First off, it's not large compared to the size of Turkey's economy, even if it all happened in one year which is unlikely. Second, current account deficits are related to trade imbalance. You generally export more or import less to fix that, direct foreign investment is a pretty inefficient way to do that, especially such a small amount. The current issue isn't caused by a sudden change in capital accounts, that's just a symptom of deep structural issues with the economy and government. Propping it up with DFI does nothing to solve the underlying issue.
Time to buy Turkish stocks?
- Thread starter Daal
- Start date
Investors are braced for further market volatility in Turkey and across the globe, on fears the country's monetary authorities are not taking strong enough action to halt the plunging lira.
The lira is down around 40% against the dollar this year and 20% last week alone, on the back of longer-term concerns about mis-management of Turkey's over-heating economy, while a recent row between the country and the US pushed Turkey into a full blown currency crisis at the end of last week.
Last Friday, US President Donald Trump approved doubling tariffs on Turkish steel and aluminium, following Turkey's refusal to free an American pastor who had been detained in the country for nearly two years.
This prompted Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to tell citizens to "trust God" amid the rift between the two countries, while he warned today the US was seeking to "stab it in the back".
Meanwhile, according to Fidelity International portfolio manager Paul Greer, "Turkey's macro challenges are numerous and well known: an overheating economy, a sizable external financing requirement, an outsized structural current account deficit, persistent double-digit inflation, low net FX reserves and a large private sector debt burden".
Inflation now stands at 16% but Erdogan is famously known to be against higher interest rates, even though experts agree an aggressive hike would be the best course of action.
An announcement by the Turkish Central Bank on Monday morning that banks would be given all the liquidity they needed failed to go far enough to reassure currency markets.
The lira had fallen by as much as 11% to a record low of TL7.2362 in early Asian trading, according to the Financial Times, and despite rebounding was still 7% lower during the session. Investors are now hoping for stronger action when the finance ministry unveils an economic recovery plan later today.
Turkish stocks were also hit, with the BIST 100 benchmark index dropping 4%, reaching its lowest level in US dollar terms since early 2009, according to the FT.
Contagion from the Turkish crisis reverberated around other emerging market currencies, with the South African rand down as much as 10% to a two-year low, and the Indian rupee and Indonesian rupiah slipping around 1%.
European banks which have operations in Turkey such as Spain's BBVA and Italy's UniCredit were also affected, with shares down 2%, while the euro fell to $1.13655; its lowest level against the greenback since July 2017.
Investors now fear further volatility is likely in the days and weeks ahead across global markets, with some emerging market countries looking particularly vulnerable.
Edward Park, investment director at Brooks Macdonald, explained: "The market is beginning to price in this US dollar liquidity risk into the broader emerging markets. The first round of economic sanctions in Turkey were the straw that broke the camel's back for the country's economic sentiment.
"Investors are looking at it and thinking if the initially very small US economic sanctions have catalysed a complete loss of face in the Turkish government then other, similarly small, shocks may be enough to cause issues in other emerging market nations.
The lira is down around 40% against the dollar this year and 20% last week alone, on the back of longer-term concerns about mis-management of Turkey's over-heating economy, while a recent row between the country and the US pushed Turkey into a full blown currency crisis at the end of last week.
Last Friday, US President Donald Trump approved doubling tariffs on Turkish steel and aluminium, following Turkey's refusal to free an American pastor who had been detained in the country for nearly two years.
This prompted Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to tell citizens to "trust God" amid the rift between the two countries, while he warned today the US was seeking to "stab it in the back".
Meanwhile, according to Fidelity International portfolio manager Paul Greer, "Turkey's macro challenges are numerous and well known: an overheating economy, a sizable external financing requirement, an outsized structural current account deficit, persistent double-digit inflation, low net FX reserves and a large private sector debt burden".
Inflation now stands at 16% but Erdogan is famously known to be against higher interest rates, even though experts agree an aggressive hike would be the best course of action.
An announcement by the Turkish Central Bank on Monday morning that banks would be given all the liquidity they needed failed to go far enough to reassure currency markets.
The lira had fallen by as much as 11% to a record low of TL7.2362 in early Asian trading, according to the Financial Times, and despite rebounding was still 7% lower during the session. Investors are now hoping for stronger action when the finance ministry unveils an economic recovery plan later today.
Turkish stocks were also hit, with the BIST 100 benchmark index dropping 4%, reaching its lowest level in US dollar terms since early 2009, according to the FT.
Contagion from the Turkish crisis reverberated around other emerging market currencies, with the South African rand down as much as 10% to a two-year low, and the Indian rupee and Indonesian rupiah slipping around 1%.
European banks which have operations in Turkey such as Spain's BBVA and Italy's UniCredit were also affected, with shares down 2%, while the euro fell to $1.13655; its lowest level against the greenback since July 2017.
Investors now fear further volatility is likely in the days and weeks ahead across global markets, with some emerging market countries looking particularly vulnerable.
Edward Park, investment director at Brooks Macdonald, explained: "The market is beginning to price in this US dollar liquidity risk into the broader emerging markets. The first round of economic sanctions in Turkey were the straw that broke the camel's back for the country's economic sentiment.
"Investors are looking at it and thinking if the initially very small US economic sanctions have catalysed a complete loss of face in the Turkish government then other, similarly small, shocks may be enough to cause issues in other emerging market nations.
$15B is 25% of the size of the Turkeys current account deficit ($60B). It wont happen all in one year but 1/4 is nothing to sneeze at. Also, the Lira has dropped 40%+ in a short period, that adjustment will further help to close the current account deficit. I would go as far to say that the current account deficit issue is largely solved by these 2 events (but some people will only see in 6 months to a year). Markets, of course, are forward looking so they already smell that.
The other problem they got left is the corporate sector dollar and euro borrowings, which will hurt them now that the lira has repriced lower. But I dont think that is much different from periods where there is a recession and the corporate default rate goes up. Some companies will go out of business, some will lose money, some will do well. A higher corporate default rate will exist for a while and then normalize. This Turkey crisis seem to have been blown greatly out of proprotion by fake news and the revenue starved media. The government is quite solvent and could borrow from the IMF, Turkey is actually in quite decent shape!
Given that the Lira tanked by 1/3 recently the "new" current account deficit will be lower than this. So $15B, even if spread out over a few years, its going to help. It will also signal to other big players that Turkey is an attractive investment, and those dollars could flow in as well