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time to sell
- Thread starter tonyzhou
- Start date
What I said, and what I am saying, and what you have confirmed, is that you haven't made a cent. I'm not even saying that your approach is untradeable, if you have deep pockets. I'm just saying that you revealed yourself as a bullshitter when you claimed that you had "made a ton of money".Quote from richrf:
Are you saying that you are positive that I am not positive as of today based upon my trades since Oct. 10th? And if I am not, I am a bullshitter? Because, I am willing to bet on it, if you are willing to back up your words.
If you had managed to buy the exact bottom of the 5 major down moves since Oct. 10th, you might be close to break even. Anyone who uses the word 'kewl' in a sentence is not capable of this, and is unlikely to have any money to trade with in the first place.
Re: your ridiculous statement that paper profits are the same as realized profits, I'm not going to comment on that any further. It confirms what I suspected.
Re: your views on the unions, they speak for themselves.
Quote from traderNik:
What I said, and what I am saying, and what you have confirmed, is that you haven't made a cent. I'm not even saying that your approach is untradeable, if you have deep pockets. I'm just saying that you revealed yourself as a bullshitter when you claimed that you had "made a ton of money".
If you had managed to buy the exact bottom of the 5 major down moves since Oct. 10th, you might be close to break even. Anyone who uses the word 'kewl' in a sentence is not capable of this, and is unlikely to have any money to trade with in the first place.
Re: your ridiculous statement that paper profits are the same as realized profits, I'm not going to comment on that any further. It confirms what I suspected.
Re: your views on the unions, they speak for themselves.
O.K.
For what its worth I'll pull a stock trader and say I'm near 100% long (although I wish I had more cash) and assetted up for the long term (3-7 years) betting on reflationary monetary policy. All equity portfolio, a tad of TBT, some ABX, some FXI, RSX, and EWT (yes China, Russia, and Taiwan). And yes, even some dreaded SPY IWM and XLF (god forbid). I'm not in love with those, but hey what does it matter... About 40% of the portfolio bought at below these levels to 10% higher.
As for a breakout... not sure about that anytime soon, but when the bear is over, I think most are underestimating the upside potential. The common wisdom that we will come out an unlevered society excludes one point: how much total money supply will there be versus before? As usual, it is obvious most everyone will be surprised no matter the outcome 5 years out. (down or up) Things never happen as we expect.
We'll see how that goes. Again, the smarter side of me knows I would be wiser having a little more cash.
As for a breakout... not sure about that anytime soon, but when the bear is over, I think most are underestimating the upside potential. The common wisdom that we will come out an unlevered society excludes one point: how much total money supply will there be versus before? As usual, it is obvious most everyone will be surprised no matter the outcome 5 years out. (down or up) Things never happen as we expect.
We'll see how that goes. Again, the smarter side of me knows I would be wiser having a little more cash.
Quote from scriabinop23:
For what its worth I'll pull a stock trader and say I'm near 100% long (although I wish I had more cash) and assetted up for the long term (3-7 years) betting on reflationary monetary policy. All equity portfolio, a tad of TBT, some ABX, some FXI, RSX, and EWT (yes China, Russia, and Taiwan). And yes, even some dreaded SPY IWM and XLF (god forbid). I'm not in love with those, but hey what does it matter... About 40% of the portfolio bought at below these levels to 10% higher.
As for a breakout... not sure about that anytime soon, but when the bear is over, I think most are underestimating the upside potential. The common wisdom that we will come out an unlevered society excludes one point: how much total money supply will there be versus before? As usual, it is obvious most everyone will be surprised no matter the outcome 5 years out. (down or up) Things never happen as we expect.
We'll see how that goes. Again, the smarter side of me knows I would be wiser having a little more cash.
That's the whole point. No one knows. My hypothesis is that massive government spending (which is almost assured) of hundreds of billions of dollars, very loose Federal monetary policy, together with oil savings (estimated at $300 billion/year compared to the highs of this year), plus all of the panic money that is on the side right now which will find its way back into the market slowly but surely (e.g. hedge fund redemptions), will bring about at least a substantial retracement to the market highs from the lows, whereever it may end up being. Since I am leveraged and have plenty of reserves, and have plenty of patience and time, I am just going to keep on picking off the lows (I bought today right off the opening bottoms), and collect my profits on the next Bull cycle, which will probably start next year in anticipation of government fiscal and monetary policies. I expect my return to be totally excellent.
You're one of the guys around here I like to read. I have to say that I'm in about 90% cash here. As a chart reader, I look at the $INDU and I just don't quite see an end to the selling yet, and I don't think it's 'kewl' (to quote stocktrad3r II) to average down multiple times in a falling market. That said, at least you're realistic, because you know that you'll never call the exact bottom (unlike some others around here, who claim that they trade perfectly on every dip when they're really saving up for the new Call of Duty).Quote from scriabinop23:
For what its worth I'll pull a stock trader and say I'm near 100% long (although I wish I had more cash) and assetted up for the long term (3-7 years) betting on reflationary monetary policy.
An announcement that TARP money will be used to help the Union-Hamstrung 3 will be good for a good pop, that's for sure.
Quote from richrf:
Are you saying that you are positive that I am not positive as of today based upon my trades since Oct. 10th? And if I am not, I am a bullshitter? Because, I am willing to bet on it, if you are willing to back up your words.
Nik can you do me a favor and stop inquiring into richf. I want to see if his house of cards he's been 'building' will crash in front of his eyes or he makes good on it.
The more ideas you give him, he may actually think twice about his strategy and he may actually stop it. I want him to follow through with it to see where it goes.
I've been reading his posts closely - I love them - he's very bullish and very optimistic. He's not as dumb as Stock3...i'm almost certain it's another guy. He sounds very prim and proper when he posts. And I have nothing against the guy. In fact I kind of want him to succeed with this 'trade' he likes talk about. Another part of me wants to see his house of cards crash down....just to make me laugh for 10 seconds.
But the thing is Rich - I doubt you'll ever admit to any of us if it doesn't work out. Please keep us posted.
You got it, this was a holdover from another thread where he was bragging about how much he's up as a bull in these markets - a sure sign of a dreamer. His take on unions is anathema to me as well.Quote from Bear Plunger:
Nik can you do me a favor and stop inquiring into richf.
But the thing is Rich - I doubt you'll ever admit to any of us if it doesn't work out.
I will gladly accede to your request. And you're right. There is no one as absurd as stocktrad3r.
Quote from Bear Plunger:
Nik can you do me a favor and stop inquiring into richf. I want to see if his house of cards he's been 'building' will crash in front of his eyes or he makes good on it.
The more ideas you give him, he may actually think twice about his strategy and he may actually stop it. I want him to follow through with it to see where it goes.
I've been reading his posts closely - I love them - he's very bullish and very optimistic. He's not as dumb as Stock3...i'm almost certain it's another guy. He sounds very prim and proper when he posts. And I have nothing against the guy. In fact I kind of want him to succeed with this 'trade' he likes talk about. Another part of me wants to see his house of cards crash down....just to make me laugh for 10 seconds.
But the thing is Rich - I doubt you'll ever admit to any of us if it doesn't work out. Please keep us posted.
I will definitely keep you up to date. I have no ego interest here. I have made enough money in my life. Actually, the only reason I got involved with the market again, was to help out my ex.
You can be assured, that I am at this point positive, and I am buying on all dips that lower my breakeven point. Should the Nov. 21 low not hold, I will continue to buy, based upon price/volume analysis. If I don't see the support, I do not buy. If I see the Elephants coming in, I buy alongside of them.
Should we break to the upside, I may either expedite my buying, to run alongside the herd, or I may continue to buy only on dips - again, this depends upon price/volume action. I have no pre-conceived trading or profit targets. I just watch the market, and make decisions based upon the current action, and my long-term hypothesis (call it the long cycle). I don't try to play the smaller cycles, because I think I can do just as well playing the longer one, without the stress and time requirements.
But, I will keep you posted. And as things develop next year, I will let you know when I decide to get out, and what are my profits or losses at the time, as a percentage of my investment (investment being the weighted average over time).
Quote from tonyzhou:
no good news step in until market go down to 650
For the last 3 weeks the market has rallied off every huge bearish news event.
Thats kind of a bullish thing.Not saying that the market shouldnt tank but it doesnt want to now.Seller fatigue maybe.
I havent traded much in the last few weeks since the market started trading higher off bad news and still short the rallies but the markets strength is impressive and is signal of something pointing upwards rather than downwards.
Imagine if some good news comes out how the market will explode up...