Time Stop for cycle completion

Quote from tradingbug:

I was wondering if others have gone down this path and was wondering how they have or have not implemented time stops after entry.

I believe that markets are cycle oriented and was pondering on having a time stop. Essentially, after I enter the market(ES), i look for the cycle to complete in a certain time period. If the timestop goes off and part of the cycle that you are looking to be completed is not fulfilled, I have the possibility of either reversing or exiting(both which seem better than holding).

I was wondering if this is useful, transfereable across markets, or if i should throw it in the toilet.

Any thoughts would be appreciated.
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1/ You should not enter unless you are 100% convinced that cycle is complete and price will reverse right away.
2/ If price will not move significantly against me, but there is no reversal, I would let stops in place and wait till I am convinced that reversal will not happen or I am stopped out.
3/ If the price moves significantly against you at the time of a forecasted reversal, just get out.
There is no universal time period to be used across all markets.
For example. I expect QQQQ to gap open tomorrow and I might fade the gap if conditions are met. Intraday cycle should be completed by 9:50est but there must be confirmation by other indicators at that time. It might take another 30-60 min for everything to fall in place. So cycle completion is just a marker in the future when reversal is most likely to happen.
Cycles TA will give you higher probability of reversal but cannot be used as standalone. Unless you are reeeally good.
 
Quote from Walther:


For example. I expect QQQQ to gap open tomorrow and I might fade the gap if conditions are met. Intraday cycle should be completed by 9:50est but there must be confirmation by other indicators at that time. It might take another 30-60 min for everything to fall in place. So cycle completion is just a marker in the future when reversal is most likely to happen.
Cycles TA will give you higher probability of reversal but cannot be used as standalone. Unless you are reeeally good. [/B]
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Even there was no gap, cycle was clearly over by 9:45 est but best entry was almost one hour late. So I do not think that time entries or stops would work arbitrarily at all.
 
Quote from tradingbug:

Thanks for the links and replies. Let me be more specific to what I was thinking. I enter on pullbacks of the dominant cycle(determined by longer timeframe). After entry I look at time, price, volume, and the current cycle status that I am entering for and looking for a profit. Time, price, and volume make a formation after a certain period of time that I think can be categorzied by where the market is in its cycle(could be wrong here). From this formation/cycle position, I have the option to hold, sideline, or reverse.

Grob109 made reference that time stop/reversing should not be made unless the human factor(i think this is volume) overrides to indicate a reversal. Otherwise, sideline is the better option than sideline/reversing. If I am wrong, please correct me.


SethArb, have you made use of mark fischers time stop strategy in his ACD method? My freind swears by the ACD method. I will take the time to read it.

Thanks again.
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I think in the context he was speaking he was denoting the human factor as when shear panic enters the scene. Not the run of the mill human activity.
 
Quote from Charlie Dow:

Trading time is arbitrary.
Trading arbitrarily will get you arbitrary results.
It's no wonder traders attend gamblers anonymous.
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gee, did you figure out this complex and original concept all by yourself or did einstein help you?
 
In the process of devising my index futures trading strategy, I had considered in some depth whether or not to use time stops...

My final system was found not to be compatible with time stops, since by the moment any feasible time stop was triggered, I would already have exited or would already be in profit...

Time stops, however, may have a profitable role if you are trading very short timeframes of upto a few minutes...
 
Quote from candletrader:

In the process of devising my index futures trading strategy, I had considered in some depth whether or not to use time stops...

My final system was found not to be compatible with time stops, since by the moment any feasible time stop was triggered, I would already have exited or would already be in profit...

Time stops, however, may have a profitable role if you are trading very short timeframes of upto a few minutes...
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Cool. I trade the 5 minute timeframe and w/in about 15 minutes of holding I usually see a nice volume push in my direction to have a successful half cycle.

It seems that extremely low volume(<2500 for ES 5 min) is better for sidelineing and indicative of a failed half cycle.

Like today from 1:25-1:35pm.

Thanks for sharing.
 
Quote from 50 cent:

gee, did you figure out this complex and original concept all by yourself or did einstein help you?
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I'm glad you are comfortable with this concept, I know others that aren't. A point stressed is better than one omitted.
 
no, in fact i was opposing what you said and remarking that what you wrote included no content what so ever.

i doubt anyone here will disagree:

Quote from Charlie Dow:

Trading time is arbitrary.
Trading arbitrarily will get you arbitrary results.
It's no wonder traders attend gamblers anonymous.
More...
 
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