Time is Money

mikeriley

mikeriley

This is my first thread on the Elite Trader Forum.
I hope someone may find value in this strategy.

This is a very old strategy, probably has
been around longer than I've been alive.

Parabolic Move Strategy (Time is Money)

No indicators needed, as everything is based on TIME.

Research Stocks and make a detailed list of
the average time of day stocks move up or down.
You'll identify some markets as seasonal
and/or move better at certain times better
than others.

Multiple time frames of 7 & 14 minutes.
Trade size based upon market conditions and past performance stats using optimal f formula
Entry signals based on time compression.
Following historical moves based
on a time variable. If one of the stocks on my list start
a sharp move in between a specific time - I trade it.
Exits automatic using trailing stops.

EXAMPLE TRADE:
Stock XYZ historical record shows when it
makes a down move between 9:43am and 9:45am
it averages a drop between $6 to $8

I buy 100 shares to trade XYZ at approx 9:44am with a $1.00 trailing stop.
Every time XYZ makes $1.00 profit, I add to position another 100 shares to position.
With using trailing stop every $2 move locks in $1 profit.

No trades are held overnight.

My style of trading is 83% of these trades are shorts.
Of course this will be different for every person.

Thanks for reading.
To your Trading Success.
 
Last edited:
If you can find these secret patterns, trading will become very easy

EXAMPLE TRADE:
Stock XYZ historical record shows when it
makes a down move between 9:43am and 9:45am
it averages a drop between $6 to $8
 
I guess you could call it a secret pattern if you want.
Or you could test the process and see if it's no secret
at all and much easier than you think.

The large majority of my trades
are low volume (100k to 400k)
Low volume markets experience
less choppiness in getting past
morning volatility.

I'm sure this is common knowledge,
but many low volume markets make large
moves and the volume never makes a
significant change.

I've seen markets with 150k or less
volume move 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10 dollars
or more and the volume never changes!

No idea what kind of voodoo manipulation
these computers are doing, but maybe
trading computers is more effective
than trading 1 million plus volume
markets that whipsaw regularly.

After testing multiple time frames,
the 7 and 14 worked best for me.
Not sure why, but I suspect mentally
my personality can discern
price action better on those frames.

I know sometimes it's hard as shit trying to find
a strategy that works. I've had winners do
brilliant one month, then turn to pig shit
the next month. Riding the boom & bust
roller coaster is not really fun.

Anyone can teach a strategy, but
trying to adopt and imitate a traders
mindset that helps profit the strategy
is probably more challenging.

I realize many traders will not trade unless they back test.
I no longer backtest, because I realized I was trying to
develop trades into a probabilistic edge of CERTAINTY
But the market is always UNCERTAIN and just laughs at
me spending 10 hours a day backtesting strategies.

Since I can't superimpose my emotions over backtesting
I no longer find it of value. I was doing it because consensus
agrees that it works. Or does it?

Instead of back testing, I now test a strategy by buying
1 or 2 shares in actual trading. I've learned if it does
not work with 1 share, in most cases it wont work with
any amount.

For a long time I used indicators. My screen use to look
like a Christmas tree with Santa and his reindeers.
Unfortunately Santa always failed to bring me presents.

The journey of self knowledge is not always easy.
I've learned my performance turns to pig shit after 6 trades,
so I limit my trading to no more than 6 positions per day.
Can you imagine the thrill of losing 5 trades, and
knowing you only get 1 more trade? Every trading day
that is always my real TEST.

I've always found it fascinating how trading is both easy
and challenging at the same time.
It's easy to wrap a red cape
on a sleeping Bull, but trying to ride
that same Bull after it wakes up is the real challenge.

An old friend now deceased, that was incredibly
successful with stocks and futures, use to tell me
"Mike you have to trade who you are, and not what you want".
Then he'd smile and ask "Mike, do you know who
you are yet?"

Just my opinion, but I believe trading full
time is the best business in the world.
 
mikeriley said:
I guess you could call it a secret pattern if you want.
Or you could test the process and see if it's no secret
at all and much easier than you think.

The large majority of my trades
are low volume (100k to 400k)
Low volume markets experience
less choppiness in getting past
morning volatility.

I'm sure this is common knowledge,
but many low volume markets make large
moves and the volume never makes a
significant change.

I've seen markets with 150k or less
volume move 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10 dollars
or more and the volume never changes!

No idea what kind of voodoo manipulation
these computers are doing, but maybe
trading computers is more effective
than trading 1 million plus volume
markets that whipsaw regularly.

After testing multiple time frames,
the 7 and 14 worked best for me.
Not sure why, but I suspect mentally
my personality can discern
price action better on those frames.

I know sometimes it's hard as shit trying to find
a strategy that works. I've had winners do
brilliant one month, then turn to pig shit
the next month. Riding the boom & bust
roller coaster is not really fun.

Anyone can teach a strategy, but
trying to adopt and imitate a traders
mindset that helps profit the strategy
is probably more challenging.

I realize many traders will not trade unless they back test.
I no longer backtest, because I realized I was trying to
develop trades into a probabilistic edge of CERTAINTY
But the market is always UNCERTAIN and just laughs at
me spending 10 hours a day backtesting strategies.

Since I can't superimpose my emotions over backtesting
I no longer find it of value. I was doing it because consensus
agrees that it works. Or does it?

Instead of back testing, I now test a strategy by buying
1 or 2 shares in actual trading. I've learned if it does
not work with 1 share, in most cases it wont work with
any amount.

For a long time I used indicators. My screen use to look
like a Christmas tree with Santa and his reindeers.
Unfortunately Santa always failed to bring me presents.

The journey of self knowledge is not always easy.
I've learned my performance turns to pig shit after 6 trades,
so I limit my trading to no more than 6 positions per day.
Can you imagine the thrill of losing 5 trades, and
knowing you only get 1 more trade? Every trading day
that is always my real TEST.

I've always found it fascinating how trading is both easy
and challenging at the same time.
It's easy to wrap a red cape
on a sleeping Bull, but trying to ride
that same Bull after it wakes up is the real challenge.

An old friend now deceased, that was incredibly
successful with stocks and futures, use to tell me
"Mike you have to trade who you are, and not what you want".
Then he'd smile and ask "Mike, do you know who
you are yet?"

Just my opinion, but I believe trading full
time is the best business in the world.
More...
Like a lot and big time.
Much appreciate your way of thinking and attitude.
Wow, very impressed.
Health Mister.
 
Hi qlai.

Technically I rarely look at shares outstanding or float level.

They are mostly low volume stocks, not all,
but the vast majority.

As an example this morning I was in AMBA, NET and ZM
No idea what their float level was, so I looked up their respective
levels so I could respond to this message.

Both NET and ZM are over 200 million, but AMBA is 35 million.
Probably depends on the platform also, as some platforms
share different float numbers.

But honestly, float level is not a consideration that I follow.
I don't follow short interest, or prior day OHLC info.

The only variable I use is TIME

For those who may not have the luxury of time
to research stocks based on price/time relationship,
they might try a filter, like wait until price hits a
price point. I use this for parabolic stocks that
are not on my list. Example: $4.00 for most moves

Hope that helps
 
mikeriley said:
The only variable I use is TIME
More...
Thanks for answering and welcome (as a poster). If it works for you great, I don’t see why time of the move have any persistent consistency. Are you saying that according to your data, you shorted NET today?
 
"Thanks for answering and welcome (as a poster). If it works for you great, I don’t see why time of the move have any persistent consistency. Are you saying that according to your data, you shorted NET today?"

Hi again qlai,

Sorry, but I'm not sure how to place statements in quotes.

Technically only AMBA, is on my list, that I've traded periodically since late 2015.
I used the $4.00 factor as a short entry for both NET and ZM.

Of course NET and ZM are now listed with detailed record of price move by time.

A few books that helped me understand the TIME element in the markets.

Time Factors In the Stock Market by George Bayer
Predicting Market Trends with Periodic Number Cycles by Carl Futia
 
Last edited:
mikeriley said:
Hi qlai.

Technically I rarely look at shares outstanding or float level.

They are mostly low volume stocks, not all,
but the vast majority.

As an example this morning I was in AMBA, NET and ZM
No idea what their float level was, so I looked up their respective
levels so I could respond to this message.

Both NET and ZM are over 200 million, but AMBA is 35 million.
Probably depends on the platform also, as some platforms
share different float numbers.

But honestly, float level is not a consideration that I follow.
I don't follow short interest, or prior day OHLC info.

The only variable I use is TIME

For those who may not have the luxury of time
to research stocks based on price/time relationship,
they might try a filter, like wait until price hits a
price point. I use this for parabolic stocks that
are not on my list. Example: $4.00 for most moves

Hope that helps
More...
Totally not raining on your parade, but be very careful shorting low volume stocks. It can certainly be done, but never add to a position, and have the account wherewithal to be able to watch the thing go way up from your initial entry. You are right, depending on the size of your short, you may be fighting the algo's.

I would never in a million years short a stock that trades below 300K/day. You're just asking for trouble. That's jmho, with a bagillion trades under my belt. No response necessary or wanted.
 
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