Tim Morge and the well-chosen example
- Thread starter Maverick1
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There is about 9 minutes of my life that I wasted. (I say 9 minutes because I watched it at 1.5x speed and it was still ridiculous)
First of all, as you say, well chosen example, and hindsight chart analysis is what it is. But here is the big thing. There is no mention of the limit down. When price approached those lows of 2028, it stopped initially just above the 5% drop for the ES. If this guy is a pro, wouldn't this be important to mention? This is hugely important. (edit... he mentions the limit down later in the video... but he doesn't mention it at all when it hits the first low around 2030, and that is where its most critical because clearly, the buying came in to prevent the halt)
Secondly, he says he wants to see some of the tops taken out to show him that there are buyers, but these tops are at 2056/58, so he wants to see a 30 point rally before he considers a long? Sorry buddy... but once those tops are taken out, that is the worst place to be going long.
So finally he gets around to saying which highs he wants to see taken out, but this really aren't the ones he was referring to initially since he didn't scroll forward far enough. But he mentions an entry, and price comes almost all the way down to there again. Can we really believe that he held through watching it drop so far if he really did enter?
Then he says he made about 100 points on his 10 contracts and says how he left some money on the table?
Jesus... this guy is such a fraud. Anybody who pays him money is dumber than he is.
Well I wanted to hear what he was doing supposedly in real time, but it was quite obvious that his powers of hindsight helped him with the fairy tale trading.
Good point. I withhold skepticism for one time events though it is in his interest to display his prowess.
If you trade in a short enough time frame with many trades. You will have a ton of "I wish the guys saw that." moments. So, I go back to the fact that I was impressed that he went to sleep. And, I'm not being silly stupid about this. At some point, Mav will chime in and explain what we saw.
Tim Morge is either a great trader or a great salesman. Don't think there's a middle ground here... every example of his is question begging. The very concept of a median line cycle in the development of price seems extremely dodgy to me. 3 consecutive examples of the entries being annotated and commented in real time would carry a lot more weight than this cherry picked stuff.
Any median line traders care to share?
Any median line traders care to share?
Very often you read that you want to see how a trader handles the losing trades. Now I'm not stupid enough to waste time going through the videos to look to see if he mentions any of these, but it would be important to note what he does in cases like this.
You see, one of the troubles with ET is that people just talk about trading in general. Sure some of it is good, and theory is very important, but when it comes to actually trading, to making the entry and exit, there is very little to see here. The journals section has some running journals, and often we see how a trader who is consistently losing is doing it, showing entry and exit, day after day. But what about the winning traders? Never mind even seeing their specific entry and exit, how about just stats? Is it a case of +5 -5 +2 + 10 -2 +5, etc? Or is it a case of +3 -1 +2 -2 +4 -3? Maybe its -2 -2 +10 -2 +8 -3 +7. (ie. lots of little wins and smaller losses, or maybe a few big wins but lots of little losses)
The point I'm making is you need to see a whole whack of trades before you can come to any conclusion. From years of searching, I have only seen stats like this several times. And each time, it amounts to an average win that is bigger than an average loss. (ie. 2.5 points won and 1.5 points lost of very many trades) So when you put on many trades, you know that you will eek out 1 point profit. You win 3, lose 2, you win 2, lose 1.
I have yet to see how guys who are more so swing trading do it. If going for 10 points lets say, and keep a 3 point stop, do they really have a 50% win rate? Some here have even more extraordinary claims, but until you see the distribution of trades, its all highly suspect.
Everyone agrees that a 1:2 R:R ratio with a 50% win rate if fabulous. But this means you're losing every second trade. So when I see these videos, I want to see how these guys lose. I want to see that when they enter, they enter each and every time that the same thing presents itself, and if it doesn't work out, they take the loss, and, just as importantly, take the next trade. Often times, you see them only take the perfect trade that always works.
Actual trading is dull and repetitive, marketing requires sizzle.
Exactly. Is there anyone out there doing that today? Just 1? I don't think so.
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