Tipping point for the downturn regarding the US economy.

[heypa]

We didn't lose jobs to the rest of the world. Our government gave them away!!!!!!!!.
Deliberately or accidentally?
That former great(?) President Franklin Roosevelt once said " There are no accidents in politics." Probably about the only thing he said or did that I agree with.
However my or your opinion means nothing!

 

[Now is Now]

Quote from ProfitTakgFool:

It will be the implosion of either the CDS market or the Credit Card market. The Credit Card market is estimated at $1T while the CDS market is estimated at $50T. Defaults in the CC market could trigger defaults in the CDS market.

In 2009 and 2010 there are secondary waves of ARMs that are schedule to reset that are equal to the size of the Sub-prime waves but they are higher grade than the Sub-prime market. The resetting of these ARMs could trigger the CC's, which, in turn, could trigger the CDS.

I think that the resets will turn out ok in is as much that the mortgage rate should be down sufficiently to negate any major impact.

As for the CC's issue that could turn into a real quagmire as unemployment will continue to grow for some time to come.

GDP since 2000- 2006 was essentially grown by refinancing and and constant increase credit card debt...six years of fantasy that is going to take a generation to unravel.

 

[Optionpro007]

Not exactly the tipping point, but the 'signal day': Dec 28 2007, Boston real estate numbers.

 

[RussellDaytrade]

Quote from Debaser82:

Say there was one point you would like to emphasise as being the tipping point for the US economy entering it's downtrend that it is on for some time now clearly what would it be?


I would estimate the tipping point occured long ago, and was many years in the making, that centers principally on our debt and debt service, coupled with our inexorable drive to dwindle and idle our manufacturing base, along with our senseless national tendency to spend our seedcorn.

But if you had to name one singular 'event' that sent all the pieces aligning 'against us', it would be the squeeze we collectively as a global market, along with the US in particular, recieved at the hands of oil producing nations, and specifically our own president, vice-president, and their oil-crowd cronies, which extends to their cronies both here domestically and abroad.

That was indeed the proverbial 'straw that broke the camels back'.

Couple that with the delusional state of the real estate markets, and the leveraged 'house of cards' in that market, that incidentally was spread and perpetuated across asset managers both far and wide, globally and universally in all stripes of management realms, (HF, pensions, etc), and you have a danged-nears perfect storm of events that were due to unravel the markets.

And it all came a-catching-up at once, seemingly. The real question might be...how come it took so long in arriving and actually manifesting itself.

 

[murray t turtle]

Quote from IanMacQuaide:

It will be when the gubmint issues every adult citizen in the US a Treasury Check for 1 Million USD.
That'l be us tipping over the edge into the abyss.

===================
Re ''bull shooters,half the bull they shoot AINT true'''

Mac;
Since its a bear market, I actually sugested that to Congress ;
if they gave money to losers like GM.
Which penalized ALL, the auto companys that did it right.

So technicaly, while we may have a brief bull market;
plenty of '' big bull shooters '' coming in DC in JAN.

Dont know how long it takes technicals to kick in next downtrend;
probably shortly after the whole nation realizes what a difference betwen bull shooters & bull market is,LOL

And i think Timothy G,US Treasury is very wise & bullish/USA;
but no way even the best, brillant banker can turn a nation,
but may turn housing/RE, to genuine bull market , probably will.

Dont know if the next bull market in RE includes ''sand states''??

 

[Landis82]

Quote from Debaser82:

Say there was one point you would like to emphasise as being the tipping point for the US economy entering it's downtrend that it is on for some time now clearly what would it be?

"The Commodity Futures Modernization Act of 2000" which allowed for the creation of the CDS.

 

[FAST.AM]

High Oil started the chain reaction slowing growth, job loss, then the tide went out

 

[jack hershey]

Quote from Debaser82:

Say there was one point you would like to emphasise as being the tipping point for the US economy entering it's downtrend that it is on for some time now clearly what would it be?

Cheers.

End of June 2006.

 

[Mav88]

"When the people find that they can vote themselves money, that will herald the end of the republic"

-Benjamin Franklin

 

[IanMacQuaide]

Quote from murray t turtle:

===================
Re ''bull shooters,half the bull they shoot AINT true'''

Mac;
Since its a bear market, I actually sugested that to Congress ;
if they gave money to losers like GM.
Which penalized ALL, the auto companys that did it right.

So technicaly, while we may have a brief bull market;
plenty of '' big bull shooters '' coming in DC in JAN.

Dont know how long it takes technicals to kick in next downtrend;
probably shortly after the whole nation realizes what a difference betwen bull shooters & bull market is,LOL

And i think Timothy G,US Treasury is very wise & bullish/USA;
but no way even the best, brillant banker can turn a nation,
but may turn housing/RE, to genuine bull market , probably will.

Dont know if the next bull market in RE includes ''sand states''??

We've got LOTS of Sand States,actually. It could rebound a bit...hopefully not a dead cat bounce either.
The only "hitch" in our plan of giving every adult citizen 1M$ would be that all welfare, SSDI, etc, would be forever over. Never another penny, for eternity.
Ya'll got your 1M$, so now make it or break it. hehe