Timing Market Turns

Timing Market Turns for 10/24/2005

Market Timing

As promised, time loci for today, and, some early projections for Tuesday.


15 minute bars-

Monday
9:30
9:45
10:30

1:00
1:15
1:45


Tuesday
10:00
1:15




Good trading and God bless.

W. B. Busin
 
We are 100% long.

We are cautious though. The big move off the lows is likely to have started. We are impressed by several issues taking out recent swing highs, such as NYSE, DIA, and SPY. The OEX looks good as well.

We have taken positions and have trailing stops very close to price.

What we want to see now is for all the broad indexes to exceed their October 19th highs - and then continue up with haste.

We know that many stops are at or above those October 19th highs. The battle line there will be interesting. If the indexes just slice right through those levels, just the short covering and stops for mutual funds and hedgers will launch a mighty run upwards.

For our trading purposes, that line of resistance MUST be demolished quickly and with power. So one could expect a modest pullback, or range trading and probing for tomorrow morning. It might just fly over those stops and cause an even greater panic buying spree.

Repeating, caution is advised till this rally "proves itself". Take out recent swing highs with volume and, we will feel comfortable in adding to our positions.

Assuming that the rally is real and underway, it should play out over the next several months as a very easily 'read' market move. It should have 3 clear upward units with 2 corrective units in between those three units.

Good Trading and God bless.

W. B. Busin
 
<b><u>Bullish versus Bearish</b></u>

Projections for issues/sectors/indexes through Spring 2006:

<b>Very Bullish:</b>

Big cap stocks
Big cap indexes/issues (ranking)
1. Amex
2. Dow 30 and S&P's
3. Nasdaq Comp.
4. U.S. Dollar
5. Coal stocks
6. Oil and oil stocks (crude goes to over $90 bbl)
7. Gold bullion
8. Banks and Interest rates (U.S.)
9. U.S economy- continued healthy growth.
10. Housing - new construction - slower and more sustainable growth.
11. Iraq - risk declining at a faster pace than media wants us to believe.
12. Internet stocks


<b>Very Bearish: </b>

Any debt instrument (and for years into the future)
Auto & auto parts manufacturing (U.S.)
Big retailers - soft margins, getting softer.



Good trading and God bless.

W. B. Busin
 
<b>Timing Market Turns 10/27/05

Online Stock Market Research for Investments and Trading

IMVHMO** - Market Timing for Thursday, 10/27/2005 –

We are still 100% long in our core positions. We have not seen the expected explosive rally out of the depths reached last week.

The stock market indexes did rally hard for brief moments over the past few days. But not enough power and not enough distance. It is failing - - for the very short term. A day or so pullback may solve the problem.

<u>We expect the coming pullback/retest to take us back to nearly where the rally began at 10,210 for the Dow Jones 30 and back to 1173 for the Standard & Poors 500 Index.</u>

We have our reasons for expecting another pullback.</b>

The reason is a historically significant anomaly that always seems to trip up a nascent rally, and also a few investors and traders.

Languishing and largely ignored are a couple of gaps in the broad indexes. These gaps are important because they "disrupt" the continuity of price action. The most offending and glaring gaps are opening gaps.

<b><u>Define 'gaps' you say?</b></u>

An opening gap is the easiest to see. It happens when the <u>new day's opening price of an index or stock is higher or lower than the previous day's (or period's, such as 15 minute bars) closing price. </u>

It happened on Monday's and on Tuesday's opening prices for the Dow 30 and on last Thursday and Tuesday for the S&P 500. Gaps are usually 'closed' very quickly. Usually within hours or days, price will return to that area and "cover" or fill the gap in price.

The gaps mentioned above for the Dow and the S&P 500 are also seen in their respective December 2005 futures contracts. Many times gaps are ignored by price for weeks and months. But not forgotten by market savvy veterans. Gaps always get covered, eventually.

If you think this is a mundane topic or issue in the markets, just Google "opening gaps". Serious historical research has been conducted as to how the market resolves these opening and other types of gaps. Another type of gap is the breakaway gap.

We suspect that in the next day or so the market will attempt to fill those gaps in the indexes and the futures.

We have taken short term hedging put options against our long positions to mitigate the effects of the decline that might be starting in the overnight Globex futures.

This may be just another great opportunity to buy a bit more of that stock.

More this weekend.

Always be a blessing to others.

W. B. Busin

** - “IMVHMO”, will always describe directly whatever I write here in this wonderful forum. It is a slightly altered but common Internet acronym or shortcut. Here it means “In My Very Humble Market Opinion”.

Taken from W. B.'s Blog
 
Timing Market Turns 10/27/2005

We lifted our put hedges on our core position after the close. We are now 100% net long the core position.

We expect the indexes and futures to rally from this level since most of the recent gaps have been closed.

Good Trading and God bless.

W. B. Busin

edit: neglected to point to the SPX gaps at 1176 and 1173 that remain open.
 
Timing Market Turns 10/28/2005


We see no sell signals.

We project a high occuring during Monday's lunch hour.

We remain 100% long.

Good Trading and God bless.

W. B. Busin

P.S. We see a strong buy for Tyco (TYC). We project a minimum of $36 to challenge the January 2005 high. It is quite possible for it to be exceeded by a goodly amount.
 
<b><u> Timing Market Turns - October 28, 2005</b></u>

The NASDAQ 100 Index appears ready for an upward breakout.

We are seeing volume confirmations on closes that a robust low has occurred.

Investors would wait for the thin red "B" line to be closed above for at least 1 weekly bar.

NDXweekly102805trendlines.jpg


Good Trading and God bless.

W. B. Busin
 
The poll results are copied from the url mentioned in the previous post. ... sorry that it was moved.

We will fulfill our promise on Thursday by posting time loci for the S&P 500 (SPX). The times will be in 1-minute and 5-minute timeframes. Give them a +/- one bar margin for error. We do.

You are free to use, ignore and even ridicule them if you so choose. I assure you that we are harder on the produced results than anyone else can be.

We remind you that the posted time loci will be in a post until time expires on editing that post- about an hour. Then we will use the 'Reply' to add another update as the day progresses. Simply refresh the page while within that hour of the current post.

Good Trading and God bless.

W. B. Busin


__________________
Survey
For which index would you prefer to see 'time loci for intraday turns' ?


This poll is closed.

Dow 30 3 23.08%

<b>S&P 500 6 46.15%</b>

Nasdaq Composite 1 7.69%

Nasdaq 100 3 23.08%

Total: 13 votes 100%
 
Timing Market Turns – Thursday, 11/03/2005

1-minute and 5-minute time loci are for the Eastern Time Zone, New York time.

Remember to “refresh the page” to see the edited post for about an hour. Then we will enter a new post here.

This is just an exercise for educational purposes. For fun, if you prefer.

<b>1-minute</b>

9:30:30
9:35:45
9:45

9:54

10:15


11:11


<b>5-minute</b>

9:30
9:35
9:45

9:55

10:15

11:10


Good Trading and God bless.

W. B. Busin
 
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