TLT--the long ride might be over

BONECRUSHER said:
Of course this is a trading site, a trading site with investment discussions as well...this thread is about the "LONG RIDE" of TLT. I trade futures (30 yr.) every day, but hold investments as well...precious metals and agricultural commodities. I'd rather own the metals than hold treasuries while in bubble mode. Commodities have at least some value after getting decimated the last few years. As debt continues skyrocketing here in the U.S., is there ever going to be a risk of default? What would happen to the dollar if that happened? If default never becomes an issue, it's because we keep going into more debt! Eventually the people are going to lose faith in this scheme...that will hurt the dollar. Sure, a rising dollar would be a risk for the world, but a few months ago I mentioned a hidden bubble no one talks about...the most one sided trade right now is the anti inflation trade...bonds, dollars, equities.
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Can you guys explain something to me? I trade on an almost 100% technical basis. So I usually don't care WHY things are happening but recent moves in commodities has me a bit curious. The continued rise in TLT and other bonds suggest people are looking for yield and worried about deflation perhaps global deflation. Since if there is a global recession it's the safest place to park money. However, I can't help but notice that EVERY commodity with the exception of corn is in a new or established uptrend and some are skyrocketing (like gold and silver). This suggests price inflation is coming and despite the fed keeping rates low people are searching for purchasing things/assets that have instrinsic value,... Like lumber, steel, aluminum, gold, silver, soy, coffee, etc. . This is counter to the deflationary scenario set by rising bond prices and dropping yields. What fundamental reason do you guys see for there being price commodity inflation in the setting of concern over global deflation and recession?

Whatever the reason I can not ignore commodities as a strong trading instrument right now along with TLT.
 
ScroogeMcDuck said:
There's plenty of yield in the world, but risk-free yield is vanishing because there is an overabundance of passive pussies parking all their money in return-free risk assets like 10 and 30 year government bonds.
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I never did like "FOLLOWERS" very much.:D It's been said that when prices get near bubble territory it's called "follow the leader", but when prices ARE in bubble territory it's called "follow the follower"!:vomit::wtf:
 
eganon69 said:
Can you guys explain something to me? I trade on an almost 100% technical basis. So I usually don't care WHY things are happening but recent moves in commodities has me a bit curious. The continued rise in TLT and other bonds suggest people are looking for yield and worried about deflation perhaps global deflation. Since if there is a global recession it's the safest place to park money. However, I can't help but notice that EVERY commodity with the exception of corn is in a new or established uptrend and some are skyrocketing (like gold and silver). This suggests price inflation is coming and despite the fed keeping rates low people are searching for purchasing things/assets that have instrinsic value,... Like lumber, steel, aluminum, gold, silver, soy, coffee, etc. . This is counter to the deflationary scenario set by rising bond prices and dropping yields. What fundamental reason do you guys see for there being price commodity inflation in the setting of concern over global deflation and recession?

Whatever the reason I can not ignore commodities as a strong trading instrument right now along with TLT.
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Part of it is a disagreement between deflationists and inflationists at the same time...this is a very confusing world economy, so many investors are preparing for either scenario. I'm sure who've heard of stagflation haven't you? I see this as a likely outcome at some point, but if we enter a depression I still want to hold things with intrinsic value and not hold PAPER! At least I know metals, energy, and food will still exist and be needed. Yes, many people are worried about deflation and want to park their money in safe haven U.S. BONDS...they believe this would be the best place during a depression, but bonds and the dollar are linked and if people don't think the U.S. could handle a depression (default risk)...they won't want to hold such a debt burdened currency or it's debt in general. Commodities are going up because of many reasons...hedge against paper assets...money printing...default risks...stagflation...value compared to other assets...etc.
 
Well this move to 1% just can't be good for US equities....in the long run.
It indicates extreme stress in our financial system....and economy.

However, what else is there to invest in except commodities ?
And I don't quite see any value there....especially with gold....WTF, we are in a DEFLATIONARY environment and gold is going up ?
 
syswizard said:
Well this move to 1% just can't be good for US equities....in the long run.
It indicates extreme stress in our financial system....and economy.

However, what else is there to invest in except commodities ?
And I don't quite see any value there....especially with gold....WTF, we are in a DEFLATIONARY environment and gold is going up ?
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Forget Gold, have you seen Silver? Actually Copper looks good here.
 
Yep...copper held the $2 level...several times.
However, I don't see where the demand is going to come from....
China is still very questionable....economically.
The only thing that could be happening is that the metals market is expecting some sort of "super stimulous" from the central banks. But with interest rates this low, what are they going to do ? Print money and drop it from helicopters ?
 
syswizard said:
Yep...copper held the $2 level...several times.
However, I don't see where the demand is going to come from....
China is still very questionable....economically.
The only thing that could be happening is that the metals market is expecting some sort of "super stimulous" from the central banks. But with interest rates this low, what are they going to do ? Print money and drop it from helicopters ?
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Who cares...just trade it. Don't over think this stuff. No one said you had to marry the metal for the next 30 years.
 
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