2009

Quote from jnorty:

emrglobal i don't like to say it but you're full of shit. the economy is a disaster. BASICALLY YOU'RE SAYING BECAUSE THE # TODAY BEAT SOME RIGGED LIEING BULLSHIT ESTIMATE ITS GOOD. go do your homework. at this month during the last recovery in 2003 the economy was adding over 200k jobs a month and the weekly claims were under 350k. oh and p/e's were 1/2 what they are now and the mkt was up 35% off its lows versus 70% now. whats been lost during this whole 8 month rally is the way wall street has shaped peoples expectations to accept super low ball ests. so wall street has had the power to use any ests they want and as long as the company beats it no matter how low it is
everyone gets excited and they sky the stock. this whole mkt and economy is a farce.

LOL. So right on. "You can't argue with the numbers"??? That is exactly what this thread is about, and the link I posted gives some strong arguments. Please by all means, refute them on the merit, I would love some good contrarian input, but it has to be based on something on this planet we call earth.

nasdaqmadness · Dec 5, 2009

Quote from jnorty:

emrglobal i don't like to say it but you're full of shit. the economy is a disaster. BASICALLY YOU'RE SAYING BECAUSE THE # TODAY BEAT SOME RIGGED LIEING BULLSHIT ESTIMATE ITS GOOD. go do your homework. at this month during the last recovery in 2003 the economy was adding over 200k jobs a month and the weekly claims were under 350k. oh and p/e's were 1/2 what they are now and the mkt was up 35% off its lows versus 70% now. whats been lost during this whole 8 month rally is the way wall street has shaped peoples expectations to accept super low ball ests. so wall street has had the power to use any ests they want and as long as the company beats it no matter how low it is
everyone gets excited and they sky the stock. this whole mkt and economy is a farce.

jnorty
I totally agree. The BS just keeps flowing. The sad thing is that BS is probably the only tool they have left to con the sheep.

ralph00 · Dec 5, 2009

I was on epi's site. They may or may not be right about their jobs report analysis, but let's not act as if this group is some dispassionalte organization. These guys would have a problem is the jobs number was +300K.

epi is a a liberal, pro-union, pro higher minimum wage, anit-free trade, ... group. They are always carping about the 'plight of the 'working american'. Its founders include such geniuses as Lester Thurow and Robert Reich. If you look in the dictionary under 'Idiot Ivy League economist who has never been right about anything' you get Thurow's picture (above Krugman).

S2007S · Dec 5, 2009

Quote from jnorty:

emrglobal i don't like to say it but you're full of shit. the economy is a disaster. BASICALLY YOU'RE SAYING BECAUSE THE # TODAY BEAT SOME RIGGED LIEING BULLSHIT ESTIMATE ITS GOOD. go do your homework. at this month during the last recovery in 2003 the economy was adding over 200k jobs a month and the weekly claims were under 350k. oh and p/e's were 1/2 what they are now and the mkt was up 35% off its lows versus 70% now. whats been lost during this whole 8 month rally is the way wall street has shaped peoples expectations to accept super low ball ests. so wall street has had the power to use any ests they want and as long as the company beats it no matter how low it is
everyone gets excited and they sky the stock. this whole mkt and economy is a farce.

Agree as well, seems 99% of the people here don't want to take the time to understand the reality of what the fed is actually doing to prop the economy up. Bubble Ben is doing the same exact thing bubble greenspan did and everyone should know greenspans ways is what led to this crisis.

Misthos · Dec 5, 2009

These are the last 2009 unemployment numbers to be published by the federal government - right before the Xmas shopping season

Nothing to see here folks.

Good numbers = happy shoppers

Now wives can shop without feeling insecure that their husbands may lose their jobs.

CHARGE AWAY!

number22 · Dec 5, 2009

Quote from Misthos:

These are the last 2009 unemployment numbers to be published by the federal government - right before the Xmas shopping season

Nothing to see here folks.

Good numbers = happy shoppers

Now wives can shop without feeling insecure that their husbands may lose their jobs.

CHARGE AWAY!

Agree! Sometime, it is so oblivious, you see lie in front of you. I was thinking they can't put bad number out to smash this Christmas spirit, at same time, inject some fears into shorting USD camp.

Misthos · Dec 5, 2009

Quote from number22:

Agree! Sometime, it is so oblivious, you see lie in front of you. I was thinking they can't put bad number out to smash this Christmas spirit, at same time, inject some fears into shorting USD camp.

Yup - two birds, one stone.