Monday's pricing.
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Today's Action
- Thread starter Dave at NextDay
- Start date
Am I interpreting this correctly? That you are expecting a slight rise in the markets for Monday?Quote from Dave at NextDay:
Monday's pricing.
I forecast the coming market move differently from others. I look at where the German DAX is at the US open. If the DAX is relatively high, I believe it has to sink some. For the DAX to sink, the US has to sink also. The DAX closes at 11:30 US eastern time. Where the DAX closes, the US will close also, to some extent. Of course, my strategy sometimes doesn't work.
Going by that strategy, my forecast for Monday is we get our usual Monday morning sell off, then we rise all day. (Monday morning sell offs are more likely to occur when our futures are as high as they currently are.)
Good luck, Dave, everyone!
Quote from Petsamo:
Am I interpreting this correctly? That you are expecting a slight rise in the markets for Monday?
I forecast the coming market move differently from others. I look at where the German DAX is at the US open. If the DAX is relatively high, I believe it has to sink some. For the DAX to sink, the US has to sink also. The DAX closes at 11:30 US eastern time. Where the DAX closes, the US will close also, to some extent. Of course, my strategy sometimes doesn't work.
Going by that strategy, my forecast for Monday is we get our usual Monday morning sell off, then we rise all day. (Monday morning sell offs are more likely to occur when our futures are as high as they currently are.)
Good luck, Dave, everyone!
The premarket is looking decent, but I'll know more and post shortly after the open. A couple items to notice when looking at the valuation chart and price targets combined: If I'm looking for my next long entry, ideally I'd like to see both smoothed averages below 1 standard. From there, if the price action is playing itself near/at the lower targets, I begin looking for a pickup. That depends on the internal strength, which I'll discuss in a second.
You'll notice that the target prices begin to compress at their respective limits during times of volatility. If the market starts getting more active, the calc includes recent volatilities of each stock which widens the extremes and can compress them to the point that they're virtually the same number.
I'm attaching a pic of the strength. Conceptually, it measures the balance of new highs/new lows of the portfolio during the day. I run standard deviations on that number which is a whole other discussion for another time. It's expressed as a percentage from +100% to -100%. Most day's sit between +-40%. If day gives those numbers and we see a sell off to my lower targets, I'll take the long. If the internals start failing to the -60% or worse, no deal. I stand aside until the next day.
As you can see in the pic, Friday progressively failed, starting mid day, below the lower horizontal line which is the -40% level. You might notice the prior two days and compare them to the respective price action and you begin to get the idea. Wed was within the 40% levels and fit my criteria which enabled me to take advantage of the up move over the next day.
The open just occurred and my internals are just average right now. I normally give them 10 to 15 minutes to shape up; being a swing trader, I don't jump on entries immediately at the open, so it gives me a little more room.
I like you're analysis, as it fits well with what I'd like the market to do. I'm back on the job today, so I'll keep you posted.
Attachments
Forgot to mention that the strength chart runs the same calc but expressed from two different perspectives, plotted on the top & bottom half of the screen. The top is taking each stock relative to its previous day's close and the bottom looks at it from each stock's respective open of today. Right now, closes have been hanging between +40 to +50% and the opens are pretty neutral, between +-20%.
All I can do is be patient and wait for my criteria. If I miss it and the market moves up and away, leaving my at the train station, I don't worry about it; minor aggravation, but no worries. I just wait for the next opportunity. Gives me more time for golf.
All I can do is be patient and wait for my criteria. If I miss it and the market moves up and away, leaving my at the train station, I don't worry about it; minor aggravation, but no worries. I just wait for the next opportunity. Gives me more time for golf.
Attachments
Found myself joining the party and got lucky just prior to the breakout. Took half my position off once it hit the upper target (cash 1202.62) but am letting the other half run. Attached is the valuation pic; I'll leave my swing/position on until I get above 1 standard. The other side of the equation is that tomorrow is a stinker and I get flattened at breakeven.
Attachments
Quote from Petsamo:
Sold JPM too early (43.12), anticipating a sell off that never materialized. Bought FCX at 72.41 to hold to settlement and, hopefully, beyond.
I'll attach both the FCX & JPM charts, but think I can only attach one at a time, so I'll follow this up with the 2nd chart. Excellent pickup on the FCX; couldn't have bot that one much better than you did.
JPM looks like it's had a nice sell off over the past couple weeks. Notice something on the JPM chart. When I get sell offs and it looks like a stock or market is in for a nice retracement after it's had a decent run, the valuation deviation goes deep to 2+ standards and barely rallies to the mean. You're coming off a 50+% retracement since the Feb 5 bottom, so if it's going to make a move, it seems like a pretty low risk, high probability trade at this point. Let me know how it works out.
If you need any graphics on anything else, let me know, if it seems of any help.