Today's BONDS!
- Thread starter waggie945
- Start date
Quote from waggie945:
The market was expecting numbers that were THREE TIMES stronger than what came out. True, there was a mild upward revision from last month, AND you can say that the SAFEWAY GROCERY WORKERS STRIKE also accounted for another 26,000-31,000 workers.
In any event, the Bond market was set-up technically ( just look at the Daily's ) for this move, and there are a lot of guys out there that are looking to sell the S&P and buy bonds as well.
Should the S&P take a dive next week, the Bonds could surprise some people on the upside for a bit.
Just think about this for a minute . . .
Companies just got thru the third quarter which saw 8.2% GDP growth and they didn't have to really add anyone to the payrolls. . . So if 8.2% doesn't significantly add any job creation, then why would an employer even begin to have any kind of mindset other than "sitting on the sidelines" when he knows that the economy will most likely return to more milder growth like 4-5% over the next 2 quarters?
Seems like there is still a lot of capacity around in the system.
Just my 2 cents.
Believe me, employment numbers are a lagging indicator.
You're on. With every1 predicting a rate rise next year, I'll stay in the camp that forecasts flat to lower rates for a few years more.
Are the electronic bond contracts at cbot still a/c/e or has that been replaced by ecbot or is that something else? I noticed that IB doesn't mention ecbot but stills lists the bonds and notes as ACE.
I have simple (maybe too simple) question. If interest rates rise, what will happen to the 10 year note (ZN)? Does it "have" to go down, or can it go up as rates rise? Sort of like the "good earnings" phenomenon in stocks. If the earnings are good, but not good enough, the stock tanks.
I have been comparing comments with the activity of bonds and noticed that the recent rally (early-mid november) was explained by "worries about the market" Strange indeed
I have been comparing comments with the activity of bonds and noticed that the recent rally (early-mid november) was explained by "worries about the market" Strange indeed
Bonds don't switch till the first of the year. The change is transparent to non-direct users. It's not a new exchange. Just a new platform. The CBOT's deal with LIFFE is much like the old deal with Eurex...not an equity partnership, but merely a licensing agreement in which the Board uses the other exchanges software.
You must first define "interest rates." When the 10 year goes down in price it's implied yield goes up. That does not mean that just because the Federal Reserve raises the discount rate or the funds target, that yield's of longer duration securities must rise. First of all the market attempts to "price in" it's expectation of further Fed action. For instance shorter maturity's are discounted in price with the notion that the Fed will aggressively tighten in 2004. If the Fed does not tighten then shorter maturity's will skyrocket in price (yield's falling), while longer duration issues will respond less favorably. A rule of thumb is that shorter maturity's trade at higher yield volatility than longer issues during Fed policy cycles, and the long end trades at higher vol. during transitional periods.
Thanks for the info regarding bonds. By interest rates, I mean fed tightening. So, I guess eventual tightening is priced into the 10 year note today? It all depends on when and how much?