Timing Market Turns

Market Timing – 12/07/2005

Timing Market Turns

scalp buy possible for the YM and ES

Today's action might indicate that tomorrow's 11:45 might become a low instead of a high.

We will not go to cash if that is the case. We will look under the market's bonnet later this afternoon.

Good trading and God bless

W. B. Busin
 
Market Timing – 12/08/2005

Timing Market Turns

We don't mind saying that we are ambivalent about covering our longs, even as the time locus of 11:45 has occurred.

It is the structure and price that has us scratching our ear, wondering which scenario will play out today and tomorrow.

If the indexes are finishing corrective moves since November 28th, the independent timing of the locus points to higher prices within the next 2 to 3 days.

At this time, the larger picture requires clarity if it is anything other than bullish. Since we have a little evidence of some short term "exuberance", it is understandable that we can interpret the current writhing/swinging market indexes as trying to work off a bit of that bullishness.

I will say that this ambivalence is not an unfamiliar circumstance. It is often the condition accompanying 4th wave corrections or the 1st run off of the lows in a 4th.

So, we have decided to go 100% short at this time locus at 11:45. We expect to see at least a touch of SPX 1269 today or tomorrow. If price and volume push through that level, then we will have minor confirmation that the 5th movement upward has begun.

The levels that we see as resistance (closing basis) for the next move would begin at SPX 1285 at the lower (5th failure) and SPX 1315 on the high level range.

S & P 500 futures traders are wary of getting any upward traction with the large gap that opened on December 1st (1252), and the remaining gap at 1200 on October 31st. Much of the gap at 1252 was covered yesterday.

Until the structure shows itself to be completing the correction, in the volume parameters, we are comfortable being short the major indexes.

An upward move through the SPX 1275 level (close) with time locus and volume data runs confirming would likely get us ready to reverse this short.


Good trading and God bless

Merry Christmas and Happy Hannukah

W. B. Busin
 
Market Timing – 12/09/2005

Timing Market Turns


I'm looking for a short term high at 11:05

might get a rough ride down later



Good Trading and God bless

Merry Christmas

W. B. Busin
 
Market Timing – 12/09/2005

Timing Market Turns


Time locus around 2 o'clock today. I am assuming that it will be a high.

If it is a high of this reaction from the 2:39 p.m. low yesterday, then the size of the decline and support holding will be a factor in reversing to long before the close.

If it is a low, then we'll probably stay short over this weekend.

We are still expecting a large rally to begin momentarily. We will post according to the how this reaction plays out.

Good Trading and God bless

Merry Christmas

W. B. Busin
 
Market Timing – 12/09/2005

Timing Market Turns


We are still short across the position. Ready to reverse to long whenever the price and volume signals and time locus points are conjoined.


Good Trading and God bless

Merry Christmas

W. B. Busin
 
hi W.B. - sorry to hear about your hand, i hope you will recover well and soon - what a deja vu of last year's move in the s&p, can it be more identical - the November move, then range... - the 1991-1992 were two near identical range years, but those were new all-time highs.. - can they put a whole new leg up before the New Year? logically, not likely but anything is possible of course - the bonds and the dollar are in the range, oil is looking range bound... - does the gold rally have much significance for the stocks - is the Fed meeting next week going to stir things up at all... - always exciting to see how this resolves - i am also on the short side until (a) this current top is taken out and (b) there is follow through - good luck with your trade.
 
Market Timing – 12/12/2005

Timing Market Turns


We have moved to 100% cash. We expect the next part of the upward move off the October 24th low to begin within the next 1-2 days, if it hasn't begun.

Friday's trading coupled with today's shallow retreat may yield one more downward drop into tomorrow or even Wednesday.

There are numerous time loci coming in the next 2 days, each growing in significance, but none are yet signaling strong enough to place a bet with as THE trough to rely on.

Sometimes it just is not as neat and tidy as we want. :)

So we go on with a cash position, ready for an upward power move by the indexes and futures into the New Year and beyond.

Good Trading and God bless

Merry Christmas

W. B. Busin
 
Quote from fader:

hi W.B. - sorry to hear about your hand, i hope you will recover well and soon - what a deja vu of last year's move in the s&p, can it be more identical - the November move, then range... - the 1991-1992 were two near identical range years, but those were new all-time highs.. - can they put a whole new leg up before the New Year? logically, not likely but anything is possible of course - the bonds and the dollar are in the range, oil is looking range bound... - does the gold rally have much significance for the stocks - is the Fed meeting next week going to stir things up at all... - always exciting to see how this resolves - i am also on the short side until (a) this current top is taken out and (b) there is follow through - good luck with your trade.
More...

fader,

Something devoured my previous reply to you.

Hand is better, thank you for well wishes.

I can see similarities with your point about 1991 and 1992. But I also see more interesting differences. Those years were a small recession, and set up the excellent market and industrial boom that followed. They also were part of a 4th wave correction of a higher degree than we are in now.

It is my view that we are in the throws of initiating the beginning of the 5th wave of a 5th wave that will end on the April 11th time locus, next spring. But a 5th/5th of what? Is it a 1 of 3 or just a C. I don't trade on Elliot Wave; it is a reasonable shorthand if trader doesn't rely on it as the Rosetta Stone.

Whether it is the highest price level is of no concern when one knows it is the level and time to sell.

FOMC wants us to believe in their importance to the markets. I don't succumb to that solicitation. But I don't think they care about my belief of their irrelevance. :)

Gold futures and the bullion still remain bullish in the near horizon. If US$550 (COMEX) level is breached convincingly then $575 is next level to hurdle.

Long term (years), it just may surround itself with many goldbug zombies, resulting in gold's net appreciation being one of the two or three best investments.

As soon as the range barriers are broken and we establish positions, I'll post our actions.

In the meantime, I will post the times that appear to be rising to prominence during tomorrow's morning session.


Good Trading and God bless

Merry Christmas

W. B. Busin
 
Market Timing – 12/13/2005

Timing Market Turns


S&P 500 (SPX) - Time Loci - points of change of direction (bold are showing strength). All times are EST for convenience.

<b>5 minute time segments</b>
10:15
10:35
11:35(11:37)
11:50
<b>11:55</b>
12:15
12:20(12:22)
12:30
1:10
1:25

More as they arise.


Good Trading and God bless

Merry Christmas

W. B. Busin
 
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