Time to bottom pick

Yesterdays selloff was the shorts last stand as many a bear was looking to sell the rally of the last few sessions and had a great catalyst in the hammering of the crude yesterday. HOWEVER, I think that the market makes a large move higher from here now as weather forecasters are now seeing a continuation of the colder than normal pattern at least through the week of Feb 12th, right at the coldest part of the winter. This will allow for a string of very sizable storage withdrawals that will take the current YOY surplus of +404 BCF down to flat or even deficit over the next 4 weeks. The current 6.30-6.40 price in feb is a great buy and hold in my opinion as I think there is even the potential to go and retest the 9.05 area of several weeks ago. Yes I said it, 9.05.
 
I thought it was a little strange how well natty was holding up.

Yesterday I was totally burned by February natural gas. :-(


Where do you see February crude going?
 
Goddamnit, I covered my crude short on Monday for a $0.40 profit to go long on natural gas.


Anyhow, is it crude's precipitous drop today that is capping NG gains to near nil today Comanche?

Any updates to that prediction?
 
Crude is definately helping to contain natty. However, crude is getting near an area to have at minimal a fibonacci retracement. When crude does have a bounce, it should create good spillover buying in natty.


Natty is all noise at the moment with the true breakout # being a few minutes of trading over 6.80. That will quickly get you to the 7.10ish area. From there, if weather continues to show below normal in the 6-10 and 11-14 day forecasts, I think the shorts get squeezed in the normal "fade the logic" fashion that natty loves to trade as that is where the most pain lies.
 
What's the expression... the hardest thing to do when you're in a hole is to stop digging.

Forecasts still looking very good... crude is back above $51, let's roll!

Gene
 
Ayy Captain Comanche, I sold some crude short last night as a hedge against further NG drops from crude weakness and that is currently what is saving my ass, but like Scotty says I don't know how much longer she can hold captain, she just cannayt take much more of this.

The DOE and IEA reports were a total disaster for crude.

My average price for NG is $6.249 and I'm starting to feel the pain. The NWS 1 month outlook for February certainly didn't help.

On the upside, the Bentek withdrawal numbers are finally triple digit. Projections also show Greenland blocking possible!
I am praying for some Greenland blocking to lock in the cold. Pray with me.
 
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