Tight Stops

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Quote from Lefty62151:

This is better than human spontaneous combustion! :D

Based on the comments, I believe now that you are both 14 year old teenagers typing furiously on your keyboards, dressed in bathrobs, and listening to loud rock music on your stolen sound systems. As for where you live, I'll bet one of you lives in Iowa and the other in South Dakota. Your moms are probably yelling at you now to get off the internet (dial-up) so your dad can use it. Neither of you has a car, you both get around on skateboards, and one of you has been "grounded" for smoking dope. Yes, thats the ticket....By the way scientist. I have never found the necessity to display my talents to the public. I like to do business the traditional way (by reference), and I do like to protect my privacy. Good luck to you both. Lefty
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This is a hilarious post, I gotta leave you that. :D

As for "displaying talents to the public" and "protecting my privacy"... Well, I never do, either! LOL! Show me any post where I did! This current challenge isn't exactly public (will happen in Bryce's room, not on ET), and as for protecting my privacy... Did I ever divulge where I live, what my name is, how much I make etc? Nope. Never. Not even a hint. I'm anonymous, and like to stay that way. As for "doing business", I'm not interested in "doing any business", and yes, any time I do, it is purely by reference.

Also, I've never been "grounded" for anything, and yeah, I've smoked some dope in the past. And so has George Bush, by the way (apart from the fact that he snorts cocaine). How about you? Never had any? Nowadays, I don't use any drugs whatsoever. They have no place in a trader's life. If you want to be a trader, you have to give up those things. Period. I thought of this because of the only George Bush quote I actually like (his statement upon being asked if he ever used drugs);

"When I was young and irresponsible, I was young and irresponsible..."

:cool:
 
As I mentioned, this site is for entertainment. I have reviewed the threads, and periodically we see the odd "guru" or two show up to inform us of their prowess. In contrast, I am just a hard working professional who as fate would have it, has been around long enough to have seen if not all, then most of "it". So the insults don't register. This evening, I have the choice of watching "Home Improvement" on cable or looking in on the ET threads. You and Scientist are by far a more entertaining combination. I analyze price action every weekend. Looking at the distribution of prices, I detrend and then analyze further to see how price movements are distributed, whether price movement exhibits stationarity, randomness and/or serial dependence. I do try to keep newbies from getting burned and seeing your claim that a person could trade profitably with a 6 tick stop, I just couldn't let it pass. Trading with small stops generates lots of trades. Unless you limit the absolute amount of trades per day. You have little chance of consistently trading profitably with small stops. For the traders with a winning game, small stops leaves you prone to being stopped out by market noise. Thus you are out of the game before your edge has a chance to make itself known, and even if your edge is substantial, you will not overcome expenses. If you don't have a winning game, small stops slows the bleeding, but just delays the inevitable end. I am not one of the pretenders posting on the site. I actually have to make a living in this business. As I have said before in other contexts, please don't change a thing. I am glad to have your company in the ES market. Lefty.
 
Quote from swheat:

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=40159

You are right on WaveTrader.
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Of course he's right. I've got the quantitative evidence to prove it. I just won't divulge it here, for obvious reasons.
Apart from that, it only takes one look at the current daily range of the ES to see what kind of stops are reasonable, and what aren't.

Let the crowds of the market paddle for the siren calls of the professionals, treading water in their 3-point life rafts. I am glad to have witnessed this expose of common thinking. It has truly enlightened me to the amount of actual "free lunch" opportunity available in the markets. :)

S
 
Quote from Lefty62151:

They don't make it with 6 tick stops. Someone isn't doing the math. If pullbacks average 2 to 2.5 points, with a 6 tick stop you are getting stopped out at these places. HELLO.....Look, stop size relates to the type of trade. As you move out on the temporal horizon, you have to have a bigger stop or you will not overcome expenses. This is basic. No controversy on this point. As to the idea that a particular entry will fix that problem, sorry no sale. It is very unlikely that anyone will be able to find an entry technique that insures that a trade will move positive immediately. This is especially true in a noisy market like the ES. This means that no matter how good you are, a percentage of your entries are going negative right away. OK, thats my good deed for the day. Good luck and please do continue with your "secret" stop strategy on Monday. Lefty.
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If "pullbacks" average 2-2.5 points, then why not use that knowledge and put your entries 2 points lower, instead of chasing the market and being the n00b buying at the extreme of the retracement every time? I mean - this is what you seem to be doing, correct?

Sorry to have to say that, but using 2.5pt stops for daytrades on the ES nowadays is what the suckers do. Those that pay the high-volume pro's. No justification, unless you have a larger outlook, like swing trade.

I mean, have you ever considered putting your entries just above where your stop is, for the same type of trades? How much would your R:R grow? How much would this R:R compensate for obvious lower frequency?

You can not possibly deny that I have a point here, because that is how I trade, I enter where the suckers (almost) exit. And it works. You should consider giving up frequency in favor or smaller stops. It will improve your bottom line.

The bottom line is that your entries are too aggressive for the spoo. That's why your stops are so large. Common n00b syndrome.
This information was provided to your for free. Make the best of it.

S
 
Scientist:
Its a joke man. I take my work seriously, but this is not the end of the world. If you two gentlemen fight it out on the financial battlegrounds of the internet, the sun will surely rise on one or more of us in some hemisphere (I am still suspicious as to your locations). I simply disagree as to whether or not one can trade (the ES) with a 6 point stop loss. Having done the analysis on a regular basis, I would say the chances are quite slim, extremely slim in fact. Frankly, anyone who wants to do more than conjecture can find out the truth of the matter by subjecting intraday charts to analysis. If an average pullback in the ES is 2 to 2.5 points, then a 6 tick stop loss is going to get hit quite often is it not? The rest is just my warped sense of humor I assure you. Lefty

Man you guys are something, Look Einstein, I entered the market on Friday after it bounced off the 1172 handle. I never entered again, BECAUSE I HAD A PROPER STOP FOR MY SYSTEM. My goal is to anticipate a trend day, enter once and hold to the close. Thats how I do it. By all means gentlemen, show me how you improve on that!!!
 
Quote from Scientist:

What exactly to you mean by that, huh? The fact that I've mentored people?
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No, the point is that not too long ago you were holding up your only mentor as an example of someone with integrity- and worthy of emulation- because this nameless felllow would never take even a cent from anyone he mentored. This while generally putting down most of the vendors who charge.
Recently(last month) your stance changed and now you promote yourself as the mentor who has more students than he could handle for the rest of his life - this despite being only in your twenties.

So while your mentor(the anonymous fellow) , was a generous man "I believe in my mentor being very genuine one is because I've never been charged a cent."" "" (from an old post)

he seems recently to have changed:

""As for me, I do what my mentor did, that is charge a basic fee ... to keep the mentored working and motivated .. while taking a very generous share of the student's profits once he turns profitable.""

It seems this later version of your mentor is the one you wish us to believe in. The reason for this is fairly clear...

Quote from Scientist:

Plus, like I mentioned I have a waiting list that will last for the rest of my life, and not interested in any new people. I don't even care.
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Now I want you to contact Steve Rifkin and ask him for a free trial which will be live with voice on the ES.

This is no bullshit I taught him the finer points but he is one of the best.

 
What part of my post are you not reading. You have charts. Look at the trend days. As I have said previously, I prepare for trend days. I enter near the open and hold as close to the close as possible. My expenses are often less than $10.00 US for the day and I consistently capture the majority of the range. Unless your broker offers you free service, I am ahead on expenses. I capture most of the daily range. Unless I am mistaken, you are entering multiple times so you cannot be capturing as much of the daily range. Where exactly would I be able to improve my trading?

You know Bryce, it would be silly to expect a trader to give away their edge. Mine is simply the ability to anticipate trend days. I can tell you the likelihood of a trend day with good accuracy. If you actually have an edge, it is something else. Most "gurus" do not in fact have a testable edge and they are simply substituting market feel. I applaud you for having found a way to charge folks $1800 to watch. I never look down on business success. It is hard to come by. Absent your reponse I will talk to Mr. Rifkin, but I am doubtful that anyone can improve on my system. Lefty.
 
Quote from roberk:

No, the point is that not too long ago you were holding up your only mentor as an example of someone with integrity- and worthy of emulation- because this nameless felllow would never take even a cent from anyone he mentored. This while generally putting down most of the vendors who charge.
Recently(last month) your stance changed and now you promote yourself as the mentor who has more students than he could handle for the rest of his life - this despite being only in your twenties.

So while your mentor(the anonymous fellow) , was a generous man "I believe in my mentor being very genuine one is because I've never been charged a cent."" "" (from an old post)

he seems recently to have changed:

""As for me, I do what my mentor did, that is charge a basic fee ... to keep the mentored working and motivated .. while taking a very generous share of the student's profits once he turns profitable.""

It seems this later version of your mentor is the one you wish us to believe in. The reason for this is fairly clear...
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How unfortunate that you didn't even bother reading the thread any further. If you had, you would have noticed my explanation.

My first mentor shared outlooks, methods, attitudes, experience, setting the rules, making a plan, setting up a trading biz etc.
My second mentor shared solid, quantified, unambiguous edges, which I gladly paid for and added to my repertoire.

Is that so hard to grasp? Hey, have you got any solid edges? If so, are you willing to share them here - free?

I'm looking forward to your full public FREE outline of what exactly you do. I'm sure it will help all of us, and the ET community will love you for it.

If not, then go back into your cave, and shut up once and for all, because you obviously have finally grasped the point.

Unbelievable!
S
 
How many contracts are you trading - I can vary up and down from 5's to 20's?

Depending on the signal.

I can go long and scalp a short or go short and scalp a long.

You have a method that is inefficient.


BBG
 
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