Time to short Oil

AMT4SWA · Jul 16, 2008

Quote from AMT4SWA:

Covered all my $147.25 short entries at $137.25 for +$10.00 per contract.....holding all $147.75 shorts for a current month CL $132 level bust. When I see The CL break $132 I will decide how to scale out the remainder in the days/weeks ahead.....so far so good with todays awesome pullback.

Today we had our first solid bounce right off the $132 level for the current month CL contract....dollar firming up, so hopefully we will get another test of $132 tomorrow that may take us into a lower trading range for oil......that would be nice.

JSSPMK · Jul 16, 2008

Quote from AMT4SWA:

Today we had our first solid bounce right off the $132 level for the current month CL contract....dollar firming up, so hopefully we will get another test of $132 tomorrow that may take us into a lower trading range for oil......that would be nice.

Lower than $132? Did they discover more oil? Are we running out of oil or not?

daddyeaux · Jul 16, 2008

if a piker wants to short oil then the piker needs to short gold

please post your margin call....

AMT4SWA · Jul 23, 2008

Quote from JSSPMK:

Lower than $132? Did they discover more oil? Are we running out of oil or not?

$132's should now be first resistance with $114 level as next major support.....holding my remaining Sept QM $147.75 short entries for the next support level test.

topeak · Jul 24, 2008

Is a sub $100 level possible?

AMT4SWA · Jul 24, 2008

Yes.....$98/$99 is the major level below the other support level I previously stated. If this price level breaks it could be another $15 to $20 dollar drop potential.

AMT4SWA · Jul 29, 2008

If the QM trades to $117.75 I will start a scale out zone down to the $112.75 level for my next group of short positions to be covered. The last 33% of my Sept QM $147.75 short entries I will hold for levels in the $100.75 to $98.75 levels.

I think the probability of a pop below the $117.75 level this week is looking at least 50/50 at this point.....breaking down through these levels is significant in the long term trend imo.

dstod · Jul 29, 2008

Quote from AMT4SWA:

If the QM trades to $117.75 I will start a scale out zone down to the $112.75 level for my next group of short positions to be covered. The last 33% of my Sept QM $147.75 short entries I will hold for levels in the $100.75 to $98.75 levels.

I think the probability of a pop below the $117.75 level this week is looking at least 50/50 at this point.....breaking down through these levels is significant in the long term trend imo.

Wow, phenomenal discipline!

I admire your ability to plan your trade and to trade your plan. Have you always been able to trade this way or did it take some time?

AMT4SWA · Aug 1, 2008

I just take my time in trades like this these days, I am patiently waiting to see how the CL will react to any additional test of the $120 area....no rush. I will say that it did take several years to gravitate to a longer term objective for most of my trading these days........hyper scalping gets old.....LOL (unless it is automated)!

I used the rally to roll over to the Oct QM contract and help my overall cost basis a bit (about $.60 improvement as I added new Oct contracts at higher pricing versus the covers of my Sept contracts). I am set now to just wait it out and look for any possible lower prices ahead to take additional profits. My newly adjusted scale out zone for the Oct QM will be $118.50 down to the $113.50 level

Cheese · Aug 1, 2008

End of the week is a good time to review what has been happening to the oil price (CL). My usual reminder is that you need to use an accurate methodology to harness the rich rewards this market offers daily.

Some strong short covering featured in the premarket (8.30/10) and earlier in the official session today. The range for today (Friday August 1 2008) was 447. Big gyrations were there for you to ride.

As always best play is intraday, utilizing CL from open to close. Just play the gyrations buying the upmoves and selling the downmoves sequentially. The sequence today (August 1) in the session's gyrations (up/down repeating 10.00 to 14.30) produced 13 macro 'legs' of minimum 45 points (ie cents). The mean average of those 13 'legs' was 150 points per 'leg'. Therefore between 10am and 2.30pm, thats some 1900 points which were on offer.

If you have a plan to get rich, take generously from the CL offering each day.