time to go short! today was the sign..

bluematrix · Mar 22, 2013

hi,

the US stock market are about to go for a very nice correction.

I know there are people talking about spx 1600, 1700 etc..

but we going to spx 1500 first, and i think this will happen in the next two weeks.

I base this prediction with correlation and volatility. if you look at the correlation of US equities with anything, they are so out of bound - and pretty much all risky assets are co-integrated so I think we're going to see some sharp fixes coming up.

all the signs are that the market is topping up. at max we could see spx 1570 but is 20 points worth possible gain of 70-100 points?

small_beer · Mar 22, 2013

Quote from bluematrix:

hi,

the US stock market are about to go for a very nice correction.

I think we are going up, correction or not. We will newer highs this year, IMHO. This market looks pretty resilient to shorting, I am afraid, so I would be careful.

I have been wrong before and I am basically a day trader, so I don't care that much, anyway, but in the next few months we are likely to see new highs in Dow, IMO.

chicagodon · Mar 22, 2013

Quote from bluematrix:

hi,

the US stock market are about to go for a very nice correction.

I know there are people talking about spx 1600, 1700 etc..

but we going to spx 1500 first, and i think this will happen in the next two weeks.

I base this prediction with correlation and volatility. if you look at the correlation of US equities with anything, they are so out of bound - and pretty much all risky assets are co-integrated so I think we're going to see some sharp fixes coming up.

all the signs are that the market is topping up. at max we could see spx 1570 but is 20 points worth possible gain of 70-100 points?

How many future contracts are you short? Post your broker statement showing your position.

Wide Tailz · Mar 22, 2013

The Market has been in a holding pattern all week with the smooth up trend busted, and big headline risk next week.

Speaking of chart correlations, here is some lite reading:

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-03-22/guest-post-how-do-massive-stock-market-rallies-end

Lucrum · Mar 22, 2013

Oh look! ANOTHER top prediction.

I wish one of you expert prognosticators would finally get one right. Ya know, so we can all get rich being short.

small_beer · Mar 22, 2013

Quote from Lucrum:

I wish one of you expert prognosticators would finally get one right.

They do get those right from time to time. The thing is not consistently. Different people on different occasions. The key to getting wealthy in this business is being consistent. Getting rich quick is often the slowest way to reach this goal.

Lucrum · Mar 22, 2013

Quote from small_beer:

They do get those right from time to time....

Just off the top of my head I'd guess about...1 in 20 roughly.

Last week the bar tender asked if I wanted a small beer or a large beer. I told I preferred - party size.

chicagodon · Mar 22, 2013

I'd be shocked if he was short 1 mini. Just post your statements.

QuantWizard · Apr 25, 2013

Quote from bluematrix:

hi,

the US stock market are about to go for a very nice correction.

I know there are people talking about spx 1600, 1700 etc..

but we going to spx 1500 first, and i think this will happen in the next two weeks.

I base this prediction with correlation and volatility. if you look at the correlation of US equities with anything, they are so out of bound - and pretty much all risky assets are co-integrated so I think we're going to see some sharp fixes coming up.

all the signs are that the market is topping up. at max we could see spx 1570 but is 20 points worth possible gain of 70-100 points?

These two are not indicators of a correction. Assets have been widely correlated since the Lehman crash in 2008. And volatility doesn't say anything about market direction.