There's really no confirmation that any of that is true. Same with MU being bought out, AMZN buying NFLX, CRM being bought out by GOOG, etc. etc. etc.
I'd have to say Buffet is smarter than that and would wait for a real bottoming sign.
Good luck.
Time to start accumulating homebuilder stocks
- Thread starter wave
- Start date
There's really no confirmation that any of that is true. Same with MU being bought out, AMZN buying NFLX, CRM being bought out by GOOG, etc. etc. etc.
I'd have to say Buffet is smarter than that and would wait for a real bottoming sign.
Good luck.
Before jumping the gun on home building stocks, consider
these two points:
1: Housing is a 5 to 10 year cycle.
I have bought and sold houses through everyone of them since 1976.
Here is the housing cycles that I have experienced in California:
Up Cycle.......1976-1980.
Flat Period....1981-1985.
Up Cycle.......1986-1990.
Flat Period....1991-1999.
Up Cycle.......2000-2005.
Flat Period?..2006-2010?
Interesting note:
The Flat Periods of time were approximately 5 years, with the exception of 1991 to 1999. This unusually long flat period actually had housing price declines of -25% to -40% at the midpoint (1995) in CA.
This was probably caused by more than a doubling of home prices in the prior up cycle and an extended bull market for Wall Street.
2: Historically when the stock market is bullish, the housing market is flat.
When the Housing market is booming, the stock market is bearish or flat.
The best example above is the 1991 to 1999 flat housing period. This was the longest continual bull market in history.
A likely scenerio for the present time is a continually flat or declining housing market until 2010.
By 2010, the current stock market would then have a 7 year bull run and need a rest, which would cause investors to start speculating in real estate again.
these two points:
1: Housing is a 5 to 10 year cycle.
I have bought and sold houses through everyone of them since 1976.
Here is the housing cycles that I have experienced in California:
Up Cycle.......1976-1980.
Flat Period....1981-1985.
Up Cycle.......1986-1990.
Flat Period....1991-1999.
Up Cycle.......2000-2005.
Flat Period?..2006-2010?
Interesting note:
The Flat Periods of time were approximately 5 years, with the exception of 1991 to 1999. This unusually long flat period actually had housing price declines of -25% to -40% at the midpoint (1995) in CA.
This was probably caused by more than a doubling of home prices in the prior up cycle and an extended bull market for Wall Street.
2: Historically when the stock market is bullish, the housing market is flat.
When the Housing market is booming, the stock market is bearish or flat.
The best example above is the 1991 to 1999 flat housing period. This was the longest continual bull market in history.
A likely scenerio for the present time is a continually flat or declining housing market until 2010.
By 2010, the current stock market would then have a 7 year bull run and need a rest, which would cause investors to start speculating in real estate again.
What are you up 20% on?
How? Not a single one of them is up 20%.
You mean combined and not averaged?
Learning how markets behave will make you money. Trying to justify your ivy league degrees and cfa status with over analysis won't. The junk technical indicators won't make you money either. You are not smarter than the markets. Learn how to recognize the fear and greed patterns in the markets.
This coming from a guy who combines his individual gains rather than averaging them over his whole portfolio? Wow...you're out there.
Where did the ivy league and cfa bullshit come from?
And I'm sorry asking questions rather than jumping into terrible industries is "overthinking" things.