As Peter Steidlmayer used to teach, there is a small set of commercial traders who trade with such volume and such intensity that their trade often forms local extremes.
In the days of old these traders and their actions were easily spotted from within the pit. Today those traders whose action forms local extremes are often not traders but computer code.
This code runs on data feeds that can cost up to and more than a thousand dollars a day. Orders are auto-executed in the microsecond time frame and backed by unlimited resources.
Anyone with direct experience with the application of such systems will verify that great lengths are taken to 1) disguise this trade and 2) increase the effectiveness of the buy or sell by making both buys and sells - as they used to say in the past - "sometimes you can sell a few to help you buy many at a better price." When when backed by unlimited resources and done by very smart code executing in the microsceond time frame, this approach can be very effective indeed, plus it confuses the competition.
The bad news is that a huge amount of resources and very fast, very smart code makes for very tough compeition. The good news is that when such trade happens - it is not hard to spot.
We have built an indicator designed to spot this trade. We describe the calculation of this indicator as - - "When taken in combination, the acceleration and deceleration of buying and selling volumes, total volume and the velocity/rate of change in the balance of trade reveal a certain dynamic that we find present at many, if not most, intra-session extremes.
Today's (Monday 24th) trade was no exception.
The first chart below shows the session high which occurred at 0808 PST at 1035 up 5.5 points from the open of the day session.
The second chart shows the session low which occurred at 1221 PST - down 13.75 points from the session high.
In this chart of the session high please note that the spike in commercial selling occurred 2-3 minutes before the last tick at the high.
Today's session low occurred at 1221 pst - down 13.75 points from the high and was, again, indicated by INTENSE comercial activity on the buy side. Note that this very detectable spike happened more than 10 minutes before but still within 1 point of the session low.
In the days of old these traders and their actions were easily spotted from within the pit. Today those traders whose action forms local extremes are often not traders but computer code.
This code runs on data feeds that can cost up to and more than a thousand dollars a day. Orders are auto-executed in the microsecond time frame and backed by unlimited resources.
Anyone with direct experience with the application of such systems will verify that great lengths are taken to 1) disguise this trade and 2) increase the effectiveness of the buy or sell by making both buys and sells - as they used to say in the past - "sometimes you can sell a few to help you buy many at a better price." When when backed by unlimited resources and done by very smart code executing in the microsceond time frame, this approach can be very effective indeed, plus it confuses the competition.
The bad news is that a huge amount of resources and very fast, very smart code makes for very tough compeition. The good news is that when such trade happens - it is not hard to spot.
We have built an indicator designed to spot this trade. We describe the calculation of this indicator as - - "When taken in combination, the acceleration and deceleration of buying and selling volumes, total volume and the velocity/rate of change in the balance of trade reveal a certain dynamic that we find present at many, if not most, intra-session extremes.
Today's (Monday 24th) trade was no exception.
The first chart below shows the session high which occurred at 0808 PST at 1035 up 5.5 points from the open of the day session.
The second chart shows the session low which occurred at 1221 PST - down 13.75 points from the session high.
In this chart of the session high please note that the spike in commercial selling occurred 2-3 minutes before the last tick at the high.
Today's session low occurred at 1221 pst - down 13.75 points from the high and was, again, indicated by INTENSE comercial activity on the buy side. Note that this very detectable spike happened more than 10 minutes before but still within 1 point of the session low.
