Tired of lack of confidence

[Pa(b)st Prime]

Quote from Harold Balls:

So, let me get this straight. You had an experience in 1989 where you lost almost a mil TRYING TO PICK THE TOP IN A BULL MARKET and then...fast forward to 2006/2007......you are at it again TRYING TO PICK THE TOP IN A BULL MARKET. Have we learned anything in the last 15+ years?? Apparently not

[/B][/QUOTE]

Those who claim they readily learn from their mistakes are usually lying.....

My winnings in 84 and 87 were in buying a bond market that was falling out of bed. Corn was not a glamour bull when I started getting long either.

On one hand I curse my self for being anti-trend but on the other hand my winnings were produced by that same strat.

What we perceive as a lull in trend vs. potential reversal is often random. It's unknowable and without 20/20 hindsight it's often unrecognizable. The begining of the next "crash" will look identical to every other little break that was ultimately a good buy.

Trading is all about position sizing.

 

[Steve Tvardek]

Nice counter to Mr. Balls's arguement (Harry Balls LOL).

Its funny how ones behaivor at a certain times can reward us so greatly and the exact same behaivor at another time can be devastating. The market really is incredible at confusing us

Quote from Pa(b)st Prime:

Those who claim they readily learn from their mistakes are usually lying.....

My winnings in 84 and 87 were in buying a bond market that was falling out of bed. Corn was not a glamour bull when I started getting long either.

On one hand I curse my self for being anti-trend but on the other hand my winnings were produced by that same strat.

What we perceive as a lull in trend vs. potential reversal is often random. It's unknowable and without 20/20 hindsight it's often unrecognizable. The begining of the next "crash" will look identical to every other little break that was ultimately a good buy.

Trading is all about position sizing. [/B][/QUOTE]

 

[austinp]

<i>"I have been trading the YM (mini) futures along with a service (chat room) for a month and although they are great people and do okay there are too few trades--"</i>

Does "doing ok" mean they are profitable? Is the desire to be profitable, or take some minimum number of trades for other reasons? If the chat room is anything better than breakeven, that pretty much trumps losing money on a lot more turns.

Unless the true intent is entertainment = gambling with eminis as the recreational vehicle?

*

<i>"On one hand I curse my self for being anti-trend but on the other hand my winnings were produced by that same strat"</i>

Can we presume your deepest belief system is profitable trading = picking market turns?

If all of your profits were made (pleasure) by guessing at price turns and holding the trends, does that explain the numerous other years where same approach resulted in total bust (pain)?

 

[ElCubano]

Quote from Pa(b)st Prime:

LOL. In 1989 I lost almost one million in one week. Never got it back. Hence 20 years ago is as good as it ever got for me.

Those who extrapolate from past performance are fools. I know traders who're fabulously wealthy off of a single trade with everything they ever did before or since being a loser. I've also known traders who never had so much as a losing month suddendly blow through years worth of profits by stepping it up the wrong way into a mega move.

Trading profits are distributed to those who are in the right market, with the right view and the right size at the right time. Period.

I was a wild bull in a bullish bond market. Big wins. I then became a wild bear in a STILL bullish bond market. Big losses. That's the game.

I left the floor in 2000 with a home and just enough interest income to scrape by.

In 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004 and 2005 I dedicated 10k a year to trading. I lost my stake each year.

Most of my trading was based on "indicator" based strats. The results? Random. Minus of course several thousand a month in commissions.

If I hadn't caught Corn (I'm still long it)and then luckily sold Bonds at 114, I'd be out of trading capital once again. It's RANDOM LUCK that I'm having a nice run. If I only traded indices I'd be history.

I certainly don't betray myself as any "big swinging dick." Instead of lying about my size (or lack of) I give ET'ers an honest view of my trades and sizing. However the truth is my lifetime earnings as an independent trader probably dwarf yours....

[/B][/QUOTE]

my biggest winner was ELX when it was a nazzy EMLX...and it had nothing to do with indicators...I have to thank a college student for that one...the guy next to me made about 400k in 15 minutes that day in one trade one stock and one bogus press release.... :eek:

 

[gohstrader]

Quote from trendy:

This from a guy who banished himself from ET because he got his ass handed to him by trying to call tops in the ES.

Pay no attention to that man behind the curtain. TA indicators do work. The trick is finding the right time frame and indicator for the type of market you are in at the time. But, having said that, indicators are just that, indicators. Trade what you see, not what you think. If you are in a choppy sideways market, then you need to realize that and act accordingly.

Its hard to imagine the OP was using any half-way decent indicator today and made 12 losing trades, unless he was using some ultra-short time frame, and was getting chopped to death.

You're absolutely right. I got bored, frustrated with the calls someone else was making and switched to a 10 tick chart and tried to scalp. I then realized the insanity of it and quit. A year ago I wouldn't have done that and probably lost 30k.

I want to thank everyone who was sincere enough to offer advice whether pos. or neg. Your honesty and help made my day especially when I really thought most of you would have put my
_ _ _ _ in the chopper for even posting my calamity--so THANKS!

I just hope I can be in a help someday to return the favor to some poor sap who's in my position as in my opinion, giving away is the only way you can keep what you have.

 

[Pa(b)st Prime]

Quote from gohstrader:

I want to thank everyone who was sincere enough to offer advice whether pos. or neg. Your honesty and help made my day especially when I really thought most of you would have put my
_ _ _ _ in the chopper for evening posting my calamity--so THANKS!

People dig checking out wrecks on the side of the road ....

 

[CaptainObvious]

Quote from ElCubano:

my biggest winner was ELX when it was a nazzy EMLX...and it had nothing to do with indicators...I have to thank a college student for that one...the guy next to me made about 400k in 15 minutes that day in one trade one stock and one bogus press release.... :eek: [/B][/QUOTE]

Ain't no luck like dumb luck. One of mine....ECNC.OB bought @.22, Dec. of 99, sold it off all the way up to 19 1/2 on March 8, 2000. Made OMG money on that one and it was a completely bogus company putting out phoney PR's. The money was real, very real.

 

[Ezekiel]

To OP:

It sounds like your trying to force the trade. Correct me if I'm wrong, unless you have a strategy that is in and out of the market over a dozen times in 1 day.

Using indicators when the market ranges like the ER2 today will most likely tell you to enter when the move is already exhausted. (I personally dont trade fridays)

There could be other reasons too

- stops too tight
- bad trade management

or you could stop trading after x number of losers or when your account is down by x%.

 

[Spectre2007]

the markets are a pyramid of experience, as you get higher and higher on the pyramid you get more and more experienced individuals who have learned, and feed off the ones who are learning. After all predator at the top of the food chain feeds on subjectively on everything below him.

your goal is to get to the top of the pyramid and learn without losing too much. If your spending years learning then something is wrong.

when I have time, I can teach you to analyze price action. Think of price action as emotions with expectations. When those emotions and expectations are fulfilled it get reinforced. When those expectations fail to be met, the market turns around.

 

[Spectre2007]

All that money the top echelon of traders pull away from the markets comes from the masses:

Who are:

1) lazy
2) too slow to react
3) unflexible
4) egotistical
5) arrogant
6) blind
7) opinionated

The money doesnt come out of thin air. In futures its a zero sum game. When you buy someone is selling it to you. If you win, he loses and vice versa. Price is just a indicator of what the top echelon are doing. So if price gaps down 10 points, are you saying your right by stepping infront of it? or will jump on as soon as you see the gap occurring. Do you think price reverses without that top echelon covering?

The top echelon 'entrains' the masses, herd mentality in the top echelon. With everyone else trying to follow, those slow get slaughtered. The waves created by the market, are meant to slaughter everyone inbetween. The traders at the top got there by learning that you must move with the price irrespective of where its going. Because price is the most immediate indicator of what the top traders are doing.

The traders who have 10,000 lot positions need to exit out and preserve price structure as long as possible. Why do you think buying comes in late in the day? The market is being trained and is training.