TLT--the long ride might be over

Well, great! I'll be there for it, with bells on. My signal is telling me to get out now, but I wouldn't be surprised if that changes again. Do you think falling rates will trigger another round of careless lending?
 
Historically, long bond price has gained in 3rd quarters ( entries on 1st Monday after July 4th ) of high risk years * . This year, the configuration suggests an entry on Monday July 11, exit on October 3rd.
* quantitative price based variable # 2 & #3 https://stockmarketmap.wordpress.co...allocation-using-low-expense-index-etfs-2015/
Last allocation July 2014 https://stockmarketmap.wordpress.com/2014/07/08/market-map-allocates-to-long-bond/




- Don't quit your day job
- Don't use leverage
- Open a Roth IRA
- Sometimes money is made by sitting in cash
- Don't be a hostage to the markets
- let the markets, profitability of the U.S. economy work for you
 
drcha said:
Well, great! I'll be there for it, with bells on. My signal is telling me to get out now, but I wouldn't be surprised if that changes again. Do you think falling rates will trigger another round of careless lending?
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Credit is already tightening. This is not about lending but the value of liquidity. If you think of liquidity as an embedded option then the value of that option is increasing in value thereby driving price higher and yields lower. If anything, lending rates will rise while treasuries yields fall. At some point deflation could potentially accelerate hard to the downside driving even risky high yields to zero.
 
If 30 year bond yields were ever allowed to return to non-bubble levels, they'd lose half their value and all the banks would go bankrupt. So Yellen will print her way out of that.
 
ScroogeMcDuck said:
If 30 year bond yields were ever allowed to return to non-bubble levels, they'd lose half their value and all the banks would go bankrupt. So Yellen will print her way out of that.
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Allowed? The Fed is not buying long duration paper right now but everyone else in the world is. You think the world would not bend over backwards to brag 30 yr govies if they got back above 3% again? Come on. There is no yield in the world right now. Buying long dated US paper not only gets you yield and liquidity but also long dollars. You guys really need to take the tin foil hat off to get some air every now and again.
 
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