Time to get real long??
- Thread starter bungrider
- Start date
Did you mean "rising unemployment"? Could be just me, but an "upturn in unemployment" sounds a bit ambiguous.
The thing is, given the exact same data two economists can (and routinely do!) make diametrically opposed forecasts for the future. Like a curve-fit trading system, econometrics does a great job of describing the past but often falls down trying to call the future.
Is unemployment "high" by historical standards (or approaching that level)? Is inflation really "high" by historical standards (or approaching that level)?
Are the traditional measures of inflation and unemployment accurate since they've been changed so many times over the years and leave so many things out? (more rhetorical than anything else)
Dan: I'm certainly not trying to be ambiguous. What I am saying is that there has not been the deceleration in wage growth that one would expect after a year of disappointing (bad) payroll numbers. I'm neither an economist nor a systems guy. I'm just a trader who tries to intuitively predict what the "headlines" will be, perhaps days, weeks, or never...down the road. What I can state as fact is that the Fed Funds contract is pricing in 100 basis pts. of tightening over the next year. Given that stocks are in as much of a crisis as they were during the easing cycle, I'm led to believe that fixed income traders are concerned not about the deflationary ramifications of falling equity prices as much as they are focusing on the inflationary aspects of a lower dollar, strong gold ,crude, and grain prices that are subtly 30% off their lows.
My opinion is that the Fed is boxed in. If producer prices spike, they have to tighten and risk putting stocks in a tailspin. If the Fed does not respond, stocks may still break and take the long end of the curve down with them. Just my opinion (B.S.), but it's like the old saying, you don't know until you bet.
Quote from tradex21:
If you folks think there is going to be a discernible bottom I suggest you go out and renew your subcription to Forbes or some such publication. Yes, we might have some type of Summer Rally or Pop of some type, but this market is going to grind sideways for years. And I mean years. At least three years and perhaps seven years. We should maintain a trading range from 7900 to 10,600 on the Dow for many a moon. Maybe as low as 5-6000 and as high as 11,300. But this puppy ain't going anywhere for a long time. The "investor class" has taken quite a cleaning and they will be in no hurry to rush the entrance anytime soon. After the 1930-32 Bear Bust they didn't come back until the Mid 1950's! The 72-74 Bear throttled their interest until 1983! And we are just past the worse fleecing of the sucker since 1925-29! Probably even worse. Hone up your daytrading skills in Soybeans, Crude Oil, Cocoa and Sugar, soon you will find a 100 point range day in the Dow a monster session. Don't kid yourself about any longterm securities bottom.
one of the better predictions on ET
sherlock holmes
Quote from Choad:
How do you find these ancient threads???
Oh yeah, you're Sherlock Holmes!
Good trading to all.
C
Checking those posters that are being cosidered by others as "gems" and reading their postings. Truth of matter is that in the early days of the message boards there was far more valueable exchange of information than the mud slinging that these days happens. Every now and then you come across a real gem for keeps. Well worth the effort!
Same applies to books. These days there seems to be little peer scrutiny before a book gets published but this was not the case in the days of Darvas and earlier. And one has to realise that human psychology does not change overnight, it has been the same for thousand of years and will continue to be much of the same for the foreseeable future. So a lot of the old stuff still stands.
I used to think in terms of "fear and greed" then it became "fear" alone (greed is fear of mising the boat) but recently I saw on ET a far better one for the short term trading / scalping: "bait and switch". Very fundamental emotions that are been exloited by those who know how.
Actually Maria said it in another posting: Dale Carnegie - How to win friends and influence people. Basically you can change public perception of the masses in 6 months or so. And this is true for trading too, profitable trading is based on the premise that people keep on making the same mistake as they always have.
And I am fighting regularly from making that same mistake...
Sherlock