Tightest morning range EVER!

Quote from lilduckling:

Yes....and that was a good play....YELL made a higher low in mid Oct from Sep......while the index took off like a rocket. But look at YELL now on the weekly...it bumped up against a multi month supply area. That in it's self is not enough for me to short it...but look at the $TRAN index now....thats not even an uptrend....its a stick going straight up for peets sake. Odds favor a correction at this point than the index continuing a trend line of nearly 90 degrees up. And and when (key word when) that happens...i look at YELL because it underperformed the index. I also belive oil will make another small run up at this point. The bottle neck is in the distillers not crude supply....so the numbers we get are followed by knee jerk reactions.

If $TRAN had not shot up as aggressive as it did...i wouldn't be looking to short YELL.
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You're right of course, the Transportation Index has gone straight up. I don't regard that as "bearish". I'm not even sure what the extent of a "correction" might be, or from where it might begin. Meanwhile, YELL trades for about 9X earnings. Yeah, I know, fundamentals don't mean anything.

OldTrader
 
i don't have the date (i think it was 5/27) but it was bout 4-4.5 pts if i recall. i know it was around Memorial Day. just holiday junk. a thin pit by 10:30 got much thinner and has yet to return - cuz they're gone for the weekend.

hth

take care :)

omni
 
Quote from lilduckling:

Yes....and that was a good play....YELL made a higher low in mid Oct from Sep......while the index took off like a rocket. But look at YELL now on the weekly...it bumped up against a multi month supply area. That in it's self is not enough for me to short it...but look at the $TRAN index now....thats not even an uptrend....its a stick going straight up for peets sake. Odds favor a correction at this point than the index continuing a trend line of nearly 90 degrees up. And and when (key word when) that happens...i look at YELL because it underperformed the index. I also belive oil will make another small run up at this point. The bottle neck is in the distillers not crude supply....so the numbers we get are followed by knee jerk reactions.

If $TRAN had not shot up as aggressive as it did...i wouldn't be looking to short YELL.
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Hmmmm.....this may be the first day of a minor correction.....transports very weak
 
Quote from Rearden Metal:


Maybe stops are useful for the automated black box/quant/strict system type traders...but I wouldn't really know.
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As Stridsman points out in "Trading Systems That Work" - stop losses (and profit targets) reduce the standard deviation of outcomes making the trades "less risky". The cost of this lower risk is lower return.

I have seen this in my own backtesting results in which adding any type of stop loss method almost always reduces the profitability of the system. It is still possible to trade profitable systems with stops - which I find more "enjoyable" to trade, with the realization that I am paying a small cost for that added comfort of a limited loss.
 
A'HA......morning breakout traders....:D

Funny, i was taking a break today and was reviewing some old notes, books etc to see if my head is screwed on right....

I mentioned a couple weeks ago that for curiosity i bought a book: The Logical Trader by Mark Fisher. I bought the book because some in here ( i think) made the book sound a lot like i traded the mornings moves.

Yep, the ACD method Mark uses is a derivative of my own way to trade off the mornings breakout. The book confirmed my suspicions, now i claim no originality by no means, all my trading signals etc came 90% from others. I never thought i could reinvent the wheel so i read the others goodies and simply implemented that with real bullets.

Today, i picked from the shelf "Tony Carbels" Daytrading with short term signals or something like that ..... Guess what?

The ACD of Mark and the ORB of Crabel could have been conceived in the same romper room, not to mention my own special way of BASICALLY DOING THE SAME THING. The beauty of all this is simply a reinforcement of my contentions that there is no such thing as a "HOLY GRAIL" and now here comes the part i like.

We "ALL" work with the same tools, we get a part from this book, that book, this mistake, that mistake, we see a pattern and decipher it in a certain way.

How many look at the first 15 minutes of the ES opening range looking for a ONE-WAY DAY (my definition of the holy grail, if you catch them....:p ) and take that 15 minutes to do what with? Some might use, marks acd, some might use ORB (opening range breakout) some might be what i am doing...Some might wait and take the 1st hour range breakout, maybe a mov ave cross, etc, etc.

I would be interested in others attempts to catch those ONE - WAY DAYS......

Mark adds a little secret to the opening range and calls it an "A UP or an A DOWN" crabel calls his the stretch beyond the ORB , but later says not to do that....:) , i say get the 15 minute range and add 6 ticks to the opening range on a breakout either way and go for it. The stop points are maybe back "TO the range and INSIDE it by a tick or 2. I get out because if price comes back into the range, chances are it wants to explore the other side of said range.. and if it breaks out the other side....GO FOR IT....:)


Have fun today....

PS, I also have another signal for early breakout. At 1030ET i go the way the mkt is going, this is subjective as is everything in trading, some might say this is the same as the 1ST hour breakout, but i can use this if the price is still within the 1ST hour, "OR" watch the 1030ET time spot and go with a "CHANGE" of direction at that time...then wait to see if it breaks out of the range or sputters at support or resist.

Everything i do in the market has a reason for getting in and a reason for getting out....NO guessing, hoping, wishing, or praying allowed.....:eek:
 
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