Tired of lack of confidence
- Thread starter gohstrader
- Start date
So, let me get this straight. You were a newbie trader, and you grew your account 12,000% in 18 months in the early 80s? Well, shit. You must be worth at least 100MM by now. I'm surprised you take the time to slum with us peons here at ET.
Yep you're a big swinging dick Mr. 5 lot ES trader.
QUOTE]Quote from Pabst:
I'm happy to share.
I sold 5 ES at 1331.00 on September 21st. (net) I was in and out a bit that week.
I sold 5 more on 9/27 at 1347.25
Monday I sold 5 more at 1341 and covered that 5 lot at 1341.25
Yesterday I sold 5 more at 1339.00 leaving me short 15 lots.
I then bought 5 lots on buys stops at 1341.00, 1341.50 and 1342.00, leaving me flat.
I then sold 5 yesterday at 1345.50 and covered those this morning at 1348.50.
My last trade is a 5 lot sale at 1349.00, leaving me with a position of -5
Riskarb has advised me to sell some 1280 puts for NovEx against my short futures. I'm more inclined to sell Octs since I think November is the month that will see the most damage. I doubt I'll add to my futures position in this area at this time.
My saying I'm leaving ET if this call doesn't work out was less a "Waterloo" over the market than a statement about the stupidity of some members here. I get frustrated. Perhaps I should just ask Baron to ban me from the Politics and Religion thread...... 90% of ET'ers are good fella's but the anti-American's should be shot.
[/QUOTE]LOL. In 1989 I lost almost one million in one week. Never got it back. Hence 20 years ago is as good as it ever got for me.
Those who extrapolate from past performance are fools. I know traders who're fabulously wealthy off of a single trade with everything they ever did before or since being a loser. I've also known traders who never had so much as a losing month suddendly blow through years worth of profits by stepping it up the wrong way into a mega move.
Trading profits are distributed to those who are in the right market, with the right view and the right size at the right time. Period.
I was a wild bull in a bullish bond market. Big wins. I then became a wild bear in a STILL bullish bond market. Big losses. That's the game.
I left the floor in 2000 with a home and just enough interest income to scrape by.
In 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004 and 2005 I dedicated 10k a year to trading. I lost my stake each year.
Most of my trading was based on "indicator" based strats. The results? Random. Minus of course several thousand a month in commissions.
If I hadn't caught Corn (I'm still long it)and then luckily sold Bonds at 114, I'd be out of trading capital once again. It's RANDOM LUCK that I'm having a nice run. If I only traded indices I'd be history.
I certainly don't betray myself as any "big swinging dick." Instead of lying about my size (or lack of) I give ET'ers an honest view of my trades and sizing. However the truth is my lifetime earnings as an independent trader probably dwarf yours....
Those who extrapolate from past performance are fools. I know traders who're fabulously wealthy off of a single trade with everything they ever did before or since being a loser. I've also known traders who never had so much as a losing month suddendly blow through years worth of profits by stepping it up the wrong way into a mega move.
Trading profits are distributed to those who are in the right market, with the right view and the right size at the right time. Period.
I was a wild bull in a bullish bond market. Big wins. I then became a wild bear in a STILL bullish bond market. Big losses. That's the game.
I left the floor in 2000 with a home and just enough interest income to scrape by.
In 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004 and 2005 I dedicated 10k a year to trading. I lost my stake each year.
Most of my trading was based on "indicator" based strats. The results? Random. Minus of course several thousand a month in commissions.
If I hadn't caught Corn (I'm still long it)and then luckily sold Bonds at 114, I'd be out of trading capital once again. It's RANDOM LUCK that I'm having a nice run. If I only traded indices I'd be history.
I certainly don't betray myself as any "big swinging dick." Instead of lying about my size (or lack of) I give ET'ers an honest view of my trades and sizing. However the truth is my lifetime earnings as an independent trader probably dwarf yours....
[/QUOTE]Quote from trendy:
So, let me get this straight. You were a newbie trader, and you grew your account 12,000% in 18 months in the early 80s? Well, shit. You must be worth at least 100MM by now. I'm surprised you take the time to slum with us peons here at ET.
Yep you're a big swinging dick Mr. 5 lot ES trader.
QUOTE]Quote from Pabst:
I'm happy to share.
I sold 5 ES at 1331.00 on September 21st. (net) I was in and out a bit that week.
I sold 5 more on 9/27 at 1347.25
Monday I sold 5 more at 1341 and covered that 5 lot at 1341.25
Yesterday I sold 5 more at 1339.00 leaving me short 15 lots.
I then bought 5 lots on buys stops at 1341.00, 1341.50 and 1342.00, leaving me flat.
I then sold 5 yesterday at 1345.50 and covered those this morning at 1348.50.
My last trade is a 5 lot sale at 1349.00, leaving me with a position of -5
Riskarb has advised me to sell some 1280 puts for NovEx against my short futures. I'm more inclined to sell Octs since I think November is the month that will see the most damage. I doubt I'll add to my futures position in this area at this time.
My saying I'm leaving ET if this call doesn't work out was less a "Waterloo" over the market than a statement about the stupidity of some members here. I get frustrated. Perhaps I should just ask Baron to ban me from the Politics and Religion thread...... 90% of ET'ers are good fella's but the anti-American's should be shot.
I kind of figured you must have been a Chris Moneymaker back then. Right place, right time, hot hands. Thanks for enlightening us. I respect that. Also, I didn't mean to bust your balls too bad.
I don't disagree with you that indicators are not the holy grail. But I think the right indicator(s) can work over the long haul. I don't think human nature has or will change when it comes to the markets. I don't believe trading is random. When people see the market going up they reactively buy. When they see it going down they sell. I think that kind of repetitive behavior can be traded. Will trading bots change all that? I don't know. The bots are still programed by humans.
I don't disagree with you that indicators are not the holy grail. But I think the right indicator(s) can work over the long haul. I don't think human nature has or will change when it comes to the markets. I don't believe trading is random. When people see the market going up they reactively buy. When they see it going down they sell. I think that kind of repetitive behavior can be traded. Will trading bots change all that? I don't know. The bots are still programed by humans.
[/B][/QUOTE]
So like most every trader I run into here, the blame is on the indicators themselves and not the person actually trading them.
People always blame the car, the golf club, the trumpet, the racquet, the referee, etc....
Indicators just sit there and do nothing, it is the trader that either makes them work or not. All my losses are my fault, not because an indicator did not work. the indicator worked fine in that it spit out some info, the question is whether I chose the right combination to match my trading style and risk or interpreted the signals correctly or read them without ignoring other relevant facts.
Personal responsibility...
EDIT:
Also you have to explain this quote:
In 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004 and 2005 I dedicated 10k a year to trading. I lost my stake each year. Most of my trading was based on "indicator" based strats. The results? Random. Minus of course several thousand a month in commissions."
So a $10,000 account churned thousands a month in commissions? That would be an estimated $20,000 to $40,000k a year in commissions on a $10,000 account...
Also you have to explain this quote:
In 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004 and 2005 I dedicated 10k a year to trading. I lost my stake each year. Most of my trading was based on "indicator" based strats. The results? Random. Minus of course several thousand a month in commissions."
So a $10,000 account churned thousands a month in commissions? That would be an estimated $20,000 to $40,000k a year in commissions on a $10,000 account... [/B][/QUOTE]
I trade like I'm crazy Phil. Yea in 02/03/04 I'd churn out a 50 r/t's a day on a 10k account. Retail.
OUCH lol......the broker must have hated to see you go 
So, let me get this straight. You had an experience in 1989 where you lost almost a mil TRYING TO PICK THE TOP IN A BULL MARKET and then...fast forward to 2006/2007......you are at it again TRYING TO PICK THE TOP IN A BULL MARKET. Have we learned anything in the last 15+ years?? Apparently not
[/B][/QUOTE]
<i>"I'm also a guy who went into a prop deal last year trading 1 lots in NQ and now goes home with 20 lots spread over a half dozen different markets and YTD earnings of 80k.
Indicators do not work over the long run. I defy you to find even ONE trader who's found wealth via "canned" indicators"</i>
Well, my four-day week's tally was a bit more than 20k... 7k today on the short side, for what that's worth. Currently trading 10-lots ER and ES, purely intraday.
Indicators and chart tools work, if the trader learns to work them correctly. The emini game is much maligned for its leverage. We the trader choose how much (or little) leverage to use. A stock trader can move over to eminis and use the exact-same or even less leverage than before. Who says it has to be more?
The OP (and Pabst) sound like they've succombed to that dreaded "emini nintendo" affliction. Just keep clicking orders in until something works. Throwing s(tuff) against a wall to see what sticks is a one-way road to broke in this game.
There is no black & white, A-B-C recipe to success in emini trading. But it's not rocket science either, thank God. Learn to measure price action, learn to read the chosen market, learn to sue chart tools correctly.
Lots of others are doing that right now... after paying their just dues accordingly.
Indicators do not work over the long run. I defy you to find even ONE trader who's found wealth via "canned" indicators"</i>
Well, my four-day week's tally was a bit more than 20k... 7k today on the short side, for what that's worth. Currently trading 10-lots ER and ES, purely intraday.
Indicators and chart tools work, if the trader learns to work them correctly. The emini game is much maligned for its leverage. We the trader choose how much (or little) leverage to use. A stock trader can move over to eminis and use the exact-same or even less leverage than before. Who says it has to be more?
The OP (and Pabst) sound like they've succombed to that dreaded "emini nintendo" affliction. Just keep clicking orders in until something works. Throwing s(tuff) against a wall to see what sticks is a one-way road to broke in this game.
There is no black & white, A-B-C recipe to success in emini trading. But it's not rocket science either, thank God. Learn to measure price action, learn to read the chosen market, learn to sue chart tools correctly.
Lots of others are doing that right now... after paying their just dues accordingly.
You in turn make an EXCELLENT point that different indicators can be applied to different profiles. Very true. However that type of "discretion" then becomes less than systematic. Clearly my biggest problem had been choosing "sentiment" indicators i.e. RSI as an excuse to fade trending markets. An exercise in death. I've noticed though how adept Index markets are in taking out even reliable trend following MA's. When the market was more volatile a 21 period was great. Then only 34's and 55's were noise exempt. Now I find myself looking at freakin' 89's, lol.