Time to buy here

Ghost of Cutten · Aug 8, 2011

Ok, I've just gone 50% long here at 1146. Stop at 1120-1130. I've also put 1% into front-month 375 and 400 strike AAPL calls.

atticus · Aug 8, 2011

Quote from Ghost of Cutten:

I've seen you post calls without saying what % of capital you are risking, without mentioning stops. I have seen you make calls that were losers, and you didn't return to the thread with an update on the loss, or say if you exited or were still in. Double standards.

Then please share the links. Correct, I am distinguishing between pre/post hindsight BS... I don't qualify a trade with an allocation after the fact. I actually include fill prices and (heaven forbid!) stops, which can be helpful if anyone is following along.

Ghost of Cutten · Aug 8, 2011

Quote from gmst:

Your analysis seems the most probable scenario to me. Also, market has not been able to break 1150 level with any followthrough even after 2 attempts. First attempt was quickly bid up, 2nd attempt prices have hovered for a long time near 1150. Seems to me we end up aroud 1170+. Euro has stopped its downward movement, but chf has lost ground. in last 2 hrs. Crude is finding hard to drop and is more or less stagnant for last 2 hrs in a 70 cent range. Options trading desks would have already witnessed the massacre from hedging their fcuked up gammas in the morning. Value hf buyers should come at these levels; if not here, where!!

Yes and stepping back a bit, we are down 200 ES points in 2 weeks, fear is high, if we were going to crash it would have happened today and we'd be trading lower (1120, 1100 etc) with huge intraday moves, not this slow grind.

Market feels totally sold out, all sellers are done IMO, but everyone is scared and on the sidelines. As soon as a 20-30 point rally gets going, suddenly everyone will want to be long, and start to rush in. We might even close unchanged, and hit 1250 by Friday.

I'm thinking T-bond puts might be a good Texas Hedge here. If stocks rally, t-bonds should fall anyway, and they have the downgrade kicker.

pattern39 · Aug 8, 2011

Gentlemen, the bottom appears to be 1040 (head and shoulders formation). But you know how the market works, it will give us the margin of error of 10 more points, so 1030 is my guess.

1a2b3cppp · Aug 8, 2011

Quote from pattern39:

Gentlemen, the bottom appears to be 1040 (head and shoulders formation). But you know how the market works, it will give us the margin of error of 10 more points, so 1030 is my guess.

So like 100 points below where we are now?

Can you post a pic of this head and shoulders formation? I'm not seeing it.

pattern39 · Aug 8, 2011

Quote from 1a2b3cppp:

So like 100 points below where we are now?

Can you post a pic of this head and shoulders formation? I'm not seeing it.

My bad. I mean the bottom is 1140. But market likes to give us margin of error too --- so real bottom might be 1130. (Sorry about the missing 1!)

Nine_Ender · Aug 8, 2011

Quote from pattern39:

Gentlemen, the bottom appears to be 1040 (head and shoulders formation). But you know how the market works, it will give us the margin of error of 10 more points, so 1030 is my guess.

1040 was major support last year. My theory remains we are still in a longer term bull market and so the bottom this year will be higher then last year. Anywhere from 1100 to Now seems logical.
I honestly believe there are some major players just waiting on the buy programs right now for the moment it appears a bottom has formed.

Markets are not always rational, any correction to 1040 as you predict should trigger huge buying programs. That would be one of the easiest trades of this decade. I have my doubts we'll get that low.

1a2b3cppp · Aug 8, 2011

Quote from atlTrader666:

Pyramiding on the way up seems VERY dangerous.

I prefer to average down, which I have been doing into SPY over the last few weeks (although I am also hedged a bit in case things keep going lower). Next buy is at $115.

1a2b3cppp · Aug 8, 2011

Quote from pattern39:

My bad. I mean the bottom is 1140. But market likes to give us margin of error too --- so real bottom might be 1130. (Sorry about the missing 1!)

I'm still not seeing the head and shoulders. Can you post up a quick chart? Are you looking at the dailies?

shortie · Aug 8, 2011

Quote from pattern39:

My bad. I mean the bottom is 1140. But market likes to give us margin of error too --- so real bottom might be 1130. (Sorry about the missing 1!)

you sorry? you totally messed up my trade!

now i must totally reprogram my HFT box