Time to go LONG OIL?

[Jahajee]

Bottoming action around 100 but ... even with Chavez threatening to stop oil exports to US (bluff bluff bluff) and Ike nearby, Crude remains dead in the water, not even a slight pop up.

 

[scriabinop23]

Quote from Jahajee:

Bottoming action around 100 but ... even with Chavez threatening to stop oil exports to US (bluff bluff bluff) and Ike nearby, Crude remains dead in the water, not even a slight pop up.

Here's what happens over the next 2 weeks:

Oil goes down $10-15, wholesale gasoline goes up $1-1.50.

Lets say 20% of US gasoline (3mb/d) is offline for 3 months... That'll enable a 90 million barrel build of crude, and likewise a 90 million barrel draw of gasoline.

Maybe my prognostication might be worth coming back to in a month.

 

[Landis82]

Crude will not be able to mount a decent rally until all of those Gulf Coast refineries come back "on-line" and that could take the rest of this week . . . Also, the Paralympics in Beijing end on Wednesday.

Measured-move projects to $86.00

 

[White Horse]

crude oil traded today below the range described by the first trading day of the year... that might signal further declines