Timing Market Turns
- Thread starter W. B. Busin
- Start date
Dear W.B.,
Thank you for your reassuring reply that you'll keep posting on your website as well as this forum. Donations make good sense to me. (To EquiTrdr, I just want to reinforce what W.B. said that I am not him, because like Gary Gee, I know W.B.'s website and forum from TimerTrac. His record is excellent, he is #1 with 15% YTD for day trading and 12% YTD for core position trading.)
W.B., I saw your reply to bgp where you listed the books that you recommended us to read. However, I am a bit surprised that you didn't include "Delta Phenomenon" (by Welles Wilder) in the list. I was so sure that you must have used to some degree natural order theory described in the book to come up with your prediction of locus points weeks or months from now. Am I wrong?
Thanks,
Chris W.
Thank you for your reassuring reply that you'll keep posting on your website as well as this forum. Donations make good sense to me. (To EquiTrdr, I just want to reinforce what W.B. said that I am not him, because like Gary Gee, I know W.B.'s website and forum from TimerTrac. His record is excellent, he is #1 with 15% YTD for day trading and 12% YTD for core position trading.)
W.B., I saw your reply to bgp where you listed the books that you recommended us to read. However, I am a bit surprised that you didn't include "Delta Phenomenon" (by Welles Wilder) in the list. I was so sure that you must have used to some degree natural order theory described in the book to come up with your prediction of locus points weeks or months from now. Am I wrong?
Thanks,
Chris W.
cwijaya,
Is that true about our systems being #1? I don't subscribe to the ratings of other developers. If so, then I give all the praise to He who guides my path.
Concerning Welles Wilder and the Delta Phenomenon - I have read about it and what followers and detractors have written about it. While I think Mr. Wilder has broken new ground many times in his career in technical analysis, I just don't know enough about Delta to make a judgement on it. I don't think $25,000 is a cost that can be justified for investigating a trading system or theory that is apparently so subjective.
I can be subjective every day and still have the money.
cwijaya, these time locus points appear throughout every trading day, in any timeframe (from 1 minute to yearly data), and on any active index, stock, commodity, and currency (my favorite market). The same algorithms work for all of the above.
If one goes back through my posts here, you will find days that I posted the 5 minute bars for market turns. It's time consuming and quite a bit of work to do it. I think if you search for "5 minute", you may save time in finding those rolling posts.
Good Trading and God bless
W. B. Busin
P.S. I just looked at the graph and saw that we at least kept pace during the blizzard then snow then river floods that hit here in December and January. We just had another one several days ago. Many people are struggling to get by. It has been an unpleasant winter in this area. We have avoided much of it.
Quote from W. B. Busin:
cwijaya,
Is that true about our systems being #1? I don't subscribe to the ratings of other developers. If so, then I give all the praise to He who guides my path.
Concerning Welles Wilder and the Delta Phenomenon - I have read about it and what followers and detractors have written about it. While I think Mr. Wilder has broken new ground many times in his career in technical analysis, I just don't know enough about Delta to make a judgement on it. I don't think $25,000 is a cost that can be justified for investigating a trading system or theory that is apparently so subjective.
I can be subjective every day and still have the money.
cwijaya, these time locus points appear throughout every trading day, in any timeframe (from 1 minute to yearly data), and on any active index, stock, commodity, and currency (my favorite market). The same algorithms work for all of the above.
If one goes back through my posts here, you will find days that I posted the 5 minute bars for market turns. It's time consuming and quite a bit of work to do it. I think if you search for "5 minute", you may save time in finding those rolling posts.
Good Trading and God bless
W. B. Busin
P.S. I just looked at the graph and saw that we at least kept pace during the blizzard then snow then river floods that hit here in December and January. We just had another one several days ago. Many people are struggling to get by. It has been an unpleasant winter in this area. We have avoided much of it.
Dear W.B. Busin,
Yes, it's true that your system is in fact taking the first two positions YTD (#1 for the daily trading, and #2 for the position trading), above hundreds of other timers being tracked by TimerTrac. Although we're only less than three months into the year, based on which the ranking was made, knowing your trading philosophy and strategy I believe you'll be staying on top of the list for long time.
Indeed the trading system based on Delta Phenomenon is quite subjective. However, I am wondering if you don't think your system is also rather subjective? My understanding is that your algorithm produces time locus points in advance, but it's still up to your judgement to determine if certain point is a high or a low, and if it's likely to be profitable to initiate a trade when you are at a certain locus point. For example, if I am not mistaken, in your previous messages you mentioned about 03/13/2006 being one of the time locus point we wanted to watch. But as it turned out, we passed that point without any action being taken (no trade). Isn't this subjective?
That being said, I personally don't care if a system I follow is objective or subjective, they are all black boxes to me anyway. As long as the signals generated are profitable, I'll keep it
Best Regards,
Chris W.
I am also using in ITM front or back month puts or calls as a stock surrogate. ATM and OTM options, as well as further expiration options, have more time value in their premium. They can be used for more aggressive directional plays, but they are implied-volatility plays too and they decay faster.
fader,
I posted that this morning to the blog but entered the wrong date. I changed it to the correct date.
The simple answer is - liquidity without as much risk on the time premium.
A high risk trade requires an exit strategy that supresses loss risks if a contrary spike occurs against your position. It's part of a larger trading plan. If the trade moves positively, I may or may not add near and out of the money options.
WBB
Quote from cwijaya:
Indeed the trading system based on Delta Phenomenon is quite subjective. However, I am wondering if you don't think your system is also rather subjective? My understanding is that your algorithm produces time locus points in advance, but it's still up to your judgement to determine if certain point is a high or a low, and if it's likely to be profitable to initiate a trade when you are at a certain locus point. For example, if I am not mistaken, in your previous messages you mentioned about 03/13/2006 being one of the time locus point we wanted to watch. But as it turned out, we passed that point without any action being taken (no trade). Isn't this subjective?
That being said, I personally don't care if a system I follow is objective or subjective, they are all black boxes to me anyway. As long as the signals generated are profitable, I'll keep it
Best Regards,
Chris W.
Dear Confused,
Time locus have a margin of error of plus or minus one period, but if it is off by that error, it usually is early for upward and downward moves when the move is sustainable.
The current time locus (3/15/2006) pointed to a high. It didn't have enough TA characteristics to get my thumbs up for a trade. So I waited to see what would the market 'say'. It spoke loudly.
Now to your objective versus subjective issue. Its answer lies in the study of the philosophy of your study of market psychology.
My view is that little has ever been done that is not subjective in some slice of the loaf. If a human being is associated with a concept or principle, it contains some certain amount of subjectivity, doesn't it?
I carefully following a strict but subjective money managemnt plan that reduces the effects of my own subjectivity when I am trading. I trade my plan thoroughly and devotedly.
I so like this topic. It is boring to someone who has not devoted time to it. It is the most important make or break issue in trading. How do you control the emotional side of your trading?
Thank you Chris for bringing it up.
WBB
Stop at SPX 1312 as trigger for the TT trade - determining stops is a personal preference for each trade and its risks - cushion and possible throwover target within the range of how much are you willing to lose.
Here's the post at the blog:
Timing Market Turns â 03/15/2006
Market Timing - posted 0927 EST
Swing trade â still in cash
Investor core â still in cash
We are going 100% short in only the Swing position sometime today with a stop at SPX 1312. This is a very ultra high risk trade. The better entry may come this Friday. We will use only S&P500 futures and in the money SPX April puts.
Iâd rather miss the bus than be hit and dragged by it in the opposite direction. Why? I can always wait for the next one, if itâs going my way.
I just donât see a buy signal. There was a minor buy on March 8th at the lows for the NYSE. Excluding that one, I just donât see this upward move being sustainable. The structure looks unusually entropic. It could collapse from this level or slightly higher. That doesnât mean crash. It means a stall and turn downward is possible. This refers to a very short term view of 3 â 5 days.
We see a good lot of unconfirmed sell signals, and at least 2 may be primed to confirm. The question is, will they and from what level? It is clear to me that this is not the beginning of the move toward the April 11th time locus. This view allows for decline that rebuilds the structural integrity as it proceeds toward the base level of SPX 1240-50. What is instructive about this upward move is that there is still a heart beating in the old bull.
I will update throughout the day without notice. [edited here at ET- executed at the open at TT] <b>We will go short the TimerTrac Swing position at the open in all 3 indexes.</b>
Good Trading and God bless
W. B. Busin