Time to buy here

Quote from Daal:

I've seen studies showing that using stops to play bounces in equity indexes actually hinder performance. The correct way is to stay long till the quant analysis shows a big edge is not there anymore(usually due a bounce but could be just stabilization)

The stop tends to take out just when the edges are the largest
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Were these academic studies? If you have links or the paper titles then that would be very much appreciated.

I'm scalping on the long side with very "safe" entries... A flash crash problem would be a problem...
 
Anyway, back to the market. If today was going to be a serious crash day (e.g. down 10%), it is kind of running out of time to happen. If we haven't broken below say 1130-1140 within the next 30-60 mins, I think it's more likely the market is just 'sold out' and we'll rebound higher into the close.

So, I'm covering my short here to get flat. If a late-day rally looks to be in progress, I'll start getting long and pyramid on the way up.
 
Quote from Ghost of Cutten:

Anyway, back to the market. If today was going to be a serious crash day (e.g. down 10%), it is kind of running out of time to happen. If we haven't broken below say 1130-1140 within the next 30-60 mins, I think it's more likely the market is just 'sold out' and we'll rebound higher into the close.

So, I'm covering my short here to get flat. If a late-day rally looks to be in progress, I'll start getting long and pyramid on the way up.
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So break-even on the out? Prices help, especially when it's your thread.
 
Quote from atticus:

I don't recall you stating an allocation prior to the stop. I like it though. My 50-handle losses are always 1-2% as well.
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No, I didn't state one - and you don't state it in your trading calls, so clearly you don't think it's necessary. But I have stated in numerous threads what my normal risk per position is, between 0.5-2%, so it's consistent with what I've said before.

I don't size my positions based on your 50-handle losses, so I'm not sure how your personal trading is relevant to the discussion. Incidentally, I haven't seen you post any losing trades, or how you handled exits when the market went against you. Do you apply the same standards to yourself that you apply to others?
 
Quote from Ghost of Cutten:

Anyway, back to the market. If today was going to be a serious crash day (e.g. down 10%), it is kind of running out of time to happen. If we haven't broken below say 1130-1140 within the next 30-60 mins, I think it's more likely the market is just 'sold out' and we'll rebound higher into the close.

So, I'm covering my short here to get flat. If a late-day rally looks to be in progress, I'll start getting long and pyramid on the way up.
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Pyramiding on the way up seems VERY dangerous. I much rather scale in slowly and cautiously at lower prices. I expect a lunchtime bounce or consolidation here and then a little puke at 330pm when institutions come with volume.

There's too much sellside momentum (I am not shorting, rather be long, but am not bottom fishing except on extreme moves)...Think about the mentality of someone with a $50M net worth... if he's invested in stocks there's more fear and he would sleep better if he liquidates his shares instead of taking an advantage of this "low" price opportunity.

But yea, S&P downgrade, BAC getting destroyed, gold bid like crazy = too much downside momentum. The VIX is ridiculous and we will have crazy rallies but I'm going to be patient for better prices. Rather miss the move then chase on any sign of bounce/strength... especially not pyramiding up.

Also don't underestimate to govt to find a way to rally this market at the cost of inflation = no real wealth creation but makes the numbers look better for the layman
 
Quote from Ghost of Cutten:

Do you apply the same standards to yourself that you apply to others?
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Yeah, I sure do. My latest long has a 44 stop and was mentioned from inception. Your opening trade in this thread didn't mention a stop until this morning. Ironic, no?
 
Quote from atticus:

Yeah, I sure do. My latest long has a 44 stop and was mentioned from inception. Your opening trade in this thread didn't mention a stop until this morning. Ironic, no?
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I've seen you post calls without saying what % of capital you are risking, without mentioning stops. I have seen you make calls that were losers, and you didn't return to the thread with an update on the loss, or say if you exited or were still in. Double standards.
 
Quote from Ghost of Cutten:

Anyway, back to the market. If today was going to be a serious crash day (e.g. down 10%), it is kind of running out of time to happen. If we haven't broken below say 1130-1140 within the next 30-60 mins, I think it's more likely the market is just 'sold out' and we'll rebound higher into the close.

So, I'm covering my short here to get flat. If a late-day rally looks to be in progress, I'll start getting long and pyramid on the way up.
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Your analysis seems the most probable scenario to me. Also, market has not been able to break 1150 level with any followthrough even after 2 attempts. First attempt was quickly bid up, 2nd attempt prices have hovered for a long time near 1150. Seems to me we end up aroud 1170+. Euro has stopped its downward movement, but chf has lost ground. in last 2 hrs. Crude is finding hard to drop and is more or less stagnant for last 2 hrs in a 70 cent range. Options trading desks would have already witnessed the massacre from hedging their fcuked up gammas in the morning. Value hf buyers should come at these levels; if not here, where!!
 
I think we'll break through 1150... we're only a couple of handles away... we're consolidating at 1pm on low volume... NO bounce = weakness. Too much downside momentum

That said when we break 1150 today I'm curious to see if there will be a puke sell, or just trigger stops to around 1045 and then rip up really hard 15 handles.

Edit... we just dropped 3 handles as I wrote that lol
 
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