Time to lock in 4.7% returns on your savings for 10 years?

D

Daal

I started to scale in a portion of my cash reserves (that were getting 5% at IB) into 10y Treasury notes. My thinking is that:
-A recession in the next 2 years is like a 30-40% chance
-Rick Santelli was on CNBC talking about how rates might go to 13%, which gives me contrarian indicator vibes
-If the new normal of inflation is 3%, 4.65% is a pretty good yield to get on savings. And I get to lock that in for 10 years
-Headlines about how high rates were are all over the place, even Cramer is live tweeting the "capital destruction in bonds"
-5% is nice, but guaranteed 4.65% for 10 years is better
-The Fed is probably done hiking

I put a 1/3 position and plan to scale in if bond prices continue to fall, this is not a "macro bet" as much as is a "savings" bet, I want to protect myself from future cuts and/or ZIRP
I would love to hear the opinion of other macro/economic thinkers out there
 
Banks don't offer a "locked-in" rate for that long unless they think that rates are going higher. They want to lock in a "low-cost source of funds" which they can lend to others at a higher rate.

Lots are claiming, "THIS is the top in rates". They don't know, they're just guessing.

Odds are that if you're patient you might get a higher rate sometime later.
 
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Scataphagos said:
Banks don't offer a "locked-in" rate for that long unless they think that rates are going higher. They want to lock in a "low-cost source of funds" which they can lend to others at a higher rate.

Lots are claiming, "THIS is the top in rates". They don't know, they're just guessing.

Odds are that if you're patient you might get a higher rate sometime later.
More...
Im locking rates in using US Treasury bonds with 2033 maturies. I guess I wasnt clear enough
 
Daal said:
-5% is nice, but guaranteed 4.65% for 10 years is better
More...

Fidelity has 10 year CDs at 5.55%.
.9% more over 10 years adds up.

Fidelity..CDs.png
 
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Yes;
some money market/ not as much as SEPT/;
OCT tends to be much better for stock/ETF traders. Sold [edit]some hi grade copper into uptrend..............................................................................
 
1 month treasuries are paying 5.5% why people are accepting less elsewhere boggles my mind.

If you really think interest rates are going to go down, then you want money free to buy stocks anyways.
 
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