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to the bears
- Thread starter Bitstream
- Start date
this gem is the reference by the way:
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=112575
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=112575
I'm a bear that will bite. Do you believe in cycles or do you buy into the stock trad3r theory of endless consumerism, web 2.0 and all that non-sense that we love him for.
From the Economist-
"In America, profits are running at around a 40-year high as a proportion of GDP. Some people, such as Andrew Smithers, an independent strategist, argue that they are doomed to return to the mean. But others argue that profits can be sustained because of the effects of globalization: the emergence of China and India has shifted the balance of power in favor of capital and against labor.
The question is important because of the measure that investors rely on to assess market valuations: the price-earnings ratio. Optimists argue that, on the basis of forecast profits, shares look cheap by historical standards. But the pessimists say this is because profits are cyclically high; use a smoothed average of profits and valuations are as high as they were before the crash of 1929."
I for one believe in cycles. More importantly, I believe that there are several different factors that are coincidentally coming together at the same time to create the perfect storm of a recession, each not enough in its own right to create it but collectively extremely harmful. This one's going to hurt.
From the Economist-
"In America, profits are running at around a 40-year high as a proportion of GDP. Some people, such as Andrew Smithers, an independent strategist, argue that they are doomed to return to the mean. But others argue that profits can be sustained because of the effects of globalization: the emergence of China and India has shifted the balance of power in favor of capital and against labor.
The question is important because of the measure that investors rely on to assess market valuations: the price-earnings ratio. Optimists argue that, on the basis of forecast profits, shares look cheap by historical standards. But the pessimists say this is because profits are cyclically high; use a smoothed average of profits and valuations are as high as they were before the crash of 1929."
I for one believe in cycles. More importantly, I believe that there are several different factors that are coincidentally coming together at the same time to create the perfect storm of a recession, each not enough in its own right to create it but collectively extremely harmful. This one's going to hurt.
I don't trade dailies/weeklies, so this is just my opinion based on how I trade short term charts.
Edit - for now, if I was to trade weekly signals I would have to be ready to go Long based on technicals, not what my bias might be telling me.
<img src=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=1726673>
Edit - for now, if I was to trade weekly signals I would have to be ready to go Long based on technicals, not what my bias might be telling me.
<img src=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=1726673>
Attachments
First, any serious Bear would not call a BEAR market or worry about one just based on Charts alone. That is a fools game picking the top.
The are many reasons to see the BEAR coming.
Liquidity problems that are breaking down banks.
The over flow from such a problem into Credit Card debt, refi's that are no longer and the trend of devaluation in housing wealth...(The housing market has yet to really take a dive, price wise. Plenty of down side".
Trade Deficit,
The dollar has lost more than 30% of its value since 2002 or so.
Consumer is starting to feel the pinch of higher energy prices, which are going higher.
True inflation, from eggs to Porn.
There are more signals than "Charts" to create a true BEAR.
I am more than BEARISH. However, even Bears will go long and make money.
Charts by themselfs mean nothing.
If you traded back in april 2000, you will understand what the Volatility is telling you. However, it is not telling you the exact time for a true reversal.
The are many reasons to see the BEAR coming.
Liquidity problems that are breaking down banks.
The over flow from such a problem into Credit Card debt, refi's that are no longer and the trend of devaluation in housing wealth...(The housing market has yet to really take a dive, price wise. Plenty of down side".
Trade Deficit,
The dollar has lost more than 30% of its value since 2002 or so.
Consumer is starting to feel the pinch of higher energy prices, which are going higher.
True inflation, from eggs to Porn.
There are more signals than "Charts" to create a true BEAR.
I am more than BEARISH. However, even Bears will go long and make money.
Charts by themselfs mean nothing.
If you traded back in april 2000, you will understand what the Volatility is telling you. However, it is not telling you the exact time for a true reversal.
Quote from EMRGLOBAL:
Charts by themselfs mean nothing.
Chart traders will argue with you on this one, reviewing fundamentals will rarely give a point in time when you can be comfortably opening a position reducing risk of potential drawdown/loss, technicals on the other hand DO indicate when we either grab a falling knife or join a wave. "Trade what you see", we are not talking about investing here. Charts establish what's happening with price and your analyses let you know where price ought to be heading, no need for fundamentals in trading ImE/O.
your bearish position is supported by opinions and speculation... that what you see as fundamentals.
technicals are the best you have, fundamentals mean and have always meant squat in such short time frames like 3 to 6 months.
bottom line, right as we base with risk concentrating more and more on the upside, talking about bubbles, doomsday, bear mkt and crashes is idiotic imho.
.
other than a run on them nothing can break banks.
technicals are the best you have, fundamentals mean and have always meant squat in such short time frames like 3 to 6 months.
bottom line, right as we base with risk concentrating more and more on the upside, talking about bubbles, doomsday, bear mkt and crashes is idiotic imho.
.
Quote from EMRGLOBAL:
First, any serious Bear would not call a BEAR market or worry about one just based on Charts alone. That is a fools game picking the top.
The are many reasons to see the BEAR coming.
Liquidity problems that are breaking down banks.
The over flow from such a problem into Credit Card debt, refi's that are no longer and the trend of devaluation in housing wealth...(The housing market has yet to really take a dive, price wise. Plenty of down side".
Trade Deficit,
The dollar has lost more than 30% of its value since 2002 or so.
Consumer is starting to feel the pinch of higher energy prices, which are going higher.
True inflation, from eggs to Porn.
There are more signals than "Charts" to create a true BEAR.
I am more than BEARISH. However, even Bears will go long and make money.
Charts by themselfs mean nothing.
If you traded back in april 2000, you will understand what the Volatility is telling you. However, it is not telling you the exact time for a true reversal.
other than a run on them nothing can break banks.
bitchstream back at it. He thought there was "cover" when he issued his first "buy signal" 30 spx points higher. Now he will defend his latest buy the high tick calls with more recycled garbage.
Note to bitchstream: the markets are not a neverending upside parabola. If you haven't met your maker yet, assume the fetal position and he might have mercy on you.
Now go dig yourself a ditch.
Note to bitchstream: the markets are not a neverending upside parabola. If you haven't met your maker yet, assume the fetal position and he might have mercy on you.
Now go dig yourself a ditch.
thx for the kind words kommie,
yes, tick 5% off the highs definitely qualifies as a high tick...more so when it's printing a base.
now go blow yourself a donkey
yes, tick 5% off the highs definitely qualifies as a high tick...more so when it's printing a base.
now go blow yourself a donkey
Quote from der_kommissar:
bitchstream back at it. He thought there was "cover" when he issued his first "buy signal" 30 spx points higher. Now he will defend his latest buy the high tick calls with more recycled garbage.
Note to bitchstream: the markets are not a neverending upside parabola. If you haven't met your maker yet, assume the fetal position and he might have mercy on you.
Now go dig yourself a ditch.