Time to lock in 4.7% returns on your savings for 10 years?

[Daal]

Bill Ackman is on the opposing side of that trade. You decide whether that is positive or negative for your thesis.

I watched his interviews, he is short the 30y, he is not that bearish on that 10y

 

[murray t turtle]

1 month treasuries are paying 5.5% why people are accepting less elsewhere boggles my mind.

If you really think interest rates are going to go down, then you want money free to buy stocks anyways.

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EVEn if one does not think rate$ are going down/
want plenty of money to buy ETFs , maybe, maybe not this week but 4th quarter most likely.
Most likely not not low PE stuff like DOW\DIA\ tends to go low \lower.........

 

[M.W.]

Too early imo. Rates will creep higher, causing 10yrs to sell off even further. Inflation is not tamed by a long shot.

I started to scale in a portion of my cash reserves (that were getting 5% at IB) into 10y Treasury notes. My thinking is that:
-A recession in the next 2 years is like a 30-40% chance
-Rick Santelli was on CNBC talking about how rates might go to 13%, which gives me contrarian indicator vibes
-If the new normal of inflation is 3%, 4.65% is a pretty good yield to get on savings. And I get to lock that in for 10 years
-Headlines about how high rates were are all over the place, even Cramer is live tweeting the "capital destruction in bonds"
-5% is nice, but guaranteed 4.65% for 10 years is better
-The Fed is probably done hiking

I put a 1/3 position and plan to scale in if bond prices continue to fall, this is not a "macro bet" as much as is a "savings" bet, I want to protect myself from future cuts and/or ZIRP
I would love to hear the opinion of other macro/economic thinkers out there

 

[Daal]

Fidelity has 10 year CDs at 5.55%.
.9% more over 10 years adds up.

View attachment 324354

What does the T&C say? What if they decide to close your account for whatever reason? Feels like there could be tricks in the contract

 

[murray t turtle]

Fidelity has 10 year CDs at 5.55%.
.9% more over 10 years adds up.

View attachment 324354

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[ 9mo ]looks even better if one want to lock it up for 9 mo, not me.
10 year$ even more so no thanks.
Even a cash SPY benchmark does much better [2x or more] than that average.
Not sure i would call most bonds ''capital destruction'' LOL , but destruction\opportunity cost for sure.
Looks like Fidelity has good line of private sector CDs/better than gov,,LOL expected

 

[Cuddles]

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/10/03/business/economy/jolts-job-openings-layoffs.html

 

[Overnight]

Fidelity has 10 year CDs at 5.55%.
.9% more over 10 years adds up.

View attachment 324354

Are the tax implications the same for CDs and US paper?

 

[murray t turtle]

Are the tax implications the same for CDs and US paper?

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In a Roth, they are.

 

[TrailerParkTed]

Are the tax implications the same for CDs and US paper?

I thought Bills have certain State benefits.

 

[BKR88]

Are the tax implications the same for CDs and US paper?

Treasuries are exempt from state income taxes but CDs are not.
No state income taxes here in FL so depends upon your state tax.