Today's BONDS!

You caught all those moves like the rest of us did, didn't you? :D

Quote from SethArb:

sheesh

for a minute or so before the FED announcement

the treasuries rallied sharply , then dove to session lows

then after the FED announcement
they rallied again to new highs , before dropping again

sheesh ... my neck is hurting ....
:p
More...
 
Quote from daddyeaux:

I think Dr. Alan Greenjeans has been into the mushrooms.
More...


At this point it's almost irrelevant. The Bond market has taken the matter in its own hands, thank goodness.

I've been short Bonds since the third week in March. It's been a great ride so far with a lot left to go in it. This is probably an eighteen month long trade.

Had they tightened today shares probably would have had a 2-3% up move. Now if he's not going to raise before summer, at a minimum, shares are due for a pretty bad couple of months. And with these valuations they may even get smoked in here.

Viva la Chairman MaGoo!!


Regards,
Dr. Zhivodka
 
Quote from SethArb:

does that not put a bid on treasuries?
More...

Just the opposite.

As the "Carry Trade" comes unwound it puts upward pressure on the USD and downward pressure on Bonds as the yield curve flattens.

IMO, a "flatten curve " play is good to go for awhile.

But hea, that's just me. :cool:

Regards,
Dr. Z
 
Quote from daddyeaux:

I think Dr. Alan Greenjeans has been into the mushrooms.

He obviously doesn't buy his own gasoline or health insurance.

1% Fed funds at a time when cost of living is going up 5-10%.

reminds me of Brazil a few years ago.
More...

I agree 100%... but I take this with a different meaning. Alan knows exactly whats going on.. but he is just delaying the inevitable.

The whole US financial monetary base is a complete joke. Our system is so screwed up that when we are growing our fastest we cant even raise rates off half century lows. Tells me that something is really whacky. Look at England.. they are at %4 and freakin Aussie is over %5. We are supposed to be the world leaders and we are starting to look like latin america.

The truth is that Greenspan will go down in history as the worst Fed in US history when this whole thing plays out.. all he did in his lifetime from taking over in 1987.. was keep on pumping dollars like a spanish hooker and bring rates down to negative real rates.

US monetary policy has been completely reckless and he is supposed to tell the morons on capitol hill to cool down the insane spending because we cant afford it anymore. I read on MSNBC that Alaska is building 2 bridges worth $2.2 billion. The whole thing is insane.

We need to get rid of Greenspan and get a responsible Fed that is not influenced by politics or massaging bogus CPI data. We probably should outsource a new Fed from England.. because they dont bullsh*t around.


--MIKE
 
carry trade ... that has to be unwound ...

my point is if this is happening ... why is the USD getting weaker ?

should not rising interest rates give the USD a firm bid ?
 
Quote from SethArb:


should not rising interest rates give the USD a firm bid ?
More...

Aside from the past few days, the USD has found a bid as bonds have sold off, no? (at least vs. the Euro)
 
Quote from SethArb:

carry trade ... that has to be unwound ...

my point is if this is happening ... why is the USD getting weaker ?

should not rising interest rates give the USD a firm bid ?
More...

Good question... just to put things into very simple perspective.

USD rates at %1 and are not moving for months.

EURO at %2. England at %4 ( will raise rates to %4.25 this friday) .. Aussie at %5.25.

Simplest reason as to why curruncies move up is the money flows to the country with the highest rates. Its called interest rate differential.

The problem is that the Fed will not budge for months.. and promises to raise them only modestly. He is stalling because he knows that the US economy is so fragile that even if he hikes a fraction the deck of cards might fall apart. The big banks know this so they are gonna continue discounting the dollar.. we are the last horse in the race when it comes to sustainable growth. Also by delaying the necessary action of responsible fiscal control the Fed increases the rate of US inflation which is what the big banks try to avoid. The big bucks will flow to where the parked money will yield a good return and most importantly a safe one (non inflationary).

Many of the big banks doubt the US recovery because after all is said and done.. we still have the lowest rates and easiest money policy. This means the dollar is not gonna finda bid for quite some time.. whats probably gonna happen is we base at these levels for many more months.. where the dollar will back and fill.


--MIKE
 
The dollar's rally the past two months was precipitated by the ananticipation of a less accomodative Fed. Tightings have been priced in. Hence the 10% correction in the Euro. Now it's back to a matter of cross rates. IMO the Bund's reluctancy to break in earnest (the Bund hasn't even taken out it's February lows might keep a lid on renewed Euro strength. I see the dollar range bound here from 118-123.
 
Quote from SethArb:

carry trade ... that has to be unwound ...

my point is if this is happening ... why is the USD getting weaker ?

should not rising interest rates give the USD a firm bid ?
More...


Check your charts mate. The USD has not been going down. And the curve is getting flatter.

At some point one must move away from conventional wisdom. The earlier the better.

Take it for what you will

I'm out.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top