Obviously there's a chance I got stopped out at the lows, but that is true any time you exit a trade where you were wrong. The right thing to do when the market proves you wrong is to get flat, then reassess based on the new information, and decide what is the right way to position yourself going forward. It's also wise to reduce position size when you were wrong, as it's a sign you misjudged the market environment.
As for what now - I suspect that either we crash hard today, or that was a bear trap, it put in the low, and we rebound and close flat or green and then rally the rest of the week. I don't see us just chopping around all day/week. The way to play that kind of either/or scenario is to trade any breakouts in either direction, starting small with a stop, and then pyramiding up to bigger size with wider trailing stops as the breakout is confirmed. That approach will win big if a huge move occurs, and lose somewhat if it's a choppy day.
Any time you made a bet and were totally wrong, you should not just stop yourself out, but also seriously consider reversing your position. If my initial view was totally wrong, and the market is going to crash today, it should break to new lows in the next hour or two, and then keep going down until true panic hits. So, I have placed a small short position (current price 1151 ES) with a two-stage stop at 1170 and 1180, and will pyramid it on the way down if 1145, 1140 breaks and a crash appears to be on.
As for what now - I suspect that either we crash hard today, or that was a bear trap, it put in the low, and we rebound and close flat or green and then rally the rest of the week. I don't see us just chopping around all day/week. The way to play that kind of either/or scenario is to trade any breakouts in either direction, starting small with a stop, and then pyramiding up to bigger size with wider trailing stops as the breakout is confirmed. That approach will win big if a huge move occurs, and lose somewhat if it's a choppy day.
Any time you made a bet and were totally wrong, you should not just stop yourself out, but also seriously consider reversing your position. If my initial view was totally wrong, and the market is going to crash today, it should break to new lows in the next hour or two, and then keep going down until true panic hits. So, I have placed a small short position (current price 1151 ES) with a two-stage stop at 1170 and 1180, and will pyramid it on the way down if 1145, 1140 breaks and a crash appears to be on.