Timing Market Turns

Market Timing – 12/19/2005

Timing Market Turns


S&P 500 (SPX) - Time Loci - points of change of direction (bold are showing strength). All times are EST for convenience.

5 minute time segments:

1140
1145
1208
1213
1225

1330
- - 1345
- -1400
- - 1405 & 1410
1415

That is all for today.

I am viewing today's action as early portion of the upward move toward the first week of January 2006.

Closing higher today and tomorrow should give quite good confirms to your analysis.

Very limited postings from here toward the New Year.

Good Trading and God bless

Merry Christmas and Happy Hanukkah

W. B. Busin
 
Timing Market Turns - 01/01/2006

A brief note - A major time locus is due for Tuesday. It should be a low. It appears to be the end of an a-b-c-d-e structure. All volume patterns are at bearish extreme levels. Sentiment is also.

We hope to be back up and running, as you say, sometime next week. Thank goodness for old ISP's out of the area.

Reno has been rained on, flooded and filled with mud. The microcosm of the aftermath of the southeast's hurricanes experience. We hope the rains stop for a long time.

Happy New Year!


Good Trading and God bless.

W. B. Busin
 
Quote from W. B. Busin:

Timing Market Turns - 01/01/2006

A brief note - A major time locus is due for Tuesday. It should be a low. It appears to be the end of an a-b-c-d-e structure. All volume patterns are at bearish extreme levels. Sentiment is also.

We hope to be back up and running, as you say, sometime next week. Thank goodness for old ISP's out of the area.

Reno has been rained on, flooded and filled with mud. The microcosm of the aftermath of the southeast's hurricanes experience. We hope the rains stop for a long time.

Happy New Year!


Good Trading and God bless.

W. B. Busin
More...

This crazy weather! Floods then muds, now more snow than Tahoe can handle. Lots of power outages from the snow (it's beautiful, but bad timing!) scattered around for those who escaped the flood damage outages.

I'm on an old dialup PC connected to a remote server, or something at a friend's. Connecting through gotomypc to out of state isp- takes alot to stay on.

Market timing locus for today was quite good, wasn't it? This should keep moving swiftly as it entertains new highs in the Dow 30.

Spending the past couple weeks treading water from the buy locus hasn't been sparkling, but the sideways correction looks complete from just about any perspective I have now.

Will post more in a week or more when life and the weather spectacle allows us.

Good Trading and God bless.

W. B. Busin
 
Quote from W. B. Busin:


Market timing locus for today was quite good, wasn't it? This should keep moving swiftly as it entertains new highs in the Dow 30.

Spending the past couple weeks treading water from the buy locus hasn't been sparkling, but the sideways correction looks complete from just about any perspective I have now.

Will post more in a week or more when life and the weather spectacle allows us.

Good Trading and God bless.

W. B. Busin
More...


Market Timing - 01/06/2006

Still a long way to go with this upward move.

SPX 1300 should fall soon as should the Dow 30 11,000 level.

Just a short note here that we are and have stayed long.

Will update as conditions here allow - area is still 'digging out' from the weather induced mess.

I don't expect any change of bias before midweek.


Good Trading and God bless.

W. B. Busin
 
Timing Market Turns - 01/08/2006

<b>Timing Market Turns - 2006:
A Brief History of the U.S. Stock Markets Through April 2006</b>

By W. B. Busin

Monday, January 9, 2006

Most of 2006 will be a downward tilting year, as will much of 2007. Forward looking into any new year can be dicey for an investor or trader. We see several significant changes coming.

We hope this small effort at determining dates for Major Market Turns helps you to plan for these events by building expectations of potential changes in your mind. Below, we proffer our opinion of the comings Market Turns.

For those awaiting the next big crash, your patience and hopes will be tried and crushed. For those expecting a glorious race to new all time highs throughout all the broad indexes, your exhilaration will be tempered by a sharp reversal from new all time highs in the Dow Jones 30 Industrials and the New York Stock Exchange Index (already at new highs). The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index will <b>not</b> make it to a new all time high this year. The Nasdaq Composite Index and the Nasdaq 100 Index will soon end their modest upward move.

Since the lows in October 2002, the broad market indexes have rallied relentlessly for most of these 39 months. This upward move will soon end. These first months of 2006, we believe investors should be unwinding positions, taking profits and going to cash or to interest rate sensitive models. We assume most investors won’t be shorting stocks or indexes. Perhaps investors will use the various inverse mutual funds that allow for gains in this coming correction beginning soon.

Index and stock traders are sure to have an abundant year of opportunities for making huge profits from the volatile swings we foresee. Yes, volatility swings will be byword for 2006, as are most market corrections.

Let’s begin with a caveat or what some people will wonder about, “where we are coming from.” Long term, we are bullish on the U.S. markets, the indomitable U.S. economy, and the American people.

As many of our readers know, the dates and times that our proprietary algorithms yield are independent of our bias for what these dates will manifest, a low or a high. Our view that October 21st and/or October 24th would mark the low to buy did come true even though it wasn't the exact low, which occurred on October 12th. Those familiar with market structures ending like that, such as Elliott Wave Theory, will understand a bit better (though we aren’t wave theorists). We expect similar endings for indexes this spring. That is, some will make new highs and reverse from there while others will fail to make final highs. Those failures to surpass recent highs are ideal locus points for exiting bullish positions and establishing a bearish stance. Essentially, these are the safest places in time to sell short the indexes.

The dates to watch are as follows: January 23, March 13 and April 11. More swing dates are interspersed between those, but have not risen through the rigorous algorithms to show themselves as significant enough to mention yet.

Our bias, at this time, for what these dates should manifest shows the final high on April 11th as the high to sell. The January 23rd date should mark the end of a move. Our view is that it will be a high, <b>IF</b> a minor time locus date, Wednesday, January 11th, strikes a low of a fast correction beginning today, Monday, January 9th.

On the other hand, if the indexes continue their upward move into Wednesday and Thursday, then we would change our bias to the January 23rd date to arrive as a low. This date’s result further colours our bias for the March 13th date, even though we tentatively expect it to be a high.

Good Trading and God bless.

W. B. Busin
 
Quote from W. B. Busin:

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index will <b>not</b> make it to a new all time high this year.
More...

hi W.B. - thanks for your comments and i hope the practical issues caused by the weather etc are getting resolved for you - i was looking at the historical downturns - 1929-32, 1937/9-1941 and 1973/74 - at the end of each of these periods, within 3 years there were at least 2 years of 20%+ returns.. - that's looking at S&P's returns.. - we have had only one 20%+ year so far since 2002, +28.5% in 2003.. - of course times are different etc - and i understand that your expectation of course is not based on this long term historical data.. - it will be interesting to see how this year shapes up - the fourth year of the 1991-1994 range cycle was indeed quite volatile as were the 3rd/4th years of the 71-74 cycle - best of luck with your current trade and i look forward to following your journal this year.
 
Quote from fader:

hi W.B. - thanks for your comments and i hope the practical issues caused by the weather etc are getting resolved for you - i was looking at the historical downturns - 1929-32, 1937/9-1941 and 1973/74 - at the end of each of these periods, within 3 years there were at least 2 years of 20%+ returns.. - that's looking at S&P's returns.. - we have had only one 20%+ year so far since 2002, +28.5% in 2003.. - of course times are different etc - and i understand that your expectation of course is not based on this long term historical data.. - it will be interesting to see how this year shapes up - the fourth year of the 1991-1994 range cycle was indeed quite volatile as were the 3rd/4th years of the 71-74 cycle - best of luck with your current trade and i look forward to following your journal this year.
More...

Hello fader,

Things are returning to a manageable condition. We just left as it got dangerous. Fighting with nature is not winnable, eh? :)

The 1932 to 1937 upward move in the Dow 30 Index was one the best bullish moves for structure and instructive as to what might be occurring in some of the junior indexes.

The data is being run on the last several days. I am assuming that we will exit our positions in the Dow, SPX and NDX instruments. We will most likely establish smaller short swing positions in them to catch some of the correction into that January 23rd date.

I'll confirm here in the morning after the open.

We have posited a target of SPX 1285 and then 1310 and 1351 for resistance, and for taking profits. The correction could be rather shallow or a good smashing. Upon the event of a break and close above 1310 by at least 10 points, we will reverse our positions, or simply go to all cash.

We will have a few levels for the timing locus on the 23rd.

We see the SPX (and SPY) price and volume giving better timing loci lately, but the Dow and NDX show a better structural picture.

Sentiment is also at quite bullish levels. It seems prudent to leave a few crumbs in the basket now.

Good Trading and God bless

W. B. Busin
 
<b>Market Timing for Traders- </b>

We have reversed our swing positions at the open to a short position.

<b>Market Timing for Investors- </b>

We have taken profits and are in cash for the core positions in the Dow 30, S&P 500, Nasdaq 100.

The swing positions are expected to last for most of the correction into the time locus of January 23rd.

Good Trading and God bless

W. B. Busin
 
<b>Market Timing and Correction Price Levels </b>

We promised to share support levels when we called for a market turn at the time locus for Wednesday/Thursday.

This turn has gotten along quite smartly, hasn't it?

We do show another minor (but rising) locus on Wednesday or early Thursday (we will update that locus as time passes).

<b>Support for the Standard and Poor's 500 Index, as follows:
1267
1260
1230-32
1218
1188</b>

As I posted above, the SPX is yielding better signals. Watch The Dow and NDX for structural completion when the SPX reaches nearby these levels.

We favour a view that holds the 1260 level, but structure and volume patterns will shine a bit of light on this as we move into the monthly option expiration cycle.

Sentiment remains bullish, so it might be allowed that we have a hearty downward swing at hand.

Have a nice Dr. King day off!

Good Trading and God bless.

W. B. Busin
 
<b>Market Timing for Wednesday 01/18/2006</b>

<b>Traders</b> may want to take some profits today and then near the close or Thursday's open, re-establish short positions.

We remain short in our swing positions for the SPX, Dow 30 and Nasdaq 100. We will hold through any minor rally today and Thursday.

<b>Investors</b> should remain in cash. Monday, January 23rd will most likely be an excellent time locus turn for buying.

Traders- if the move upward does not start from the opening action, look for the counter trend rally to start in the above mentioned range on the SPX at 1260-1267 level. As I write this the Emini futures are down about 12 points and the Dow mini is down about 90 points.

<b>Two points to add-

The VIX is just up at weak resistance. It can and will be much higher tomorrow unless the Globex rallies significantly.

Lastly, the same scenario exists for the sentiment measures and ratios. They are still indicating persistence in the bullish camp (meaning they are rarely correct). Any rally today will only encourage them even more.</b>

Media is offering "reasons" for the downward move - Iran, Iraq, North Korea, scandal in Congress, Sharon's stroke, bombing in Pakistan - I have likely omitted some blamed event.

Repeat after me - <b>"THIS IS A CORRECTION."</b> :)

We have been in an upward mode for 3 months. It was time for a rest.

Stay short or in cash. Cash is marvelous.

Good Trading and God bless.

W. B. Busin
:D
 
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