Time to start selling out of wheat

[Bingoking]

July 08 is new crop month. The wheat that is about to be planted now. Everybody and his brother will be planting wheat

 

[scriabinop23]

Quote from runningman:

So, if the nearby wheat sells off, it will make planting it a little less attractive, so the 08 prices should rise a little?

it all hinges on australian supplies, which are going to be pretty lousy.

just for perspective, on profitability of crops (from some old data i quickly googled, but I'm sure the yields are similar):


http://www.nass.usda.gov/census/census02/volume1/us/st99_1_033_033.pdf

71.4 bushels/acre for wheat
42.9 bushels/acre for soy
159 bushels/acre for corn

So at current prices:

71.4 * 9.30 = $664/acre for wheat
42.9 * 9.93 = $425/acre for soy
159 * 3.90 = $620/acre for corn


and cotton:
2.1 bales/acre. 500 lbs/bale.
1050 x .6615 = $694/acre

http://www.aragriculture.org/crops/cotton/comments/Cotton_Comments_01_07.pdf

If I were a farmer, I'd probably be planting less soy next season and gunning for the cotton and wheat.

 

[Mercor]

Quote from scriabinop23:

just for perspective, on profitability of crops (from some old data i quickly googled, but I'm sure the yields are similar):



71.4 bushels/acre for wheat
42.9 bushels/acre for soy
159 bushels/acre for corn

So at current prices:

71.4 * 9.30 = $664/acre for wheat
42.9 * 9.93 = $425/acre for soy
159 * 3.90 = $620/acre for corn


and cotton:
2.1 bales/acre. 500 lbs/bale.
1050 x .6615 = $694/acre


If I were a farmer, I'd probably be planting less soy next season and gunning for the cotton and wheat. [/B]

framers can squeeze two crops of soybeans in one year, so beans do bring in the most revenue.

Beans also are the lowest cost to grow,less fertilzer easier to harvest.

 

[scriabinop23]

Quote from Mercor:

framers can squeeze two crops of soybeans in one year, so beans do bring in the most revenue.

Beans also are the lowest cost to grow,less fertilzer easier to harvest.

thanks for the info... what about # of crops total per the others?

 

[Cutten]

Of all the times to go short, the late blowoff/momentum stage of a confirmed bull market is probably the most dangerous. You are liable to get your ass handed to you if your timing is anything less than impeccable. If you must top-pick, surely it's better to wait for a clear reversal signal e.g. vol spike/sentiment extreme, and a gap'n'crap or clear reversal day to signal that the top may be in.

I don't think we are there yet in wheat. Support was made around 825-830 and now it's at new record highs. IMO long is the side to play, next stop 1000.

 

[Bogan7]

Be very careful shorting this market at the moment as so many things are against you with $ weakness also a driver here

 

[stupididiot]

Quote from Cutten:

Of all the times to go short, the late blowoff/momentum stage of a confirmed bull market is probably the most dangerous. You are liable to get your ass handed to you if your timing is anything less than impeccable. If you must top-pick, surely it's better to wait for a clear reversal signal e.g. vol spike/sentiment extreme, and a gap'n'crap or clear reversal day to signal that the top may be in.

I don't think we are there yet in wheat. Support was made around 825-830 and now it's at new record highs. IMO long is the side to play, next stop 1000.

long WZ07 does look like easy money so far

 

[gangof4]

Quote from scriabinop23:

you can always buy ZW puts on ECBOT in the night session. the volatility is very high and the b/a spreads are wide, but its a trade with a stop not vulnerable to limit moves (and thus margin call risk).

Maybe a good way to play it is to buy vertical put spreads (ie long 860 put, short 700 put) - that way IV and time decay won't kill you so bad.

i use IB and, in looking at the various options chains on the different wheat contracts, i do not see ANY volume- ie: zero.

could you direct me to any wheat contracts that actually trade- i assume i'm missing something...

 

[scriabinop23]

Quote from gangof4:

i use IB and, in looking at the various options chains on the different wheat contracts, i do not see ANY volume- ie: zero.

could you direct me to any wheat contracts that actually trade- i assume i'm missing something...

look at the night session... you're right about volume.. see barely any volume though.

 

[Sunshine4ever]

If I understood correctly, you're short from 900. Last nite's low was 835. I hope you don't mind me asking ... Are you still in? If yes, please share with us why ... just curious.