Tipping point for the downturn regarding the US economy.

[lemeeeplay]

Quote from TraderZones:


2) The Western World confused "free trade" with "eliminate most tariffs and controls and let Chinese factories, Indian services, and 3rd World fish farms outsource millions of jobs at 15% of the pay and without worrying about the environmental consequences and not have to buy much from us"

You nailed it!

Since 2000 we have lost 4.5 million manufacturing jobs to China

 

[Humpy]

Quote from lemeeeplay:

You nailed it!

Since 2000 we have lost 4.5 million manufacturing jobs to China

For decades the West has been " feather-bedding " themselves and this has let in the meaner and leaner from you know where.

I dont hear any customers complaining though

so maybe its time the flabby, fat arses in the West took a reality check or built a high wall around their clapped out economies to hide behind.

 

[makloda]

Quote from lemeeeplay:

You nailed it!

Since 2000 we have lost 4.5 million manufacturing jobs to China

And in 1950 you lost millions of low level farm jobs to Mexico and Brazil. Did that make Mexico and Brazil rich?

Do you wish there were still millions of highschool dropouts working on US farms for $1 an hour? Or are we better off leaving these jobs to other countries and instead focusing our human capital on products and services that have higher barriers to entry?

 

[zdreg]

Quote from makloda:

Regarding the steepness or severity of the downturn, definitely the failure of Lehman Brothers Sept 15 and the chaos that ensued through their collapse (enhanced margin accounts in London locked up, default on bonds and all OTC trades)

This - in hindsight - seems to have set off a chain reaction reaching into Iceland, Eastern Europe including Russia etc.

I think that day marks the point of going from discounting a textbook recession to discounting a (not so textbook) depression.

One can still be amazed how the media and large parts of the public focus on blaming Bernanke and Paulson for now having to bail out the entire US economy, but nobody attacks them for letting Lehman fail in the first place.

you have absolutely no proof what the effects of saving lehman would have been. you have shown absolutely no proof to the effect of the lehman demise.

it is the usual error in logic. you are confusing correlation with cause.

 

[Now is Now]

Quote from zdreg:

you have absolutely no proof what the effects of saving lehman would have been. you have shown absolutely no proof to the effect of the lehman demise.

it is the usual error in logic. you are confusing correlation with cause.

Ok...so you have opinion...lets hear it instead of simply "bagging" somebody else's considered opinion.

I also have an opinion related to Lehman and if it is similar to your own I will be the first admit it...Let's go....

...

 

[zdreg]

Quote from Now is Now:

Ok...so you have opinion...lets hear it instead of simply "bagging" somebody else's considered opinion.

I also have an opinion related to Lehman and if it is similar to your own I will be the first admit it...Let's go....

...

"lets hear it instead of simply "bagging" somebody else's considered opinion."

a professor I knew use to expound his philosophy on grading numerous times during the semester: E for effort and F for the course.

of course this was long ago when standards were upheld.

 

[Now is Now]

And your opinion is?

 

[ProfitTakgFool]

It will be the implosion of either the CDS market or the Credit Card market. The Credit Card market is estimated at $1T while the CDS market is estimated at $50T. Defaults in the CC market could trigger defaults in the CDS market.

In 2009 and 2010 there are secondary waves of ARMs that are schedule to reset that are equal to the size of the Sub-prime waves but they are higher grade than the Sub-prime market. The resetting of these ARMs could trigger the CC's, which, in turn, could trigger the CDS.

 

[makloda]

Quote from zdreg:you have absolutely no proof what the effects of saving lehman would have been. you have shown absolutely no proof to the effect of the lehman demise

No proof needed buddy, it's just an opinion.

Look up the high yield bond spreads, CDS spreads and LIBOR charts following September 15 (Lehman failure) and March 17 (Bear Stearns bailout). It tells a "story", but I agree it's not scientific proof.

 

[zdreg]

Quote from makloda:

No proof needed buddy, it's just an opinion.

Look up the high yield bond spreads, CDS spreads and LIBOR charts following September 15 (Lehman failure) and March 17 (Bear Stearns bailout). It tells a "story", but I agree it's not scientific proof.

i agree chief.