Oct 21. BUY @31.48
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Timing QQQQ
- Thread starter codedeep007
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Oct 22. BUY
Hold (+1000)
Hold (+1000)
Oct 23. BUY
Hold (+1000)
Hold (+1000)
When will see a bottom?
There has to be some kind of hope and trigger, between 2001-2003 there were a few bounces:
Apr 2001: Hope for tax rebate and low interests to work.
Oct 2001: Hope for low interests to work and successful war in Afghanistan.
Apr 2003: Hope for successful Iraq war and military spending will keep the GDP go.
Through out that period of bear market, due to low interests, the housing market was always strong, there were some good economic news. However, it might be the war that finally pulled US out of recession.
Whenever we are in a war, our military and technology always makes us feel good,... While iPhone is new and Microsoft is still the old King. What we had on top of the world was the structural financial products, which sucks money out of no where.
As long as stock market and housing price keeps going up, it works. Companies are encouraged to put on debts to buy their own shares, people keep all their savings in 401K and think they will have million dollars when they retire.
If our leading technology (structural financial products) turn out to be a bust, we are in deep trouble.
...
There has to be some kind of hope and trigger, between 2001-2003 there were a few bounces:
Apr 2001: Hope for tax rebate and low interests to work.
Oct 2001: Hope for low interests to work and successful war in Afghanistan.
Apr 2003: Hope for successful Iraq war and military spending will keep the GDP go.
Through out that period of bear market, due to low interests, the housing market was always strong, there were some good economic news. However, it might be the war that finally pulled US out of recession.
Whenever we are in a war, our military and technology always makes us feel good,... While iPhone is new and Microsoft is still the old King. What we had on top of the world was the structural financial products, which sucks money out of no where.
As long as stock market and housing price keeps going up, it works. Companies are encouraged to put on debts to buy their own shares, people keep all their savings in 401K and think they will have million dollars when they retire.
If our leading technology (structural financial products) turn out to be a bust, we are in deep trouble.
...
This is how the real bottom formed in 2002
11/01/2002
Economy revs up, but slowdown lurks
WASHINGTON - U.S. economic growth spurted ahead during the third quarter, powered by brisk consumer spending, the government said Thursday, but analysts warned slowing car sales have already sapped much of the momentum.
Gross domestic product, which measures the total value of goods and services produced within U.S. borders, advanced at a 3.1 percent annual rate in the three months from July to September, rebounding smartly from the anemic 1.3 percent pace of the second quarter.
Analysts said the Commerce Department report, while showing the economy was still growing, highlighted the uneven pace of recovery from last year's recession and left a clear path for further cuts in U.S. interest rates as a stimulus.
The Federal Reserve's policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee meets Wednesday to consider interest-rate strategy but has not sent a clear signal about its intentions. The central bank has kept rates steady so far in 2002 after cutting its federal funds rate to a four-decade low 1.75 percent in 11 stages last year.
Thursday's economic news was somewhat disappointing and gave investors reason to be cautious. The Dow Jones industrial average was down for the day, but Wall Street locked in its first winning month since spring and the Dow's second-best October on record.
The Commerce Department acknowledged much of the third-quarter growth came from brisk spending on new cars and trucks, as automakers offered a variety of incentives, including free financing, to lure buyers into showrooms.
But sales slowed in October and may be harder to revive in coming months - a key reason analysts now see fourth-quarter GDP growth braking to a rate around 1 percent to 2 percent.
Separately, a Labor Department report showed initial claims for unemployment benefits jumped by 16,000 to 410,000 in the week ended Oct. 26, pointing to a weakened job market.
And in a third report, the Labor Department said its employment cost index - measuring what employers pay in wages, salaries and benefits - rose at a 0.8 percent rate during the third quarter, slowing from 1.0 percent in the second quarter.
The GDP report showed consumer spending grew at a 4.2 percent annual rate in the third quarter, up from a 1.8 percent rate of gain in the second quarter and was the key influence on the improved quarterly GDP performance.
There were some signs in the third-quarter GDP report that suggested businesses might be starting to modestly raise investment spending - something economists say is vital to keep some economic momentum going.
Nonresidential private investment - spending on factories and equipment - edged ahead for the first time in two years. Within that category, spending on equipment and software increased for a second straight quarter during July-September, rising at its fastest pace since the second quarter of 2000.
Also, government spending rose at a 1.8 percent annual pace last quarter, after rising at a 1.4 percent annual rate in the previous three months. National defense spending increased at a 5.1 percent pace.
Increases in government spending are likely to underpin the economy in coming months as the nation combats terrorism. President Bush last week signed into law the biggest one-year increase in defense spending since fiscal year 1982.
11/01/2002
Economy revs up, but slowdown lurks
WASHINGTON - U.S. economic growth spurted ahead during the third quarter, powered by brisk consumer spending, the government said Thursday, but analysts warned slowing car sales have already sapped much of the momentum.
Gross domestic product, which measures the total value of goods and services produced within U.S. borders, advanced at a 3.1 percent annual rate in the three months from July to September, rebounding smartly from the anemic 1.3 percent pace of the second quarter.
Analysts said the Commerce Department report, while showing the economy was still growing, highlighted the uneven pace of recovery from last year's recession and left a clear path for further cuts in U.S. interest rates as a stimulus.
The Federal Reserve's policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee meets Wednesday to consider interest-rate strategy but has not sent a clear signal about its intentions. The central bank has kept rates steady so far in 2002 after cutting its federal funds rate to a four-decade low 1.75 percent in 11 stages last year.
Thursday's economic news was somewhat disappointing and gave investors reason to be cautious. The Dow Jones industrial average was down for the day, but Wall Street locked in its first winning month since spring and the Dow's second-best October on record.
The Commerce Department acknowledged much of the third-quarter growth came from brisk spending on new cars and trucks, as automakers offered a variety of incentives, including free financing, to lure buyers into showrooms.
But sales slowed in October and may be harder to revive in coming months - a key reason analysts now see fourth-quarter GDP growth braking to a rate around 1 percent to 2 percent.
Separately, a Labor Department report showed initial claims for unemployment benefits jumped by 16,000 to 410,000 in the week ended Oct. 26, pointing to a weakened job market.
And in a third report, the Labor Department said its employment cost index - measuring what employers pay in wages, salaries and benefits - rose at a 0.8 percent rate during the third quarter, slowing from 1.0 percent in the second quarter.
The GDP report showed consumer spending grew at a 4.2 percent annual rate in the third quarter, up from a 1.8 percent rate of gain in the second quarter and was the key influence on the improved quarterly GDP performance.
There were some signs in the third-quarter GDP report that suggested businesses might be starting to modestly raise investment spending - something economists say is vital to keep some economic momentum going.
Nonresidential private investment - spending on factories and equipment - edged ahead for the first time in two years. Within that category, spending on equipment and software increased for a second straight quarter during July-September, rising at its fastest pace since the second quarter of 2000.
Also, government spending rose at a 1.8 percent annual pace last quarter, after rising at a 1.4 percent annual rate in the previous three months. National defense spending increased at a 5.1 percent pace.
Increases in government spending are likely to underpin the economy in coming months as the nation combats terrorism. President Bush last week signed into law the biggest one-year increase in defense spending since fiscal year 1982.
Oct 24. SELL @29.51
New (-1000)
New (-1000)
<table><tr><td>Date </td><td></td><td>Action</td><td></td><td>Price</td><td></td><td>P/L</td><td></tr/><tr><td>FEB 19:</td><td></td><td>SELL</td><td></td><td>@44.35</td><td></td><td> Start</td></tr><tr><td>FEB 22:</td><td> </td><td> BUY</td><td></td><td>@43.46</td><td></td><td>+0.89</td></tr><tr><td>MAR 13:</td><td></td><td> SELL</td><td></td><td>@43.00 </td><td></td><td>-0.46</td></tr><tr><td>MAR 19:</td><td></td><td> BUY</td><td></td><td>@42.32 </td><td></td><td>+0.68</td></tr><tr><td>MAR 24:</td><td></td><td> SELL</td><td></td><td>@44.68 </td><td></td><td>+2.36</td></tr><tr><td>MAR 25:</td><td></td><td> BUY</td><td></td><td>@44.82 </td><td></td><td>-0.14</td></tr><tr><td>MAR 26:</td><td></td><td> SELL</td><td></td><td>@44.67 </td><td></td><td>-0.15</td></tr><tr><td>APR 8:</td><td></td><td> BUY</td><td></td><td>@45.41 </td><td></td><td>-0.74</td></tr><tr><td>APR 10:</td><td></td><td> SELL</td><td></td><td>@45.56 </td><td></td><td>+0.15</td></tr><tr><td>APR 14:</td><td></td><td>BUY</td><td></td><td>@44.08</td><td></td><td>+1.48</td></tr><tr><td>APR 16:</td><td></td><td>SELL</td><td></td><td>@45.36</td><td></td><td>+1.28</td></tr><tr><td>APR 18:</td><td></td><td>BUY</td><td></td><td>@46.7</td><td></td><td>-1.34</td></tr><tr><td>APR 21:</td><td></td><td>SELL</td><td></td><td>@47.04</td><td></td><td>+0.34</td></tr><tr><td>APR 30:</td><td></td><td>BUY</td><td></td><td>@47.2</td><td></td><td>-0.16</td></tr><tr><td>MAY 2:</td><td></td><td>CLOSE</td><td></td><td>@48.9</td><td></td><td>+1.7</td></tr><tr><td>May 5:</td><td></td><td>BUY</td><td></td><td>@48.63</td><td></td><td>0.0</td></tr><tr><td>May 8:</td><td></td><td>SELL</td><td></td><td>@48.40</td><td></td><td>-0.23</td></tr><tr><td>May 20:</td><td></td><td>BUY</td><td></td><td>@49.27</td><td></td><td>-0.87</td></tr><tr><td>May 27:</td><td></td><td>SELL</td><td></td><td>@49.07</td><td></td><td>-0.20</td></tr><tr><td>Jun 10:</td><td></td><td>BUY</td><td></td><td>@48.54</td><td></td><td>+0.53</td></tr><tr><td>Jun 11:</td><td></td><td>SELL</td><td></td><td>@47.31</td><td></td><td>-1.23</td></tr><tr><td>Jun 13:</td><td></td><td>BUY</td><td></td><td>@48.38</td><td></td><td>-1.07</td></tr><tr><td>Jun 18:</td><td></td><td>SELL</td><td></td><td>@48.01</td><td></td><td>-0.37</td></tr><tr><td>Jun 23:</td><td></td><td>BUY</td><td></td><td>@47.02</td><td></td><td>+0.99</td></tr><tr><td>Jun 27:</td><td></td><td>SELL</td><td></td><td>@45.65</td><td></td><td>-1.37</td></tr><tr><td>Jun 30:</td><td></td><td>BUY</td><td></td><td>@45.15</td><td></td><td>+0.5</td></tr><tr><td>July 8:</td><td></td><td>SELL</td><td></td><td>@45.99</td><td></td><td>+0.84</td></tr><tr><td>July 9:</td><td></td><td>BUY</td><td></td><td>@44.75</td><td></td><td>+1.24</td></tr><tr><td>July 10:</td><td></td><td>SELL</td><td></td><td>@45.27</td><td></td><td>+0.52</td></tr><tr><td>July 11:</td><td></td><td>BUY</td><td></td><td>@44.56</td><td></td><td>+0.71</td></tr><tr><td>July 16:</td><td></td><td>SELL</td><td></td><td>@45.34</td><td></td><td>+0.78</td></tr><tr><td>July 28:</td><td></td><td>BUY</td><td></td><td>@44.42</td><td></td><td>+0.92</td></tr><tr><td>Aug 5:</td><td></td><td>SELL</td><td></td><td>@45.98</td><td></td><td>+1.56</td></tr><tr><td>Aug 7:</td><td></td><td>BUY</td><td></td><td>@46.27</td><td></td><td>-0.29</td></tr><tr><td>Aug 15:</td><td></td><td>SELL</td><td></td><td>@48.16</td><td></td><td>+1.89</td></tr><tr><td>Aug 18:</td><td></td><td>BUY</td><td></td><td>@47.60</td><td></td><td>+0.56</td></tr><tr><td>Aug 20:</td><td></td><td>SELL</td><td></td><td>@47.07</td><td></td><td>-0.53</td></tr><tr><td>Aug 25:</td><td></td><td>BUY</td><td></td><td>@46.49</td><td></td><td>+0.58</td></tr><tr><td>Aug 28:</td><td></td><td>SELL</td><td></td><td>@47.11</td><td></td><td>+0.62</td></tr><tr><td>Aug 29:</td><td></td><td>BUY</td><td></td><td>@46.12</td><td></td><td>+0.99</td></tr><tr><td>Sept 4:</td><td></td><td>CLOSE</td><td></td><td>@43.66</td><td></td><td>-2.46</td></tr><tr><td>Sept 5:</td><td></td><td>BUY</td><td></td><td>@43.45</td><td></td><td>0.0</td></tr><tr><td>Sept 10:</td><td></td><td>SELL</td><td></td><td>@42.8</td><td></td><td>-0.65</td></tr><tr><td>Sept 15:</td><td></td><td>BUY</td><td></td><td>@42.08</td><td></td><td>+0.72</td></tr><tr><td>Sept 19:</td><td></td><td>SELL</td><td></td><td>@42.9</td><td></td><td>+0.82</td></tr><tr><td>Sept 23:</td><td></td><td>BUY</td><td></td><td>@40.57</td><td></td><td>+2.33</td></tr><tr><td>Sept 25:</td><td></td><td>SELL</td><td></td><td>@41.50</td><td></td><td>+0.93</td></tr><tr><td>Sept 26:</td><td></td><td>BUY</td><td></td><td>@41.07</td><td></td><td>+0.43</td></tr><tr><td>Oct 1:</td><td></td><td>SELL</td><td></td><td>@38.5</td><td></td><td>-2.57</td></tr><tr><td>Oct 2:</td><td></td><td>BUY</td><td></td><td>@36.75</td><td></td><td>+1.75</td></tr><tr><td>Oct 7:</td><td></td><td>CLOSE</td><td></td><td>@32.8</td><td></td><td>-3.99</td></tr><tr><td>Oct 8:</td><td></td><td>BUY</td><td></td><td>@32.39</td><td></td><td>0</td></tr><tr><td>Oct 9:</td><td></td><td>CLOSE</td><td></td><td>@31.52</td><td></td><td>-0.83</td></tr><tr><td>Oct 10:</td><td></td><td>BUY</td><td></td><td>@31.32</td><td></td><td>0</td></tr><tr><td>Oct 13:</td><td></td><td>CLOSE</td><td></td><td>@35.14</td><td></td><td>+3.82</td></tr><tr><td>Oct 14:</td><td></td><td>SELL</td><td></td><td>@33.61</td><td></td><td>0</td></tr><tr><td>Oct 16:</td><td></td><td>BUY</td><td></td><td>@32.26</td><td></td><td>+1.35</td></tr><tr><td>Oct 17:</td><td></td><td>SELL</td><td></td><td>@32.27</td><td></td><td>+0</td></tr><tr><td>Oct 21:</td><td></td><td>BUY</td><td></td><td>@31.48</td><td></td><td>+0</td></tr><tr><td>Oct 24:</td><td></td><td>SELL</td><td></td><td>@29.51</td><td></td><td>-1.97</td></tr></table>
<table><tr><td>Date </td><td></td><td>Action</td><td></td><td>Price</td><td></td><td>P/L</td><td></tr/><tr><td>FEB 19:</td><td></td><td>SELL</td><td></td><td>@44.35</td><td></td><td> Start</td></tr><tr><td>FEB 22:</td><td> </td><td> BUY</td><td></td><td>@43.46</td><td></td><td>+0.89</td></tr><tr><td>MAR 13:</td><td></td><td> SELL</td><td></td><td>@43.00 </td><td></td><td>-0.46</td></tr><tr><td>MAR 19:</td><td></td><td> BUY</td><td></td><td>@42.32 </td><td></td><td>+0.68</td></tr><tr><td>MAR 24:</td><td></td><td> SELL</td><td></td><td>@44.68 </td><td></td><td>+2.36</td></tr><tr><td>MAR 25:</td><td></td><td> BUY</td><td></td><td>@44.82 </td><td></td><td>-0.14</td></tr><tr><td>MAR 26:</td><td></td><td> SELL</td><td></td><td>@44.67 </td><td></td><td>-0.15</td></tr><tr><td>APR 8:</td><td></td><td> BUY</td><td></td><td>@45.41 </td><td></td><td>-0.74</td></tr><tr><td>APR 10:</td><td></td><td> SELL</td><td></td><td>@45.56 </td><td></td><td>+0.15</td></tr><tr><td>APR 14:</td><td></td><td>BUY</td><td></td><td>@44.08</td><td></td><td>+1.48</td></tr><tr><td>APR 16:</td><td></td><td>SELL</td><td></td><td>@45.36</td><td></td><td>+1.28</td></tr><tr><td>APR 18:</td><td></td><td>BUY</td><td></td><td>@46.7</td><td></td><td>-1.34</td></tr><tr><td>APR 21:</td><td></td><td>SELL</td><td></td><td>@47.04</td><td></td><td>+0.34</td></tr><tr><td>APR 30:</td><td></td><td>BUY</td><td></td><td>@47.2</td><td></td><td>-0.16</td></tr><tr><td>MAY 2:</td><td></td><td>CLOSE</td><td></td><td>@48.9</td><td></td><td>+1.7</td></tr><tr><td>May 5:</td><td></td><td>BUY</td><td></td><td>@48.63</td><td></td><td>0.0</td></tr><tr><td>May 8:</td><td></td><td>SELL</td><td></td><td>@48.40</td><td></td><td>-0.23</td></tr><tr><td>May 20:</td><td></td><td>BUY</td><td></td><td>@49.27</td><td></td><td>-0.87</td></tr><tr><td>May 27:</td><td></td><td>SELL</td><td></td><td>@49.07</td><td></td><td>-0.20</td></tr><tr><td>Jun 10:</td><td></td><td>BUY</td><td></td><td>@48.54</td><td></td><td>+0.53</td></tr><tr><td>Jun 11:</td><td></td><td>SELL</td><td></td><td>@47.31</td><td></td><td>-1.23</td></tr><tr><td>Jun 13:</td><td></td><td>BUY</td><td></td><td>@48.38</td><td></td><td>-1.07</td></tr><tr><td>Jun 18:</td><td></td><td>SELL</td><td></td><td>@48.01</td><td></td><td>-0.37</td></tr><tr><td>Jun 23:</td><td></td><td>BUY</td><td></td><td>@47.02</td><td></td><td>+0.99</td></tr><tr><td>Jun 27:</td><td></td><td>SELL</td><td></td><td>@45.65</td><td></td><td>-1.37</td></tr><tr><td>Jun 30:</td><td></td><td>BUY</td><td></td><td>@45.15</td><td></td><td>+0.5</td></tr><tr><td>July 8:</td><td></td><td>SELL</td><td></td><td>@45.99</td><td></td><td>+0.84</td></tr><tr><td>July 9:</td><td></td><td>BUY</td><td></td><td>@44.75</td><td></td><td>+1.24</td></tr><tr><td>July 10:</td><td></td><td>SELL</td><td></td><td>@45.27</td><td></td><td>+0.52</td></tr><tr><td>July 11:</td><td></td><td>BUY</td><td></td><td>@44.56</td><td></td><td>+0.71</td></tr><tr><td>July 16:</td><td></td><td>SELL</td><td></td><td>@45.34</td><td></td><td>+0.78</td></tr><tr><td>July 28:</td><td></td><td>BUY</td><td></td><td>@44.42</td><td></td><td>+0.92</td></tr><tr><td>Aug 5:</td><td></td><td>SELL</td><td></td><td>@45.98</td><td></td><td>+1.56</td></tr><tr><td>Aug 7:</td><td></td><td>BUY</td><td></td><td>@46.27</td><td></td><td>-0.29</td></tr><tr><td>Aug 15:</td><td></td><td>SELL</td><td></td><td>@48.16</td><td></td><td>+1.89</td></tr><tr><td>Aug 18:</td><td></td><td>BUY</td><td></td><td>@47.60</td><td></td><td>+0.56</td></tr><tr><td>Aug 20:</td><td></td><td>SELL</td><td></td><td>@47.07</td><td></td><td>-0.53</td></tr><tr><td>Aug 25:</td><td></td><td>BUY</td><td></td><td>@46.49</td><td></td><td>+0.58</td></tr><tr><td>Aug 28:</td><td></td><td>SELL</td><td></td><td>@47.11</td><td></td><td>+0.62</td></tr><tr><td>Aug 29:</td><td></td><td>BUY</td><td></td><td>@46.12</td><td></td><td>+0.99</td></tr><tr><td>Sept 4:</td><td></td><td>CLOSE</td><td></td><td>@43.66</td><td></td><td>-2.46</td></tr><tr><td>Sept 5:</td><td></td><td>BUY</td><td></td><td>@43.45</td><td></td><td>0.0</td></tr><tr><td>Sept 10:</td><td></td><td>SELL</td><td></td><td>@42.8</td><td></td><td>-0.65</td></tr><tr><td>Sept 15:</td><td></td><td>BUY</td><td></td><td>@42.08</td><td></td><td>+0.72</td></tr><tr><td>Sept 19:</td><td></td><td>SELL</td><td></td><td>@42.9</td><td></td><td>+0.82</td></tr><tr><td>Sept 23:</td><td></td><td>BUY</td><td></td><td>@40.57</td><td></td><td>+2.33</td></tr><tr><td>Sept 25:</td><td></td><td>SELL</td><td></td><td>@41.50</td><td></td><td>+0.93</td></tr><tr><td>Sept 26:</td><td></td><td>BUY</td><td></td><td>@41.07</td><td></td><td>+0.43</td></tr><tr><td>Oct 1:</td><td></td><td>SELL</td><td></td><td>@38.5</td><td></td><td>-2.57</td></tr><tr><td>Oct 2:</td><td></td><td>BUY</td><td></td><td>@36.75</td><td></td><td>+1.75</td></tr><tr><td>Oct 7:</td><td></td><td>CLOSE</td><td></td><td>@32.8</td><td></td><td>-3.99</td></tr><tr><td>Oct 8:</td><td></td><td>BUY</td><td></td><td>@32.39</td><td></td><td>0</td></tr><tr><td>Oct 9:</td><td></td><td>CLOSE</td><td></td><td>@31.52</td><td></td><td>-0.83</td></tr><tr><td>Oct 10:</td><td></td><td>BUY</td><td></td><td>@31.32</td><td></td><td>0</td></tr><tr><td>Oct 13:</td><td></td><td>CLOSE</td><td></td><td>@35.14</td><td></td><td>+3.82</td></tr><tr><td>Oct 14:</td><td></td><td>SELL</td><td></td><td>@33.61</td><td></td><td>0</td></tr><tr><td>Oct 16:</td><td></td><td>BUY</td><td></td><td>@32.26</td><td></td><td>+1.35</td></tr><tr><td>Oct 17:</td><td></td><td>SELL</td><td></td><td>@32.27</td><td></td><td>+0</td></tr><tr><td>Oct 21:</td><td></td><td>BUY</td><td></td><td>@31.48</td><td></td><td>+0.78</td></tr><tr><td>Oct 24:</td><td></td><td>SELL</td><td></td><td>@29.51</td><td></td><td>-1.97</td></tr></table>
Since beginning of the Journal (Feb19)
System: +29%
DOW: -32%
Nasdaq: -33%
QQQQ: -33%
SP500: -35%
Since beginning of the Journal (Feb19)
System: +29%
DOW: -32%
Nasdaq: -33%
QQQQ: -33%
SP500: -35%
Last weekend, people heard that WB had switched position from all treasures to stocks, also heard a radio stock adviser talking about stock being up 4% in just one week! If you jumped on Monday morning on QQQQ, you lost more than 10% just in 5 working days!
WB never talked about buying stocks when he has a lot of cash, he got special treatment from SEC not disclosing holdings within several months. Why did he jumped out this time? I think I know why.
WB never talked about buying stocks when he has a lot of cash, he got special treatment from SEC not disclosing holdings within several months. Why did he jumped out this time? I think I know why.
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