Quote from def:
The main point is what needs to be done to increase exchange traded derivative volume.
Since I am stuck at the airport waiting for a flight to London, I might as well answer. I did read the thing rather carefully.
Yes, the speech was outlining the failures of the derivatives exchanges, especially the geared-for-retail ones, IB a prime example. Increasing business is exactly what every exchange was trying to do forever, however, attempts to take business over from the developed OTC segments is usually a failure. There is an incredible number of failed products littering every exchange.
Just to illustrate the point, here are a couple from CBOT, with an appropriate developed market as a counterpart:
- CBOT muni Bond futures as attempt to take business over from BMA swaps. Open interest - 1250 contracts, amounting to 125M in notional. For a reference, a "discussion" notional on BMA swaps is a 100m, a good desk does a billion a day.
- CBOT 10y/5y swap notes, an attempt to take over IR swaps market, 40k open interest. These are just too funny to talk about.
Most of these products are not flexible enough to make people switch from well established OTC markets.
The off-exchange crossing issue is something that I believe is a crux of the exchange vs OTC business. Most of the exotics/structured desks are using off-market trading to hedge their flows. For example, when an index-linked snowball note comes out, very few desks would hedge the flows on the exchange, nobody wants to get raped by exchange market makers. Any attempt at regulation here will fail, such is the nature of the business.
This said, being a "retail" exchange has a lot of advantages and a number of interesting products can be introduced, assuming the exchange is willing to make "betting" style products traded. I believe that the main advantage of the exchanges is in the price discovery and a number of discovery derivatives a-la "GDP options" can be a great success.