Timing Market Turns

murray t turtle · Feb 10, 2006

Interesting flat/cash position;
SPY ,QQQ still looks mostly flat for month ,week,/eod, actually still below 50 day moving averages.

WB;
Also interesting you applied your timing studies/model to retail stores;

when you wrote that , thought of how shoppers will stampede into a store, some stampede literaly,
like traders ,with a 50% off sale.

God bless and good trading, good timing

W. B. Busin · Feb 10, 2006

Quote from fader:

hi W.B.! - hope you are well and thanks for continuing to update the journal here - i'd be very interested if you could highlight a couple of points behind your rationale to re-enter long on Wednesday open (Feb 8) ? - it was a great entry by all means, although i am agreeing with you that the overall structure is looking a bit hectic at this time - thanks and all the best.

fader,

Unfortunately, sometimes we enter at time loci that catch the momentum low and not the price low and vice versa. This can be costly if commissions are added to small losses when stops are hit. In the current deregulated brokerage industry, round trips are a negligible expense.

Also, the structure was allowable from the high to allow a completed look ot the internal structure. So, if we have price, acceptable structure and volume patterns corroborating at a time locus, then it's time to go and enter.

Re-entry was simply a matter of still being right about the trade and sticking with our discipline which centered around using the SPX stop to exit all of the swing position.

A look at the OEX, Dow, and NYA might have kept us in the trade, but that was not our plan. The SPX pullback intraday to nearly 100% was enough to shake out even strong hands - unless you noticed the smallish gap that it covered.

Sometimes gaps matter soon and other times they don't matter at all.

I'm still trying to 'learn' this blog medium.

It can't be that hard! Lots of people displaying shallow thoughts have figured it out! I'm confident I will too.

Good Trading and God bless

W. B. Busin

W. B. Busin · Feb 10, 2006

Quote from murray t turtle:

===========
Interesting flat/cash position;
SPY ,QQQ still looks mostly flat for month ,week,/eod, actually still below 50 day moving averages.

WB;
Also interesting you applied your timing studies/model to retail stores;
when you wrote that , thought of how shoppers will stampede into a store, some stampede literaly,
like traders ,with a 50% off sale.

God bless and good trading, good timing

Thanks murray

Thanks momoney

If somebody makes anything off what I post, please return some portion to a local charity. Then maybe you might find an interest in giving some time to the same charity. It can be more rewarding than receiving any gains from the markets.

Good Trading and God bless

W. B. Busin

fader · Feb 12, 2006

hi W.B. - appreciate your feedback, following your comments and trades has yielded excellent insights - thanks for your contributions and best of luck in your trading.

cnms2 · Feb 13, 2006

This is quite a precise prediction:

... This swing upward is most likely the last chance for making new all time highs on the Dow. The time locus of February 24th/27th (both days have gained prominence) could be the turn to take all your investment monies off the table and await the April lower high to create hedges or short your index of choice. March 13th now appears to be developing as a low time locus.

Good Trading and God bless

I'm impressed with your confidence, and I'm looking forward to see what'll happen.

W. B. Busin · Feb 13, 2006

Quote from cnms2:

[/i][/list]I'm impressed with your confidence, and I'm looking forward to see what'll happen. [/B]

Confident but verify ( borrowing from R.R.)

WBB

W. B. Busin · Feb 14, 2006

I have updated the blog again.

I have successfully loaded a chart also - a small victory!

Good Trading and God bless

W. B. Busin

murray t turtle · Feb 14, 2006

1] Excuse me if this has been asked before, if true a page number would be fine answer, or whatever;
whats your accuracy rate, medium term ,long term ,
about 80 +%???? Its helpful reguardless.

2]If not to personal ;
what time did you enter your longs [2-13-o6], close to market open, or late am......????
If to personal thanks for info already given. God bless.

I looked and recieved instruction;
i looked and learned a lesson .-Solomon,trader king.

W. B. Busin · Feb 14, 2006

Quote from murray t turtle:

===========
Thanks Wb.B.

1] Excuse me if this has been asked before, if true a page number would be fine answer, or whatever;
whats your accuracy rate, medium term ,long term ,
about 80 +%???? Its helpful reguardless.

^^^^^^^
time loci are about 95% accurate - the 5% untoward ones are my fault. I do miss seeing them or regarding their rise to prominence in the data runs. When I look back at the data, I find what I missed.
^^^^^^^

2]If not to personal ;
what time did you enter your longs [2-13-o6], close to market open, or late am......????
If to personal thanks for info already given. God bless.
^^^^^^
The time posted by the title is when we entered. Our orders were in at the open. Here's how I'm trying to do the time thing at the blog:

"Market Timing - 02/13/2006
Timing Market Turns - 0915 EST

We are establishing a 100% long core investment position this morning."

That is the title portion of the 13th post. The bold is the time when I pushed the publish button after orders were in - futures were already filled, the rest awaited the open of RTH.

Read that "annoyance with time stamp post". I am attempting to do trades with the blog open and typed out so that when it 'publishes' to the blog page, it's simultaneous. Trading comes first, then the post but merely a minute or two post-trading.
^^^^^^

I looked and received instruction;
i looked and learned a lesson .-Solomon,trader king. QUOTE]

murray t turtle · Feb 16, 2006

Quote from W. B. Busin:

Quote from murray t turtle:

2]If not to personal ;
what time did you enter your longs [2-13-o6], close to market open, or late am......????
If to personal thanks for info already given. God bless.
^^^^^^
The time posted by the title is when we entered. Our orders were in at the open. Here's how I'm trying to do the time thing at the blog:

"Market Timing - 02/13/2006
Timing Market Turns - 0915 EST

We are establishing a 100% long core investment position this morning."

That is the title portion of the 13th post. The bold is the time when I pushed the publish button after orders were in - futures were already filled, the rest awaited the open of RTH.

Read that "annoyance with time stamp post". I am attempting to do trades with the blog open and typed out so that when it 'publishes' to the blog page, it's simultaneous. Trading comes first, then the post but merely a minute or two post-trading.
^^^^^^

I looked and received instruction;
i looked and learned a lesson .-Solomon,trader king. QUOTE]

More...

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Thanks, W.B.Busin;
Thats crystal clear.

Some people don't like technical analysis because some intentionally fog /confuse it it up.

You write in an understandable/timely way