Right now is a very bullish time of the year. Stocks are being bid up irrationally for quite a few reasons. Some of the stocks are trading way beyond their fundamentals. Everyone is discounting future problems like recession and economic downturn.
Mastercard had settled one of the minor lawsuits against them.
http://www.mastercard.com/us/company/en/newsroom/resolved_litigation.html
This gave investors confidence. As you said, the RIMM lawsuit was settled so investors figure why cant Mastercard do so as well?
The RIMM lawsuit was different in nature and fact then the AMEX/Discovery lawsuits. In the RIMM lawsuit, it was the estate of a man who had patented the idea of electronic mail. They just wanted cash.
However, AMEX/Discovery are major competitors with Mastercard with nothing to lose and everything to gain. They are not going to settle for a few hundred million.
http://money.cnn.com/2006/06/16/news/companies/mastercard_litigation/index.htm
The street is also betting that the stock will go down. Short interest has only increased, not decreased.
http://www.nasdaq.com/asp/quotes_fu...pe=&mkttype=&pathname=&page=short&selected=MA
The nature of lawsuits is secretive until they come to an open courtroom. One of the initial steps towards litigation is discovery. Once the discovery process is set in motion, then the cat will be let out of the bag.
Traders and investors have tunnel vision and usually only see the cash. They dont see such problems like recession and lawsuits around the corner. They make excuses pointing to unrelated issues like RIMM.
Right now Mastercard is the king, just like Hansens was last year. Next year will be different. Look at how Mastercard dropped quick today on a simple durable goods report. You know there are plenty more reports this week that could either be good or bad.
Imagine a complex legal process or recession. Mastercard will come back down.
Last year, stocks were bid up right until May and then they came down hard. Next year will only be a variation of 2006. There will be a point in which there will be a house of pain. Then another rebound.
Quote from stock_trad3r:
Then why is it still going up if it is doomed? I can guarantee you nothing will materialize that will affect the stock price much.