Stock lets just say I have a bit more at stake on a slow day than you ever will.. You say the mkt is gonna rally, ok I believe you, it will just rally from signifintly lower than you say...How can you say for certain the downside is limited? I would love for you to answer in more than a 2 or 3 word sentance these 2 questions...How is the consumer in good or excellent shape as you think they are? If there were no credit crisis why does any broker or bank or index that mirrors these look like a black hole? I await your response.
Time to cover last week's profits
- Thread starter stock_trad3r
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The consumer is in the worst shape since the Depression. This is not opinion, its fact. Look at any study of consumer debt to discretionary income, and it has gone parabolic! Defaults on credit cards are the next shoe to drop.
This is not important, however, as the consumer is only 70% of the economy.
This is not important, however, as the consumer is only 70% of the economy.
Would you put money behind that claim?
I do every day. I'm a day trader.
The real ugliness may take 6 mos to a year to be reflected, but it'll happen.
As for the parabolic nature of debt to discretionary income, that's not a claim, its a fact. I've posted charts of it here before, but its very mainstream. Do a google search. You'll get about 50 hits, all showing the same thing.
The real ugliness may take 6 mos to a year to be reflected, but it'll happen.
As for the parabolic nature of debt to discretionary income, that's not a claim, its a fact. I've posted charts of it here before, but its very mainstream. Do a google search. You'll get about 50 hits, all showing the same thing.
Quote from frank grimes:
I rely on Kudlow for all economic tradings, he certainly does not have any agenda
I agree, he is so neutral, hehehehe.
Stock, would you please answer my questions: 1) please explain how the consumer is in great financial shape at this moment, and 2) If there was no credit bubble, or crisis, why does every chart in the space look like hell. After that please tell us where you see the economy 1 year to 18 months from now. 4 word sentences will tell me and everyone else that you really don't beleive your posts either, or you are that clueless. Try and bring your A game to this discussion, if you have one that is.
1. The US consumer is important, but not as important as in the late 90's due to globalization. Large companies are deriving a greater percentage of sales overseas on the back of a cheaper dollar. Also, the US consumer still has access to huge credit from credit cards and home equity.
2. The charts of financial comanies has little corelation to the strength of the US financial system. The nasdaq chart looked like hell in 2002 but it rebounded huge. Charts tend to be lagging indicators.
The economy is going to recover, stocks will surge.
a rebuttal: The consumer is over 70% of GDP, joe sixpack is using his c.c. because he has no cash, it's actually negative cash...Obviously, this can't last forever, economy will get no help from it's biggest customer...Not a real great enviroment for explosive rallies, except the bear mkt variety. 2) Huh? you said there was no credit crisis, then you say charts are backward looking. There was and is a credit problem, and its going to get worse. 3) Looking out a year to 18 months, whoever is unlucky enough to get elected, I feel sorry for he/she's first year in office. IMO it's going to make this year seem tame. Thats why the market is there, I look forward to lots of money on the short side in the next 24 months.
What a difference a day makes. Dow up 180 points with no end in sight.
Hope you losers took profit yesterday.
Thats how this market works. Lure in shorts with a few down days and then blow em' out of the water.
We are still in the smartist era of web 2.0 and globalism. NO recession and no bear market.
Facebook will go public and be worth 30-100 billion.
GOOGLE AAPL MOS V MA BIDU RIMM EWZ FWLT CLF
Hope you losers took profit yesterday.
Thats how this market works. Lure in shorts with a few down days and then blow em' out of the water.
We are still in the smartist era of web 2.0 and globalism. NO recession and no bear market.
Facebook will go public and be worth 30-100 billion.
GOOGLE AAPL MOS V MA BIDU RIMM EWZ FWLT CLF