Quote from bgp:
W.B. the times you are posting are those central time?
thank you,
barry
Barry, and others
I have tried to explain the general mechanics of this algorithm.
It will help answer alot of questions if you search through the earlier pages.
All times are E.S.T., New York time for convenience.
Look at a one minute bar chart for today. The one error was 2 bars off.
These are solely volume derived patterns that are driven by price.
The time locus points are turns with a bias toward the momentary structure. Structures are the alchemy of movement.
Time is the ruler to measure movement or change in price.
Why am I taking my time to do this? I like it and if it helps somebody see something new, then good on them.
Anyone can find a decade full of written material about how nobody can time the market. The operative word that is added to that denunciation is "consistently".
But they don't define "consistently" either, fully allowing them to perpetuate their mythology that markets can't be timed. Is everyday required? Is every year, month and week required? For how long, a decade?
They tried to time the markets and failed. They are geniuses, ask them. Their problem: they didn't/couldn't ask the right questions. Or, they didn't think there was beggar's chance of finding the path to an answer to the right question.
Richard Dennis and John Henry are proponents of this theory. And, as it relates to their trading, they are absolutely correct to believe that. As late as last year, Mr. Henry's variety of hedge fund billions were down around twenty percent.
What Mr. Henry's fund value look like if he was timing markets, especially his commodity funds. He's quite a bright man and he built a winner in the Boston baseball team.
For thousands of years, men and women have timed to near perfection a surfeit of things and events. How did they do it?
They watched, took notes, told the story to the next generation and onward.
Our experience and research for 40 years into the behavior of people led us to this proprietary methodology for discovery of spending propensity in the retail industry. This methodology does not work on cows or trees or weather, as far as we know. But we haven't tried to measure those as yet.
Someone asked whether it was a cyclical mode. No it is not. But cycles are strongly evident in an economy and in a human being. A study of cycles will always leave you in a state of want. A 'want' for which cycle to pick, or even more frustrating, to find a method to pick a cycle and its effects.
In its simplest form, a market can move up, down, laterally or be still. The most prominent evidence of an absence of effective market timing is the ever sprawling Outlet Malls. Are outlets for inventory surpluses filled with the "latest thing/fashion/style"? No. They are simply the dumpster of the retail manufacturing/marketing/advertising supply chain management dysfunction. How many waffle iron innovations is the normal household going to ever need or, most importantly, <b>really want to possess?</b> {fact - a person buys what they want more often and in larger quantities}
Whether the above is something you know or have never heard, it is this bold essence of what a market is. People buying what they want and then what they need in a civil environment.
Who ended up with all the money during and after the California gold rush? The merchants.
People want to trade in the markets. But they rarely are willing to do more than learn the language of trading. Worse than that, they find some bloke like me who seems like he's right more often than they are, and, then expect that person to teach them how to trade.
If you want to spend a decade or so learning, then: bring plenty of money; grow a thick skin; develop an attitude that win or lose, trading is no indication of character or value as a human being; read everything, know everything then pick what frequently seems to work; spend countless hours studying why it works. Then trade it. That is precisely when you'll discover whether your method works.
The question lays begging on the floor. Could or should you be doing something better than trading with your precious time on earth? Nearly everything else available to you is worth more o the human race than trading.
Men! Women are better traders/investors than men. Look it up. When a woman puts herself into this arena, she is a lonely figure in a world dominated by men for centuries. She will exceed barriers that men never even notice. If you have/know a woman who is better than you, take what is given to you and feel blessed. If you can't beat a woman's judgement, let her trade for you. You can spend the money.
You cannot trade without the right equipment, software and capital. You cannot trade without excellent risk management skills. You cannot trade without a plan and a system. Fall below a level of expertise and rigorous quality in any of those, count on ruin in your future. Not even perfect timing can save you.
I repeat, "Could or should you be doing something better than trading with your precious time on earth?"
Good Trading and God bless
W. B. Busin
