To be a great trader you must think like a "pro dealer."

[zdreg]

Quote from zdreg:

retail pikers can distort the market for a few seconds. then some nervous big player takes the wrong course of action.

Quote from cornixforex:

Doubt they can at all if speak of real top liquidity markets.

I understand.
however, most stocks are not in the top tier

 

[cornix]

Quote from zdreg:

I understand.
however, most stocks are not in the top tier [/B]

Yea, I just talked not about stocks, but rather about the most liquid futures (FI, SIF's) and FX.

 

[HATEtheRisk]

Quote from failed_trad3r:

but you know there is no perfect system, i know a perfect system no losses for 10 years, then it started losing. Luckily the system is still in profit every year for the last 20 years, but the 100% winning ratio obviously was fake, it's only a 90% winning ratio. And how do you live on 100 ES point a year? Thats like 0.33 points a day. As you see, a perfect system doesn't exist.

I see your point, but.........

lets say you are right, just as a theory.......

then, at least there is a perfect Entry Situation and scenario, where your position is so far in Profit that you can
1) take your Trailing Stop to breakeven and be safe.
or
2) to can indentify when the odds change for Exit Signals, to close the position with a profit.

This situation exist, doesnt matter if you are right in 100% of your forecasting or not, because to be successfull - constant successfull - you only need to be 50% correct of your predictions.
Just so much, that you are right, that the momentum of the move kicks you into profits, what happens after that, is another thing.

But as long you do not lose and keep wining, then not even a few small loses, hurt you much.

Thats the big secret.

 

[R. Raskolnikov]

Size up!!

Quote from failed_trad3r:

And how do you live on 100 ES point a year?

 

[plyka]

Quote from RangeTrader:

No they don't. I have been to shady indian casino's out west and observed dealers changing the odds and making slightly incorrect moves intentionally.

Well, not sure they were doing it intentionally... But in places they were not counting their cards right. And it was especially this one guy dealer that my friends were at a table with. They were idiots and didn't know how to play. When they switched in this female dealer she played straight and took all their money within minutes...

Previously they were winning 50/50 with the guy for half an hour then starting to slowly lose money.

Sent them straight from a around 45% win rate to a 25% win rate with the dealer switch... LoL...


It doesn't matter if they were playing people intentionally or not. That is the correct strategy for manipulating peoples emotions. Allow them to win a little... Suck them in, then pull the rug.

WTF, you must have been in a really "special" casino. BlackJack dealers follow 2 simple moves:

1) Give you as many cards as you ask or until you bust
2) Take cards as long as he/she is under 17 or busts

That's all they do. There is no such thing as theory or moves for a blackjack dealer, they could be replaced with simple arithmitic machines.

 

[Swan Noir]

While my opinion of the OP has been clearly stated I do think some games are dealt today with more leeway for the dealer to move on a soft 17. I am years away from the game but I have heard that latitude does exist but that does not change his ignorance.

Quote from plyka:

WTF, you must have been in a really "special" casino. BlackJack dealers follow 2 simple moves:

1) Give you as many cards as you ask or until you bust
2) Take cards as long as he/she is under 17 or busts

That's all they do. There is no such thing as theory or moves for a blackjack dealer, they could be replaced with simple arithmitic machines.

 

[ExchangeBonds]

Quote from Swan Noir:

While my opinion of the OP has been clearly stated I do think some games are dealt today with more leeway for the dealer to move on a soft 17. I am years away from the game but I have heard that latitude does exist but that does not change his ignorance.

This is true, but the rules are still posted on the table, and the dealer does not try to out think the player. The dealer just deals the cards and follows the rules of the table. A good dealer is a fast dealer and friendly, not someone who tries to hustle the player lol.

 

[bone]

Quote from RangeTrader:

A professional high paid blackjack dealer at a casino...
No sir... A really skilled dealer will assess the skill level of the players at his/her table.

At least at Las Vegas and Atlantic City and the various riverboat casinos in the United States - your typical BlackJack Dealer probably makes a jiggle above minimum wage.

As has been so eloquently stated by other contributors who have apparently been inside of a casino and played the table games - you are giving the skill sets of the dealers far too much credit. And I am not sure that the floor manager necessarily wants his dealers "ripping off the faces of good customers". They rely upon the inherent house edge to extract a steady stream of income. The idea is to slowly bleed gamblers at a rate where they keep coming back again and again.

 

[oldtime]

perhaps, a better thread title would have been,"To be a really great trader, you need to think like a casino owner."

 

[oldtime]

he'll figure it out when he turns 21 (age, not Blackjack)