I think that most mediocre traders would make fantastic lawyers - they're so good at convincing themselves that what is happening is whatever they think it should be (despite reality often being something totally different) - that they should market these skills and do the same thing to juries...
Time to get real long??
- Thread starter bungrider
- Start date
Well, I already exposed my bullishness on NVDA prior to seeing this thread. As far as the market overall, I agree with the others about waiting for confirmation. Reminds me of the Lefevre book about the trader saying "well, it is a bear market after all." It sticks in my head because I used to make money on the long side then started getting smacked. Now (for some strange reason
) I seem to do better on the short side. When the reverse starts happening I'll be able to say "well, it is a bull market after all."
As it turns out there was no capitulation this morning and very little fresh selling past the gap down open and a quick fake downtick.
So if they can't scare out the longs, well, then might as well torture the shorts. Have to make the days take somehow.
Day didn't prove much other than we're oversold and not likely to tank hard, all at once, unless there's a mushroom cloud in the sky.
So if they can't scare out the longs, well, then might as well torture the shorts. Have to make the days take somehow.
Day didn't prove much other than we're oversold and not likely to tank hard, all at once, unless there's a mushroom cloud in the sky.
imho friday's action was probably classic short covering
livermore talked about how he would have to wait for favorable conditions before he could dump his big size positions
what better event to let the big hedgies cover their shorts than a horrible downgap in INTC, if you were short a million shares of tech stock you would not have been able to resist covering them on Friday's open when all the world was dumping
what does that mean, are we bottoming, yes/no/maybe so who cares, rally could stick or it could fade into more stairstep slop, play the game u r good at not someone else's, calling long term action is a fundamentals game which is why guys like Soros and Druckenmiller have huge payrolls and monitor hundreds of information sources
livermore talked about how he would have to wait for favorable conditions before he could dump his big size positions
what better event to let the big hedgies cover their shorts than a horrible downgap in INTC, if you were short a million shares of tech stock you would not have been able to resist covering them on Friday's open when all the world was dumping
what does that mean, are we bottoming, yes/no/maybe so who cares, rally could stick or it could fade into more stairstep slop, play the game u r good at not someone else's, calling long term action is a fundamentals game which is why guys like Soros and Druckenmiller have huge payrolls and monitor hundreds of information sources
If you folks think there is going to be a discernible bottom I suggest you go out and renew your subcription to Forbes or some such publication. Yes, we might have some type of Summer Rally or Pop of some type, but this market is going to grind sideways for years. And I mean years. At least three years and perhaps seven years. We should maintain a trading range from 7900 to 10,600 on the Dow for many a moon. Maybe as low as 5-6000 and as high as 11,300. But this puppy ain't going anywhere for a long time. The "investor class" has taken quite a cleaning and they will be in no hurry to rush the entrance anytime soon. After the 1930-32 Bear Bust they didn't come back until the Mid 1950's! The 72-74 Bear throttled their interest until 1983! And we are just past the worse fleecing of the sucker since 1925-29! Probably even worse. Hone up your daytrading skills in Soybeans, Crude Oil, Cocoa and Sugar, soon you will find a 100 point range day in the Dow a monster session. Don't kid yourself about any longterm securities bottom.
I hope you're right, that would be sweet- dead markets are a stockpicker's best friend
i love flat index days because internal strength / weakness of indiv stocks is free to exert itself more fully w/out external macro bias, which means more plays on both sides of the coin
bring on the slop
Originally posted by tradex21
this market is going to grind sideways for years. And I mean years. At least three years and perhaps seven years. We should maintain a trading range from 7900 to 10,600 on the Dow for many a moon.
How do you know that? The Dow could 15k in 6 months or 5k, who knows.
If you do have some method of really knowing then great, we can all sell OTM options and grow rich on the premium.
