Time of Day Bias for ES

Quote from reno4nook:

Good topic martys - can you elaborate a bit on those setups?
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Just my reversal setup at S/R if it yields a minimum of 2 pt. I just want to keep tallying to see if there is some hotzone for them. These are all bogus hindsights... I took only one trade today. :D
 
Quote from volente_00:

I was taught that it represents panic buying or selling from amatuers and retail during the first hour the market is open. I do know that it is the most consistent reversal time.
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I see what you mean with the 9:24(10:24ET) reversals. I used to follow these time of day reversals more closely and for quite awhile it would occur at approx. 9:10CT.
 
Quote from vulture:

I see what you mean with the 9:24(10:24ET) reversals. I used to follow these time of day reversals more closely and for quite awhile it would occur at approx. 9:10CT.
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Traditionally they explained that there are 2 reversal times after the emotional opening. First one at around 10 am or 9:00 CT after the retail buying/selling chased after the price inflated/deflated by the market makers (pump the futures and force people to buy the stocks). The second one is at around 10:30 am or 9:30 CT when the amateurs get stopped out and the market makers will take profits on what they bought from the mass or replenish their inventory at lower price. :confused:
 
I just want to put out a warning that the time of day bias does not "have to" happen. I think I would probably lose money if I try to anticipate them. I would rather trade what I see and not what I think during the hotzones.
 
Quote from volente_00:

I was taught that it represents panic buying or selling from amatuers and retail during the first hour the market is open. I do know that it is the most consistent reversal time.
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I'm not so sure it is amatuers buying. Amatuers buy the top to sell at the bottom. However the 10:30 reversal is often times buying near the bottom and selling up higher.

Here's an interesting chart. Since the year started, if you went long at 10:30 on the YM and closed out the trade MOC, every day was profitable. Offcourse, now that this has been posted to a public forum the pattern will change from tomorrow.
 

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Quote from mhashe:

I'm not so sure it is amatuers buying. Amatuers buy the top to sell at the bottom. However the 10:30 reversal is often times buying near the bottom and selling up higher.

Here's an interesting chart. Since the year started, if you went long at 10:30 on the YM and closed out the trade MOC, every day was profitable. Offcourse, now that this has been posted to a public forum the pattern will change from tomorrow.
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Thanks for blowing the secret !


:(
 
1-12-2006 reversal (2 pts) review : S for setup; T for trend

10:35 S
10:58
11:30
11:51 S T
3:39
3:46 S


Tally: #days = 2

Time #Reversals #Setups #Trends
10:00 1 1 0
10:30 2 1 0
11:00 2 1 0
11:30 1 0 0
11:45 2 2 1
1:00 1 0 0
1:15 1 1 1
3:45 2 1 0
 
I bucketed the last 2 reversals into the same 3:45 zone. I just try to put things into the closest bucket... There was a 10 am reversal which yielded 1 pt profit but I will only record reversals that yielded 2 pt profit after the bid-ask spreads.
 
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