Today will be the Beginning of one of the massive bubble corrections in..............
- Thread starter hayman
- Start date
I got bearish as soon as the iwm went negative.
23 Handles later , I covered for a nice score.
as bob111 mentioned, experienced traders don't need fancy stochastics, or any other math crutch.
you can smell it just before they take a dump.
smells like......
the diff tween great and crap traders, is the crap traders predict 20 sell offs and get it right once. the good ones , well, you figure it out.
tomorrow is another day.
it's not an indicator,but something to keep in mind. like..i don't know..a wheel in the car. can be used as a part of the system. Josef just showed it in simplest form,demonstrating relative performance.
since we have so many small range days,many many stocks are stuck in tight range with probably a lot of stops on each side. once this 'ball' starts rolling in either direction-we got a great directional day out of it. i'm scathing my head about how to program this thing and back test it. or at least discuss in some thread.
You know, there are three ways the market can move. Up, down, sideways. Just because something has stopped moving up does not mean it will commence moving down.
Today I got a signal that the upward movement beginning on April 18 is done. It was a throw over (pictured in the top chart). Sure enough, not too long after, the price broke my lower support trendline of the April 18 run in the SPY. But, there is a bigger picture too. The November 16, 2012 rally, of which the April 18 run is likely the last leg.
The upper resistance line in the November 16, 2012 rally was broken on May 14, 2013 (botom picture). From the picture, you can see that the price dropped today and landed precisely on that resistance line (now support). There may very well be another rally in the coming days as one more attempt is made to convince the population that all is well. I'm not completely bearish until that line is broken (sitting at 165.18 now), but the fate of this move has already been sealed. And by that I don't mean a bear trend, I just mean a "NOT Bull" trend. Could be bear, but probably some sort of voaltile consolidation period with large ups and downs. As for tomorrow, I'm bullish. Who knows, todays peak may be challenged before this really tilts.
Today I got a signal that the upward movement beginning on April 18 is done. It was a throw over (pictured in the top chart). Sure enough, not too long after, the price broke my lower support trendline of the April 18 run in the SPY. But, there is a bigger picture too. The November 16, 2012 rally, of which the April 18 run is likely the last leg.
The upper resistance line in the November 16, 2012 rally was broken on May 14, 2013 (botom picture). From the picture, you can see that the price dropped today and landed precisely on that resistance line (now support). There may very well be another rally in the coming days as one more attempt is made to convince the population that all is well. I'm not completely bearish until that line is broken (sitting at 165.18 now), but the fate of this move has already been sealed. And by that I don't mean a bear trend, I just mean a "NOT Bull" trend. Could be bear, but probably some sort of voaltile consolidation period with large ups and downs. As for tomorrow, I'm bullish. Who knows, todays peak may be challenged before this really tilts.
Do your parents know what kind of fantasy world you live in? You still have yet to call a live trade in 10 years on this site. Shameful...
Here's another view of things. I've been using a chart of the daily ES, and I have a channel that goes back to November. There were two small pokes above the channel on Monday and Tuesday, and today we had a larger move above it that might be called a channel overshoot, which is a reversal signal. Given the relatively strong selling volume today and the fact that the move up since 5/3 hasn't encountered any strong resistance on the daily chart, we should have a pullback to at least 1600, which would probably end up coinciding with the bottom channel line.
A huge caveat here is that when drawing long trendlines, a slight adjustment of the angle can produce a different technical picture. Hence, what we're doing here to a significant degree is imposing our own view of things on the data.
I dunno. I think it's different this time. I remember back in maybe 2000, a friend asking me if she should take her insurance settlement and put it into the market. Even back then, I said, can you afford to lose it ? People seem to be much more cautious now. I think there is still a lot of cash on the sidelines. And most stocks are still relatively cheap vis a vis 2000 (even though the indicies seem to be hitting new highs every day) (e.g. GE around 2000 was 60, at the moment it's trading at 23.86). When stocks become expensive, then I'd worry (just my opinion).
NIKKEI down 7.3% thanks to Chinese data, taking a big chunk out of my little portfolio. EURUSD up, offsetting "big chunk".
âYou know it's time to sell when the deli sandwich kid gives you stock tips." -- hayman kennedy
It just occurred to me that that deli clerk could be an ET member: an "expert" trader trying to finance his trading career.
