TIF

[oldnemesis]

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/05/25/reut...ny-reports-steepest-sales-drop-in-6-qtrs.html

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/05/25/luxury-slowdown-aside-a-longer-term-threat-lurks-for-tiffany.html?__source=yahoo|finance|headline|headline|story&par=yahoo&doc=103664741

http://fortune.com/2016/05/25/tiffany-results/?xid=yahoo_fortune

http://blogs.barrons.com/stockstowa...tarnished-silver-2/?mod=yahoobarrons&ru=yahoo

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-tiffany-results-competition-idUSKCN0YH2IV

http://www.msn.com/en-us/money/stockdetails/financials/fi-126.1.TIF.NYS

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=tif

Trade:
With TIF at 62.54
Nov 75/77.5 bear call spread for a net credit of $20
Yield = 20/230 = 8.7% in 173 days or 18.1% annualized
Prob = 88%
Expectation = .88(20) - .08(230) - .04(115) = 17.6 - 18.4 - 4.6 = -5.4
(we need to make a little more that $20 in order to get a positive expectation but I don't think the market would give it to us. I'll find out on Tues morning)



Price................ Profit / Loss......... ROM %
45.00...................... 20.00.............. 8.70%
55.00...................... 20.00.............. 8.70%
65.00...................... 20.00.............. 8.70%
75.00...................... 20.00.............. 8.70%
75.20......................... 0.00............. 0.00%
76.69..................... (148.50)........ -59.40%
77.50..................... (230.00)........ -91.30%
85.00..................... (230.00)........ -91.30%
95.00..................... (230.00)........ -91.30%

PLUS Tiffany is also one of the most faked brands... with fakes to be found, not only on ebay and at those dingy pawn shops in Greenwich Village but in places like COSTCO:

http://nypost.com/2015/09/12/costco-in-big-trouble-for-selling-fake-tiffany-rings/

 

[syswizard]

Well, this just confirms the start of a mini-recession.....which probably began in Jan 2016.
Almost all premises retailers are reporting terrible sales results.

 

[oldnemesis]

http://www.capitalcube.com/blog/ind...017-by-the-numbers-august-26-2016/?yptr=yahoo

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=tif

Although we were surprised by TIF earnings
our 75/77.5 bear call spread seems to be holding it's own.

I am adding a Nov 60/57.5 bull put spread for a net credit of $18 to increase the yield from this trade. To be technical that means we are now holding a Condor on TIF.

Why do people do condors? More yield, less risk.

The net yield will now be 17.9%

 

[syswizard]

Good luck....TIF is now hitting the break-out level of a week or so ago....could be short term support.
Just saying.....