Time to short crude
- Thread starter usman88
- Start date
yes we can see the $100, in fact we have a backwardation again and with a very strong range (a 60 cents move in 2 days) (im talking about the spread CLG8-CLH8).
BTW: the market moved big time today (we are only $6 dollars away from the 100 mark) I hope you didn't lose money on that rally, best regards.
BTW: Bets that February crude oil will fall below $85 a barrel were the most actively traded options contracts on the Nymex today. The put contracts fell 25 cents to 39 cents. And 308,000 contracts were traded yesterday, less than half the number from a week earlier. Declining volume sometimes magnifies changes in commodity prices. But we are in christmas season.
I am still short at 9149
the news regarding consumer spending which initiated the rally were basically number magic. The reason behind the increase was Thanksgiving and increased energy prices. People will realize that in the coming week. Moreover Thursdays EIAs inventory report will show an increase
and weve been more closer to $100 in the previous week too
IMO u guys will see a retracement to 50% on monday in the first hour
neways its been a good lesson for me. to take the loss and reverse my position. If i had, i wudve been in profit and hadnt had to wait
the news regarding consumer spending which initiated the rally were basically number magic. The reason behind the increase was Thanksgiving and increased energy prices. People will realize that in the coming week. Moreover Thursdays EIAs inventory report will show an increase
and weve been more closer to $100 in the previous week too
IMO u guys will see a retracement to 50% on monday in the first hour
neways its been a good lesson for me. to take the loss and reverse my position. If i had, i wudve been in profit and hadnt had to wait
usman, merry Christmas pal!.
look, watch the dollar!
The backwardation still in a "mid" positive mood, be careful pal! and the USD is down almost 100 pips. I really hope you success, But watch the usd dollar, Maybe that will help us to know ( from a speculative point of view) Where We're Headed (outright).. If the spread goes over .50 i'll go long on that spread.
Im in the + side of the trade since my first post in this thread (long).. but will close my trades as soon i can.
Hope you the best pal, Merry christmas again!
look, watch the dollar!
The backwardation still in a "mid" positive mood, be careful pal! and the USD is down almost 100 pips. I really hope you success, But watch the usd dollar, Maybe that will help us to know ( from a speculative point of view) Where We're Headed (outright).. If the spread goes over .50 i'll go long on that spread.
Im in the + side of the trade since my first post in this thread (long).. but will close my trades as soon i can.
Hope you the best pal, Merry christmas again!
Why on earth would you have been looking to go short Oil on the 20th? You must have some serious shorting bias to see it like that? Around the same time I was going long and was even going to post a thread like yours but from the opposite viewpoint!
Looking at some other commodities/forex around the 20th of Dec. remember that Gold and oil have a general connection, along with other metals, adn conversely USDollar can weaken against other currencies when Oil goes up.
So when i trade oil, look at all these other charts and find out what the 'general consesus' is.
Gold was consolidating (weekly flag pattern) and tightening into a squeezed triangle pattern.
Euro/USD was at major support,
Silver had a short term head and shoulders reversal.
Oil itself had a rounded bottom and head and shoudlers reversal up until the 13th Dec, then it broke it out, and by the 18th had dropped back to retest the previous highs. And by the 20th it had shown much respect for the previous days price action by hovering above the major support line.
All the T.A. signals were a perfect buy for oil.
Not to mention the tension in the middle east, the long term bullish chart of oil, the restriction of sales (OPEC right?), the fundamental shift in supply vs demand. No way in a million years is this a short for me. Oil just hit $97+ ... testing the highs from late november. Question is how high will it go in the short term? Will it form consolidation pattern and break out to new record highs?
Agree with you Shagi... I follow a dude at Tradeforgain.com and he usually on the money (I'm not associated with them)
http://www.tradeforgain.com/market-...buy-signals-on-crude-oil-and-canadian-dollar/